2018/2019 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

I think you're dreaming if you think the Habs make those trades. The only trades I can remember where a top 10 pick was traded for a player was:
Stepan and Raanta for 7.
Schneider for 9.
J.Staal for 8.

Those trades were all for cornerstone pieces. Or at least the team receiving them thought they were. The Habs are going to want a top 2 D, #1 goalie or #1a/b center. We are all dreaming if we think a top 5 pick can be had for Brodie, Bennett, Janko, Backlund...

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Yeah, I don't see the Habs trading #3 OA for Bennett or Janko, but they might trade an established top 6 winger (likely Gallagher) for the latter. It would appear that a big, strong, young centre is just what the Habs need, and Janko fits the bill.

On the other hand, I'm not sure that Calgary makes that deal (getting smaller, older and less deep at centre without any increase in offensive output) without an add from Montreal, perhaps their 2nd and 3rd rounders. Of course, Montreal looks like it's in full rebuild mode, so that probably won't fly either.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Even if Zadina or Tkachuk hit their ceilings, they project to be like Phil Kessel good at best.

I wouldn't trade 24 yo Dougie for 18 yo Kessel, let alone a guy who's not even a lock to be that good.

Somebody with some sense...at best those guys aren't as valuable as a top end right shot Dman

Why does CP want to make the Flames worse so badly?

Team has to either improve for next year or you might as well blow it up.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Somebody with some sense...at best those guys aren't as valuable as a top end right shot Dman

Why does CP want to make the Flames worse so badly?

Team has to either improve for next year or you might as well blow it up.

Residual Tkachuk mania. I wonder how many fewer Hamilton trades would be proposed if Brady wasn't eligable till next year?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

The Flames really only have four pieces that land you that pick. Monahan, Johnny, Tkachuk or Dougie. Any less and they make that pick.

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While it is true that Bennett or Jankowski won't get you the #3 pick, you are equally wrong if you think the names above are the price. There is a chasm the size of Montana between the value of Hamilton and that of Jankowski.

Fans really tend to overvalue picks. You don't trade a young, foundational piece for an 18 year old that, if all goes well, might become a young foundational piece in a few years.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

While it is true that Bennett or Jankowski won't get you the #3 pick, you are equally wrong if you think the names above are the price. There is a chasm the size of Montana between the value of Hamilton and that of Jankowski.

Fans really tend to overvalue picks. You don't trade a young, foundational piece for an 18 year old that, if all goes well, might become a young foundational piece in a few years.

You definitely misread that. I never said the players listed are equal to each other or a top 5 pick. All I said is that if the Flames want to trade a player for the #3 pick, there are only four players that would get it done.

The value of the pick isn't relevant, it's what the Habs or any team owning that pick would want in return for that pick. It would have been the same when the Flames held the #4. Sure, now that we see Bennett floundering, I'm sure that we would have traded that pick. But at the time, the item in the mystery box seemed like a much better choice.

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[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

I think you're dreaming if you think the Habs make those trades. The only trades I can remember where a top 10 pick was traded for a player was:
Stepan and Raanta for 7.
Schneider for 9.
J.Staal for 8.

Those trades were all for cornerstone pieces. Or at least the team receiving them thought they were. The Habs are going to want a top 2 D, #1 goalie or #1a/b center. We are all dreaming if we think a top 5 pick can be had for Brodie, Bennett, Janko, Backlund...

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https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

Carter for Voracek, #8 overall (Couturier) and a 3rd is another

#4 overall for Fedotenko and two 2nds. He then trades one of the 2nds for Lukowich.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...-at-trade-time
Feaster's first draft. 3 of his scouts quit after he made the trade. What a GM!

Yashin for #2 overall (Spezza), Chara and Bill Muckalt
Oh Milbury you crazy clown

Weekes, Kudroc and a 2nd for #5 overall (Torres), a 4th and a 7th
Jay Feaster and Mike Milbury get together for a crazy trade! Feaster deals away another top 5 pick. Milbury deals away all his goalies so he can draft Dipietro 1st overall. WTF all around.

Linden for the #10 overall (Mezei)

Palffy, Smolinski, Cousineau and a 4th to the Kings for Olli Jokinen, Josh Green, Mathieu Biron and #8 overall (Pyatt)

Bryan McCabe + future 1st for the 4th overall (ended up being dealt up for one of the Sedins)

What we've learned from this is that you don't let Feaster or Milbury be your GM.

