PBD Points By Defensemen

[Enoch Root]

I have been meaning to start a thread about this for a long time, and with the coaching change, this seems like as good a time as any. So here goes…

IMO, points from the defense is a very important and telling stat that correlates very highly with team success. I also think it is an area where the Flames are woefully underperforming, relative to their roster talent. With the pending change in coaches, I would like to start a conversation about how we get the team back to where it should be, and what you think the Peters regime (presuming he is in fact hired) will look like.

First, some background numbers to illustrate how important this stat is… Here are some correlations from this season that you might find interesting (at least I did):

The correlation between goals for and standings (points) was .86 (quite high obviously, and no surprise)

The correlation between goals against and standings was .79 (surprised that it was lower, personally)

The correlation between goal differential and standings was .96! It will surprise no one of course, that if you score more than the other team, you’re probably going to win a lot of games, but .96 is really high – very close to a straight cause and effect.

(Note: these are explanatory relationships here, I am not trying to predict next season, just explaining this season).

Obviously, if we can improve GF, or reduce GA, we will improve goal differential, and thus improve in the standings. Easy. Except everything that happens in hockey affects these things, so isolating issues is difficult and conversations become convoluted quite quickly. I want to talk about scoring from the D because I think it’s pretty important and hopefully can be isolated for useful conversation. And you might be surprised by the correlation.

The correlation between points by defensemen (PBD) and standings was .79.

Yes, the correlation between PBD and success is just as strong as the correlation between GA and success (that really surprised me). Not only that but:

15 of the top 16 teams for PBD made the playoffs. 15 of 16 (and most years that I have looked at it is at least 14). The only outliers this year were: the Islanders were 11th and the Devils made the playoffs even though they were 23rd. That’s it.

The top 10 teams all made the playoffs, and 5 of those 10 teams will make
the 2nd round (WPG was 12th, PIT was 14th, and BOS was 16th)

The interesting thing about this, IMO, is that it is something that you can somewhat isolate to discuss, and can directly work on and improve. Which brings us to the Flames.

Calgary was 24th in PBD this year, 27th in GF, 19th in GA, and finished the year 20th overall. I think you would have been hard pressed to find anyone who would have predicted that the Flames would have finished in the bottom 30% of the league in PBD before the season started. But they did. Personally, I don’t think it’s a talent issue – the Flames PBD in the last 5 years is:

13/14: 163 Pts (Gio, Brodie, Russell, Wideman, Butler, Smid, O’Brien)
14/15: 195 Pts (Wideman, Gio, Brodie, Russell, Engelland, Diaz, Smid)
15/16: 203 Pts (Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, Wideman, Russell, Engelland, Jokipakka, Nakladal)
16/17: 176 Pts (Hamilton, Gio, Brodie, Wideman, Engelland, Stone, Jokipakka, Kulak)
17/18: 146 Pts (Hamilton, Gio, Brodie, Hamonic, Stone, Kulak, Bartkowski)

IMO, this year’s group was the best of the bunch. A case can be made for the 15/16 group, but Wideman was already past his best-before date, and Hamilton was only 22. Regardless, there is no case that can be made that this group was the worst of the bunch, or to justify the paltry 146 points.
So I have two questions: how do we improve this? And how will Peters’ coaching affect it?

In so far as how we can improve it, three things immediately come to mind: have the D join the offense more; make better personnel choices on the PP; and have more team success in general. But I would like to hear your thoughts.

And I would like to hear your thoughts on Peters and his utilization of the D. I haven’t watched his teams enough to have any strong opinions. I have heard some mixed comments though, some saying he likes to involve the D, others saying he doesn’t. The purpose here is not to create a bitch about Peters thread (not at all), but the fact is that CAR was 26th with 134 pts, despite their D consisting of Hanifin, Faulk, Slavin, Pesce, van Riemsdyk, Fleury and Dahlbeck.

So which is it? And how do we Make OurD Great Again?


And please, for the love of all things hockey, don’t turn this into another Peters-whining thread. Or Gulutzan-bashing, for that matter. Thanks.

[Textcritic]

Excellent thread. Thanks, Enoch.

The only thing I have to contribute is that I think the neutering of the Flames defence is probably related to Gulutzan's weird disdain for point-shots (I never understood this).

[Rubicant]

Great thread. Unfortunately, I am on my phone so it’s a pain to type that much, but aside from your suggestions for improvement, my main one is:

Allow more fluidity and aggressiveness from the defence in the offensive zone. Let them pinch. Let them roam. Make the other team have to defend a far less predictable attack in general. It will require discipline from our forwards to cover the point when our defence vacate it but I think it will use what should be the greatest strength of our team - offence from the defence.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I'll just echo what others have said, I'd like to see the D join the rush a bit more and have the green light to be more aggressive offensively. And let's face it, if the PP improves (it better) some numbers will jump up a bit.

