[Signing] Preds sign Ryan Ellis to extension starting in 19/20 (8 yrs, $6.25 mil AAV)

[sureLoss]

Bob McKenzie
✔
@TSNBobMcKenzie
Great news for NSH, not so great news for any of the other 30 teams that were planning on UFA shopping in 2019: Defenceman Ryan Ellis has agreed to an eight-year extension with the Preds. AAV of $6.25M. Extension kicks in for the 19-20 season.


Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
Forgot a couple of notes on Ellis. Deal does not include NMC/NTC...Ellis gets a $7M signing bonus on July 1, 2019. #ciaoagain

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I mean, Ellis is good, and that cap hit isn't crazy for what he adds, but he's not a top pairing guy on a good team and you've just signed him until he's 36 years old. I'd be nervous about that, personally.

[sureLoss]

John Matisz @MatiszJohn
Between Ellis, Ekholm, Josi and Subban, NSH will be spending $23 million on their four best D in 2019-20. Seems like a lot, but averages out to just $5.75M per player.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

John Matisz @MatiszJohn
Between Ellis, Ekholm, Josi and Subban, NSH will be spending $23 million on their four best D in 2019-20. Seems like a lot, but averages out to just $5.75M per player.

Sure, but that's because Roman Josi's making 4M per, ridiculously enough. So you'd have to assume that he's either gone, or making ~$7ish in 2020-2021.

[CaptainCrunch]

But but oilers yo (Thats a sad yo)

[SuperMatt18]

This one is a tough one to me.

Like Ellis as a player...but he will be 28 when this deal starts and 8 years for a smaller d-man is a lot.

Feel like that is one where they could have got a king's ransom in a trade, got younger, and transitioned to guys like Fabbro and Carrier.

It does make me think that rumors they are open to shopping Subban may be true though.

[savardandjokinen]

Good deal imo, the AAV and no NTC/NMC are great, even if this deal ends up being bad in the last 2ish years. Term can be considered iffy

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Sure, but that's because Roman Josi's making 4M per, ridiculously enough. So you'd have to assume that he's either gone, or making ~$7ish in 2020-2021.

Yeah but this is essentially how all perennial cup contenders operate in their window. They make the signings that keep their team together even if there is obvious long term hard choices a few years down the line. Then when they need to make choices due to cap reasons they make it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I hear you, there is definitely context here. Of course, the reason they're cup contenders in the first place is that they're essentially getting Ekholm for free - Josi likely gets $7.75 if he were a UFA right now.

Thing is, I suspect if it works out and they do get to the promised land in the next 3-4 years, they can trade Ellis for good value when he's 30 or so. So as long as you don't wait for it to be an albatross, some GM will make it worth your while.

[Oling_Roachinen]

While well above his career average, he put up 32 points in 44 games last season. A 60 point pace. That would have placed him top 10 in the league. Was a complete beast during the Predator Stanley Cup run as well. It comes with a risk, as all 8 year contracts do, but seems like a pretty easy no-brainer contract for the team.

Especially as we're talking about his last season being his 35 year old season, it's not like he'll be using a cane by the time the contract is over.

[Enoch Root]

Yes, Ellis was on a 60 point pace last year, but prior to that, he has never put up 40 points (still hasn't).

For me, Ellis is a 2nd pairing guy and will never be a top pairing guy. I don't like this contract at all.

[Northendzone]

wow, ellis is already 27 - when did that happen. i hope i have not aged during this time

[Beninho]

Imagine what the flames would of had to pay Dougie.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Sure, but that's because Roman Josi's making 4M per, ridiculously enough. So you'd have to assume that he's either gone, or making ~$7ish in 2020-2021.

Roman Josi is their captain. His number is going to start with an 8 guaranteed, and probably a 9 given the way things are going.

[Textcritic]

This deal is high, and I don’t think Ellis is a player I would choose to sign for eight years.

This sets Nashville up as a SC contender for another few years.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Sure, but that's because Roman Josi's making 4M per, ridiculously enough. So you'd have to assume that he's either gone, or making ~$7ish in 2020-2021.