You are most likely right that we cannot acquire a top 5 pick without including a premium player. Although arguably something like Brodie + 2019 1st would be similar to the McCabe deal. Something like Bennett or Janko plus two 2nds actually trumps the Fedotenko deal IMO. Something like Parsons/Gillies plus Kylington/Fox + a 2nd actually is similar to the one TB/NYI deal. All it takes is one crazy or bad GM. How crazy is Bergevin feeling this week? Subban for Webber, Sergachev for Drouin says hi.

Like I said earlier the price to move into the top 5 is likely so high that it makes zero sense for the Flames to do it. The Flames aren't desperate to get in there so there's no way we'd overpay to do so. Any imagining of us acquiring a top 5 pick needs to assume the other GM gives it away in some sort of crazy deal.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

Carter for Voracek, #8 overall (Couturier) and a 3rd is another

#4 overall for Fedotenko and two 2nds. He then trades one of the 2nds for Lukowich.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...-at-trade-time
Feaster's first draft. 3 of his scouts quit after he made the trade. What a GM!

Yashin for #2 overall (Spezza), Chara and Bill Muckalt
Oh Milbury you crazy clown

Weekes, Kudroc and a 2nd for #5 overall (Torres), a 4th and a 7th
Jay Feaster magic yet again. This guy loves dealing away top 5 picks apparently

Linden for the #10 overall (Mezei)

Palffy, Smolinski, Cousineau and a 4th to the Kings for Olli Jokinen, Josh Green, Mathieu Biron and #8 overall (Pyatt)

Bryan McCabe + future 1st for the 4th overall (ended up being dealt up for one of the Sedins)

What we've learned from this is that you don't let Feaster or Milbury be your GM.

You are most likely right that we cannot acquire a top 5 pick without including a premium player. Although arguably something like Brodie + 2019 1st would be similar to the McCabe deal. Something like Bennett or Janko plus two 2nds actually trumps the Fedotenko deal IMO. All it takes is one crazy or bad GM. How crazy is Bergevin feeling this week? Subban for Webber, Sergachev for Drouin says hi.

Like I said earlier the price to move into the top 5 is likely so high that it makes zero sense for the Flames to do it. The Flames aren't desperate to get in there so there's no way we'd overpay to do so.

The only equivalent to how dougie has performed, age, and contract is the Carter trade. I always forget about that one actually. If were trading Hamilton it's got to be at least a top 10 pick+ another pick and a younger forward piece. Voracek was underperforming but solid and high draft pedigree. Obviously turned out well.

Hayes/zibanejad+9th overall+3rd rounder?

I'm not sure that leaves the team much better next season

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

The Flames really only have four pieces that land you that pick. Monahan, Johnny, Tkachuk or Dougie. Any less and they make that pick.

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You can't really say that with any conviction. Look at my post above and see some of the wacky trades for top 10 picks that have gone down in history.

Brodie, Backlund, Janko, Bennett are all valuable pieces. Perhaps their value is underrated by some fans. They alone might not get you a top 5-10 pick but in a package they certainly could.

This is a league where Griffin Reinhart was trade for a 1st (Barzal) and a 2nd. This is a league where David Rundblund was traded for a 1st (Tarasenko). All of Brodie, Backlund, Janko and Bennett are more valuable than Reinhart/Rundblad IMO. Reinhart/Rundblad weren't even proven NHLers and both have busted.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

You can't really say that with any conviction. Look at my post above and see some of the wacky trades for top 10 picks that have gone down in history.

Brodie, Backlund, Janko, Bennett are all valuable pieces. Perhaps their value is underrated by some fans. They alone might not get you a top 5-10 pick but in a package they certainly could.

This is a league where Griffin Reinhart was trade for a 1st (Barzal) and a 2nd. This is a league where David Rundblund was traded for a 1st (Tarasenko). All of Brodie, Backlund, Janko and Bennett are more valuable than Reinhart/Rundblad IMO. Reinhart/Rundblad weren't even proven NHLers and both have busted.

But now you're moving the goalposts. I said a top pick. Those are examples of 15th+. There are very few examples of packages of underperforming assets moving for a top pick. There almost always has to be a headliner piece. If a package of underperforming assets could get you a top pick, then every team could fill that bill. There are a plethora of Bennett, Yak, DalColle, Schenn, Murray, Bogosian, Virtanen, Reinharts, Stromes....

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[Madrox]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

#4 overall for Fedotenko and two 2nds. He then trades one of the 2nds for Lukowich.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...-at-trade-time
Feaster's first draft. 3 of his scouts quit after he made the trade. What a GM!