My main concern and part of the drop off for me is Brodie. He's looked much different recently and that's not to bash GG, he just looks like a guy making strange and wrong decisions all over the ice. He just looks.........off. And it doesn't matter who he plays with or what side of the ice he's playing, he just looks lost at times. If he could find his game again it would make a big difference.

[GGG]

I think there could be an Eakins Corsi problem here.

If as a result of this knowledge you work to improve defensive scoring rather than just try to improve do you change the underlying factors that cause the correlation.

If you actively increase your shots on net to improve Corsi and decrease your shot quality and thus change the base assumptions.

So in the defense scoring do good teams pick up more goals in transition and have better power plays? Is there a goals off the rush stat somewhere

Its definately interesting but I think the cause needs some thought out into figuring out what this is really measuring.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I'll just echo what others have said, I'd like to see the D join the rush a bit more and have the green light to be more aggressive offensively. And let's face it, if the PP improves (it better) some numbers will jump up a bit.

My main concern and part of the drop off for me is Brodie. He's looked much different recently and that's not to bash GG, he just looks like a guy making strange and wrong decisions all over the ice. He just looks.........off. And it doesn't matter who he plays with or what side of the ice he's playing, he just looks lost at times. If he could find his game again it would make a big difference.

You’re saying it doesn’t matter what side of the ice he’s on but did he play RD for a single shift this year?

[Itse]

The conclusion I would draw from this is that in modern hockey you have to give your defensemen freedom to play offense in order to succeed. And then figure out how to let that happen without blowing your defense apart.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think there could be an Eakins Corsi problem here.

If as a result of this knowledge you work to improve defensive scoring rather than just try to improve do you change the underlying factors that cause the correlation.

If you actively increase your shots on net to improve Corsi and decrease your shot quality and thus change the base assumptions.

So in the defense scoring do good teams pick up more goals in transition and have better power plays? Is there a goals off the rush stat somewhere

Its definately interesting but I think the cause needs some thought out into figuring out what this is really measuring.

Excellent point and I agree 100%.

But the fact remains that we have to get more from the D. Especially since the D is (theoretically at least) the strength of the lineup.

[drewtastic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Excellent point and I agree 100%.



But the fact remains that we have to get more from the D. Especially since the D is (theoretically at least) the strength of the lineup.

Exactly, especially because (as your OP shows), the D seems to have the capability to give more.

I agree with the general sentiment about allowing the mobile D-men (like Hamilton, Brodie, Gio and even Kulak) to engage more in the offensive zone.

Watching Winnipeg in the playoffs, I’ve noticed how often their D will jump into the cycle, with their forwards consciously replacing them positionally so as to ensure team-defensive responsibility. It seemed that under Gulutzan, the D were asked more to stay at the points and get the puck on net as a means of creating second chances in tight. This isn’t a terrible strategy per se, but given how little room there is on the ice nowadays, it’s really hard to get point shots through. Teams have to find creative ways to create space. Activating the D in this manner seems to be one way successful teams are doing it. (Plus, if all 5 players can move around constantly, they have a pretty good chance of wearing out opposing defenders.)

I think with the Flames’ D and overall speed up front, they should be able to do this more regularly, instead of funnelling wrist shots to the net from the points.

PS: great thread about a really key aspect to the Flames’ success going forward! (Pardon that pun.)

[DeluxeMoustache]

The one thing that Hartley liked to do, and worked well, was the fast transition.

Basically when you get the puck in your own zone, go!
If the other team has 2 wingers deep, D joins the rush to create a 4 on 3 moving up ice. Use it to create havoc and don’t allow the other team the opportunity to get set for the attack

The D had the green light but were responsible for hustling back.

Brodie was great in this structure and I hope we see it again.

Sarich complained about the direction from Hartley not to pass backward but that was intended to reinforce the importance of that quick transition.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by heep223

You’re saying it doesn’t matter what side of the ice he’s on but did he play RD for a single shift this year?

Not sure how many shifts he took at RD, I'm saying regardless he just has looked different for a while now. He's made some really poor choices all over the ice and his dynamic skating isn't on display as much anymore. It's not like he's playing well but playing LD is screwing up his game, he just looks 'off' to me. If they put him back at RD full time and he picked up his game again I'd be beyond shocked because I don't think that's what's holding him back at all.

[GranteedEV]

Hamilton has become a machine more than a player. He shoots a lot and sometimes they go in, but there's a fluidity missing that he had his first year here. Regardless, he's what he is, he'll produce in any kind of system given the nature of his skillset.