By then the cap will have gone up as well. Seems like solid cap management to me. The Preds are likely to be contenders for the next few years. They've done a great job building a team from the defence out. It helps that they swindled Montreal on that Subban deal.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, Ellis was on a 60 point pace last year, but prior to that, he has never put up 40 points (still hasn't).

For me, Ellis is a 2nd pairing guy and will never be a top pairing guy. I don't like this contract at all.

Giordano didn't put up a 40 point season until he was 26 either.

56 points in his last 82 games played, +38 in that time frame, 24 minutes of ice time. Plays with Josi on the top pairing against the top lines, hits, blocks shots, top PKer last season when he was healthy, has a letter. Criminally underrated. Pretty much every metric puts him as a top pairing defender on the top defensive group.

If he was making #1 money 10M, sure, it would be a bad contract. 6M? That's Wideman money nowadays. At worst (barring injuries), you're getting what you pay for. If he does keep up his last 2 years of play though, it's going to be one of the best UFA bargains in the league.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, Ellis was on a 60 point pace last year, but prior to that, he has never put up 40 points (still hasn't).

For me, Ellis is a 2nd pairing guy and will never be a top pairing guy. I don't like this contract at all.

No way was he going to be had for something in the $5M range. Over the last 4 seasons he's actually averaged out as a .53 PPG player which is good for north of 40 points a year and that has been trending upward. Keep in mind that Ellis also plays north of 23:00 min per game, which is good for top 30 in the league and generates crazy shot volume from the backend as well. Ellis is basically the definition of a top pairing player.

Given how Nashville is built with essentially two top pairings, this deal makes complete sense. Some freak injuries are all that have held him back from being recognized as one of the premiere defenders in the league. 6 years might have been more fitting term-wise, but that doesn't really matter to Nashville at all as their window will likely be open for another 3-4 years and a cap crunch isn't at all something they need to worry about with players upfront on some unreal deals.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by blankall

By then the cap will have gone up as well.

This rationale is used to justify basically every contract longer than 4 years, it seems to me, and it never really sits well with me. Let's look at the longer term contracts signed in 2013 and 2014 and see where we stand now.

Valteri Filpulla, 5 years $25 m
Ryan Clowe, 5 years $24.25 m
Tuuka Rask, 8 years $56 m
Blake Wheeler, 6 years $33.6m
Tyler Bozak, 5 years $21 m
Alex Pietrangelo, 7 years 45.5 m
David Clarkson, 7 years $36.75 m
Travis Hamonic, 7 years $27 m
Stephen Weiss, 5 years $24 m
Nathan Horton, 7 years, $37.1 m
Christian Ehrhoff, 10 years $40 m
Matt Moulson, 5 years $25 m
Anton Stralman, 5 years $22.5 m

I'm sure that's not all of them, only the ones I found easily... how many of those look like bargains now as a result of the cap going up? Wheeler and Pietrangelo, sure. Maybe Hamonic's, I guess, but wasn't it considered a bargain the day it was signed? Stralman's is also fine, but it's not crazily good or anything. Most of them are horrendous.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Giordano didn't put up a 40 point season until he was 26 either.

56 points in his last 82 games played, +38 in that time frame, 24 minutes of ice time. Plays with Josi on the top pairing against the top lines, hits, blocks shots, top PKer last season when he was healthy, has a letter. Criminally underrated. Pretty much every metric puts him as a top pairing defender on the top defensive group.

If he was making #1 money 10M, sure, it would be a bad contract. 6M? That's Wideman money nowadays. At worst (barring injuries), you're getting what you pay for. If he does keep up his last 2 years of play though, it's going to be one of the best UFA bargains in the league.

Just because a player puts up some points over the course of a year, doesn't mean you should want to be the person that pays them the money those points warrant (see: Colborne, Bouma, etc - the list is endless).

I view Josi the way I view Giordano - it's good to be their partner. I think Ellis is Brodie two years ago, and Hamilton now (and Ellis is no Hamilton).

I look forward to reviewing this contract in a couple years.