Weekes, Kudroc and a 2nd for #5 overall (Torres), a 4th and a 7th
Jay Feaster and Mike Milbury get together for a crazy trade! Feaster deals away another top 5 pick. Milbury deals away all his goalies so he can draft Dipietro 1st overall. WTF all around.
.

In retrospect, neither of those are actually that bad. Knowing Pitkanen was the pick on the first one, and the alternatives are probably Ryan Whitney or Scottie Upshall, I think you can argue that he won that trade. Pitkanen for Lukowich and a second is arguably a fair trade in retrospect, without even having Fedotenko involved. Replace Pitkanen with most of the guys in the first round after that, and the only one I don't do is probably Steen, you can make an argument for Lupul, Semin, or Cam Ward, but it's obviously a weak draft and I'd make the case that Feaster did quite well there.



The Torres one looks a lot worse if you take Hartnell, who was the next selection, but none of the dozen or so guys after that (maybe Hainsey) were worth anything at all. Torres only produced like more than a 3rd liner in about one season, so I think it's fair to call him that, so basically Feaster got a 2nd, a decent backup goalie, and a non-nhler for a 3rd liner, a 4th, and a 7th. Reasonably even, in the grand scheme of things.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

But now you're moving the goalposts. I said a top pick. Those are examples of 15th+. There are very few examples of packages of underperforming assets moving for a top pick. There almost always has to be a headliner piece. If a package of underperforming assets could get you a top pick, then every team could fill that bill. There are a plethora of Bennett, Yak, DalColle, Schenn, Murray, Bogosian, Virtanen, Reinharts, Stromes....

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I gave you plenty of examples of top 10 picks moving for packages that we could make equivalents to as well. Did not read my post above?

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I gave you plenty of examples of top 10 picks moving for packages that we could make equivalents to as well. Did not read my post above?

Nope, definitely missed that.

But now that I have, I think for the most part it backs up me more than you. Most of those have a headliner as opposed to a underperforming asset. Carter, McCabe, Fedatenko, Linden... All of those are somewhat of a valuable piece. Yes debatable, but definitely more valuable than Janko or Bennett.

I do agree that the level of stupid is a factor here. And the Habs are at the high end of that. But I try to hope/believe that most GMs see other teams underperformers as just that. Not some wacky opportunity to convert them into a star. But I'm all for the Flames shaking that tree to see what may fall out.

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[looooob]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Nope, definitely missed that.

But now that I have, I think for the most part it backs up me more than you. Most of those have a headliner as opposed to a underperforming asset. Carter, McCabe, Fedatenko, Linden... All of those are somewhat of a valuable piece. Yes debatable, but definitely more valuable than Janko or Bennett.

I do agree that the level of stupid is a factor here. And the Habs are at the high end of that. But I try to hope/believe that most GMs see other teams underperformers as just that. Not some wacky opportunity to convert them into a star. But I'm all for the Flames shaking that tree to see what may fall out.

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fedotenko when traded I think was coming off a 26 point season- 10th in team scoring-just behind Marty Murray- at age 23 - not sure that is out of range of Bennett and jankowski

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by keenan87

San Jose
Las Vegas
Toronto
NY Rangers
St. Louis
LA Kings

I think those are your frontrunners.. Rangers is the "X" factor because no matter how much they suck, they still want to sign big name FAs and players want to go to them.

There is no way Toronto belongs in that list.
Are you sure your not just being influenced by TO homeboy writers wanna it to be?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

But now that I have, I think for the most part it backs up me more than you. Most of those have a headliner as opposed to a underperforming asset. Carter, McCabe, Fedatenko, Linden... All of those are somewhat of a valuable piece. Yes debatable, but definitely more valuable than Janko or Bennett.
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Disagree. McCabe was a 3/4 guy similar to Brodie. And aging Linden I don’t see as significantly more valuable than Bennett/Jankowski. Fedotenko? He had 16 and 17 goals in his first two years playing wing. Bennett had 16 in his 1st year and a much better pedigree than Fedotenko. Janko scored 17 in his rookie year and plays centre, definitely more valuable than Fedotenko. Backlund is more valuable than any of the above. All of Brodie, Bennett, Janko and Backlund are more valuable than Kevin Weekes IMO.

I think I proved my point just fine. Occasionally GMs have traded top 5-15 picks for packages containing players much, much, much less valuable than the Tkachuk, Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamilton you claimed it would take to get #3.