Giordano is a guy who's really fallen off offensively. He'll still get his but he's getting them the way he did under Brent Sutter. It's no coincidence that from 2013-16 Giordano had 151 points in 210 games (59 point pace). The green light to jump in benefitted him the most as he was a relentless superstar.

Brodie is better on the right side. Doesn't mean he can't play the left but he produces more of his high-end offense from the right. Not being able to stretch the ice or skate the puck has hurt him a lot, probably more than the shift to the left. We need Brodie to be dazzling with his feet and hands. I would bump Kulak up to the top four to be his partner, I think this is a pairing that could really work.

Hamonic is a guy who needs a shoot-first partner. He did not fit with Brodie because Brodie likes to make that blueline pass to his partner for the one-timer (as we've seen with Giordano and Stone, as well as to a smaller extent his success when partnered with Russell and Hamilton). I think Kylington-Hamonic is a partnership that could really work as Kylington loves to shoot and Hamonic could be a steadying presence for the rookie.

So
1) Tweak the Pairings

Giordano-Hamilton
Kulak-Brodie
Kylington-Hamonic

2) Utilize a system in which defensemen can stretch pass. It doesn't have to be Hartley hockey at all. Quennville hockey has a lot of stretch pass in it.

3) Utilize habit-building off the ice in which defensemen don't just shoot from the wall. Dmen need a bit of time with the puck to make a play, even if you concede up a potential shot attempt. Brodie in particular is a guy with Tanguay type instincts that has struggled with a volume shooting mentality, but Giordano has also been impacted and seemingly Hamonic too.

4) Forwards need to be instructed to cover high and contain a rush if it happens. Failed pinches happen. They are not always bad pinches - sometimes opponents are just good. Your F3s need to be covering instinctually. In our group Jankowski, Ferland, Backlund, and Versteeg did a good job at this, but not as good a job as they did under Hartley. Coaching has to preach a five man attack. Dmen vacating the point and forwards vacating the deep areas.

5) Use the off-wing and high slot to get quick releases on breakdowns. When defenses collapse the high slot is almost always open but you have to attack it. Remember this goal Aaron Ekblad scored on us:



Well that's a goal that was probably never scored once by our team in the last two years. A Dman on his off wing waiting for the seam-pass out of the cycle. We've made these kind of passes before, under Hartley, but they were removed by Glen. Bring them back. This is how you cycle in today's NHL.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Not sure how many shifts he took at RD, I'm saying regardless he just has looked different for a while now. He's made some really poor choices all over the ice and his dynamic skating isn't on display as much anymore. It's not like he's playing well but playing LD is screwing up his game, he just looks 'off' to me. If they put him back at RD full time and he picked up his game again I'd be beyond shocked because I don't think that's what's holding him back at all.

All I know is that anytime he’s played the left side in the last 5 years, he’s looked horrible. Maybe not causation but certainly correlation and seems super obvious to at least try him back where he feels more comfortable.

Or maybe Gio just elevates whoever he plays with.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Not sure how many shifts he took at RD, I'm saying regardless he just has looked different for a while now. He's made some really poor choices all over the ice and his dynamic skating isn't on display as much anymore. It's not like he's playing well but playing LD is screwing up his game, he just looks 'off' to me. If they put him back at RD full time and he picked up his game again I'd be beyond shocked because I don't think that's what's holding him back at all.

I would wager that even last year, despite probably playing 5-10% of his shifts on the right, a good 30-40% of his most dangerous offensive plays including points started on the right.

You're right, there was still something off about his game beyond the side of the ice he was on, but he's still a guy who thrives on the right. It's a two-fold issue.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by heep223

All I know is that anytime he’s played the left side in the last 5 years, he’s looked horrible. Maybe not causation but certainly correlation and seems super obvious to at least try him back where he feels more comfortable.

Or maybe Gio just elevates whoever he plays with.

Yeah I think that's part of it too, Brodie was confident with Gio and they meshed so well for a while Brodie wasn't really overthinking, he was just playing.

And I wasn't really just thinking Brodie offensively (even though that's the point of the thread) but defensively lately he's made some really strange and poor decisions. I don't know what's up with him but if we could get Brodie from 2/3 years ago it would be massive.

[savardandjokinen]

If bill peters can fix Brodie, we are in much better shape. Brodie, Hamonic and Stone could all have better season. Put Brodie with either Stone or Gio and I think we’re in better shape

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I would wager that even last year, despite probably playing 5-10% of his shifts on the left, a good 30-40% of his most dangerous offensive plays including points started on the right.

You're right, there was still something off about his game beyond the side of the ice he was on, but he's still a guy who thrives on the right. It's a two-fold issue.