I certainly agree that it’s unlikely to happen this draft. Unlikely but not impossible to trade into the top 15. 3rd overall? Probably super unlikely as Bergeron should demand a Kings ransom if he’s smart. Overall it doesn’t make much sense for the Flames to trade NHLers for a 1st with where they are at in their competitive cycle. So all this talk is for nought imo.

Far more likely we acquire a top 6 forward somehow.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Disagree. McCabe was a 3/4 guy similar to Brodie. And aging Linden I don’t see as significantly more valuable than Bennett/Jankowski. Fedotenko? He had 16 and 17 goals in his first two years playing wing. Bennett had 16 in his 1st year and a much better pedigree than Fedotenko. Janko scored 17 in his rookie year and plays centre, definitely more valuable than Fedotenko. Backlund is more valuable than any of the above. All of Brodie, Bennett, Janko and Backlund are more valuable than Kevin Weekes IMO.

I think I proved my point just fine. Occasionally GMs have traded top 5-15 picks for packages containing players much, much, much less valuable than the Tkachuk, Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamilton you claimed it would take.

I certainly agree that it’s unlikely to happen this draft. Unlikely but not impossible to trade into the top 15. 3rd overall? Probably super unlikely as Bergeron should demand a Kings ransom if he’s smart. Overall it doesn’t make much sense for the Flames to trade NHLers for a 1st with where they are at in their competitive cycle.

Fair.

But I specifically left Backlund off because I think he's underrated and would not get the value. But I think he's worth more than a pick.

We are also talking different picks. I brought up the Habs pick and I've been talking a top pick being 1-5. You've been talking 1-15 which is a far wider valuation. Bennett and Janko could definitely be traded as a package for a 10-15, 1-5 would be doubtful. But depending on the level of stupid could change anything.

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[theslymonkey]

I've also been going off of memory due to the fact that I'm on my phone while watching tv and don't want to do the searches(lazy). So my memory of where certain players were at for value at the time of the trade is probably quite weak.

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[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The only equivalent to how dougie has performed, age, and contract is the Carter trade. I always forget about that one actually. If were trading Hamilton it's got to be at least a top 10 pick+ another pick and a younger forward piece. Voracek was underperforming but solid and high draft pedigree. Obviously turned out well.

Hayes/zibanejad+9th overall+3rd rounder?

I'm not sure that leaves the team much better next season

I'm pretty sure it leaves the team much worse for the duration of Hamilton's contract. He will be the team's #1D as early as next season (Gio isn't getting any younger) already leads the league in goal scoring, is on a team-friendly contract, and has a right shot to boot. There's literally nobody in our system who can replace him at least 2-3 years (maybe Valimaki eventually).

As a defenceman, Hamilton had as many points as Hayes, a winger. And a top 10 pick outside the top 2 likely doesn't make the team this year. Overall, that's a pretty big step back, and at that point, you may as well blow it all up (imagine the king's ransom for Gaudreau and Monahan on their contracts, and you could probably get something decent in return for Gio).

This team is deliberately built with a core of players who are currently 20-25. Hamilton fits right into that group, and it's really promising to see a defenceman of that age already being an impact player. The 5 players Treliving sees as pushing for roster spots this season, Andersson, Valimaki, Kylington, Mangiapane, and Foo, are also in that age group. This is not by accident. If they have patience, the Flames could be the next Winnipeg. On the other hand, if you're not sticking with that core group, you may as well get back what assets you can and start from scratch.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

#4 overall for Fedotenko and two 2nds. He then trades one of the 2nds for Lukowich.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...-at-trade-time
Feaster's first draft. 3 of his scouts quit after he made the trade. What a GM!

Weekes, Kudroc and a 2nd for #5 overall (Torres), a 4th and a 7th
Jay Feaster and Mike Milbury get together for a crazy trade! Feaster deals away another top 5 pick. Milbury deals away all his goalies so he can draft Dipietro 1st overall. WTF all around.

What we've learned from this is that you don't let Feaster or Milbury be your GM.

That Fedotenko trade Won the lightning a cup - so as I fan I’d hope Feaster would make that trade every day of the week.

That second trade was actually still Dudley in 2000 and not Feaster yet.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

I've also been going off of memory due to the fact that I'm on my phone while watching tv and don't want to do the searches(lazy). So my memory of where certain players were at for value at the time of the trade is probably quite weak.

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I also forgot to mention that most of those examples are pre-cap which has changed the landscape for most trades. The value of ELC and picks has increase dramatically now that every team has to play by the same rules.

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