Yeah I'd have no problem with him going back to RD full time at all, if it helps his game fine with me. I just want him to find his mojo again. He had some really painful games last year. We all know he's better than that.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Yeah I'd have no problem with him going back to RD full time at all, if it helps his game fine with me. I just want him to find his mojo again. He had some really painful games last year. We all know he's better than that.

Does anyone else remember how good Brodie was in Game #2 this season against the stupid Jets? I recall watching that game and thinking that he had figured it out.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

13/14: 163 Pts (Gio, Brodie, Russell, Wideman, Butler, Smid, O’Brien)
14/15: 195 Pts (Wideman, Gio, Brodie, Russell, Engelland, Diaz, Smid)
15/16: 203 Pts (Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, Wideman, Russell, Engelland, Jokipakka, Nakladal)
16/17: 176 Pts (Hamilton, Gio, Brodie, Wideman, Engelland, Stone, Jokipakka, Kulak)
17/18: 146 Pts (Hamilton, Gio, Brodie, Hamonic, Stone, Kulak, Bartkowski)

In so far as how we can improve it, three things immediately come to mind: have the D join the offense more; make better personnel choices on the PP; and have more team success in general. But I would like to hear your thoughts.

IMO a big part of the reason why the defensemen scoring is down is because we didn't have two good scoring lines. As the teams scores more goals, as our GF goes up our defensemen are typically going to get more points as a result.

13/14: 163 Pts 209 GF 15.7% PP
14/15: 195 Pts 241 GF 18.8% PP
15/16: 203 Pts 231 GF 17% PP
16/17: 176 Pts 226 GF 20.2% PP
17/18: 146 Pts 218 GF 16% PP

So there is some correlation between GF and Points by Defensemen. Doesn't explain it all. Not a strong correlation between PP% and Points by Defensemen but it has to have an effect as well.

Seems clear that the defensemen got a slightly higher percentage of points under Hartley than Gulutzan. Obviously Hartley's stretch pass, quick break offense may have contributed.

Part of the weak year last year in terms of points from the backend can be explained by the fact that GG didn't play two defensemen on the points for half the year on the 1st unit PP. Only Brodie had the opportunity to get points for half the year with the 1st unit and personally I'm not even sure Brodie should be on the PP at all, I don't think thats a strength of his. Were Hamilton and Giordano to have been on the 1st unit PP all year surely their points would've been higher.

Will points by defensemen change with Peters? Hard to say. But if Treliving gets a bit more offensive depth and Peters has more success than GG as a result the GF will go up and the PP% will go up and so should the Points by Defensemen as they are all somewhat related.

Overall I think the biggest thing last year was that we only had 1.5 scoring lines. So for over half the game we were a black hole offensively. If the roster can be set up so that we have 2.5 scoring lines we'll be in a much, much better position to be scoring.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Great thread Enoch,

I have one question. When determining the correlation numbers, did you just look at last season or have you looked back at multiple seasons over the last few years? The only reason I ask is that you might find the data varies a fair amount from year to year.

That being said, the teams with high end defensemen usually have success. Think of the teams that missed. How many really good defensemen do they have? How many guys that you could conceivably put on an all-star roster?

Buffalo: Ristolainen
Ottawa: Karlsson
Arizona: OEL
Montreal: Weber? (might be a stretch at this point in his career)
Detroit: ---
Vancouver: ---
Chicago: Keith (mostly defensively though)
Rangers: Shattenkirk supposedly, but he's pretty underwhelming now
Edmonton: LOL
Islanders: ---
Carolina: --- (plenty of talent depth, but no stars yet)
Calgary: Hamilton, Giordano
Dallas: Klingberg
St. Louis: Pietrangelo
Florida: Ekblad, Yandle (missed by 1 point)


What's weird is that when I look at that list, I see a lot of very talented offensive defensemen. I know that overall points by defensemen is the argument, and you need depth for that, but shouldn't some of those heavy hitters make up for it a little. Is PBD a product of good teams that score a lot of goals so the defensemen get more secondary assists etc., or is it a direct cause and effect?

At any rate, I agree in principle that the Flames have the talent both offensively and defensively from the d-group to be on the same level as Nashville. All it takes is a strategy that allows them to play to their strengths. Gio and Dougie both have great wristers and good offensive instincts. Brodie is a smooth skater and great passer. Stone has a cannon of a shot (needs to work on accuracy). Hamonic is a much better offensive player than he showed last year because he had to make up a lot for Brodie's questionable defensive play. Even Kulak showed that he has some offensive abilities at times later in the year. That's not taking into account some of the prospects like Andersson, Kylington, and Valimaki who all have displayed strong offensive games. The development system in the AHL needs to exploit this angle just as much as the NHL level needs to. I hope that a change is made in that regard to get as much offense as possible out of those kids, while still teaching them responsible defensive play.