CP Radio: First Episode in 8 years

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't know how accurate that is either, as the reason they used a 4th this year was largely due to injuries. Either way, having Kulak or that extra 4th isn't franchise altering.
Drafting a #1 goalie in a late round is.
Drafting Johnny Gaudreau and TJ Brodie in late rounds is.
Drafting Connor Hellebuyck at 130 is

Swing for the fences.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Did some digging on draft success during Treliving's tenure.

So 2015-2019

Flames ranks ...

Picks 28th (valid criticism)
GP 9th (solid given the number above)
GP/Pick 2nd

That's really good bang for buck using the most basic measure of games played.

Now to get into later round picks etc.

Rounds 4-7

Flames ranks ...

Picks 13th (moving their top picks mostly)
GP 10th
GP/Pick 10th

So Flames a top ten drafting team for the bottom half of the draft using that measure.

And for kicks ... the top three rounds

Flames ranks ...

Picks 31st (yuck! enough already)
GP 9th
GP/Pick 1st

So you can say Treliving moves too many picks, but the scouting staff is doing very very well in finding talent up and down the draft board.

Can't get any better than 1st!

Can you give us the top 10s for each category? This is very interesting.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't know how accurate that is either, as the reason they used a 4th this year was largely due to injuries. Either way, having Kulak or that extra 4th isn't franchise altering.
Drafting a #1 goalie in a late round is.
Drafting Johnny Gaudreau and TJ Brodie in late rounds is.
Drafting Connor Hellebuyck at 130 is

Swing for the fences.

I mean, we're crowing about how good the team has done drafting in the later rounds and they have 2 less later round picks than they otherwise would have if they had kept a player drafted with a later round pick, with Gaudreau himself being a 4th round pick, so.....

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I mean, we're crowing about how good the team has done drafting in the later rounds and they have 2 less later round picks than they otherwise would have if they had kept a player drafted with a later round pick, with Gaudreau himself being a 4th round pick, so.....

Let me clarify my position.

1. The team needs to collect and keep more picks
2. The team should use those picks to draft impactful players with high ceilings, not low potential players with high floors.
3. And in fact, I would suggest having more picks gives you even better ability to take that approach.
4. I don't think Brett Kulak is actually a good dman.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Listening right now but wanted to comment on the teams have figured Gaudreau out:

-Perhaps this is figuring him out all the same but what I see is CGY breakout almost always goes up the left side (perhaps every team does with majority left handed shots). The puck alwasy goes to Gaudreau when he's out there. If it goes up the wall to Gaudreau on the breakout they crash down.

Even if he gets it - he's going up the left side along the wall.

If you're defending Gaudreau he has one way to go and the d have the wall to cut himi off. CGY relied on his natural skill to beat guys. What I've always liked is the breakout goes through the centre and the puck come up the middle. In that case you have the entire ice (left, right) - think of LAK whenever Kopitar is on the ice, the puck always goes through him up the middle.

Now Cassie brought up during his 99 pt season he was cutting to middle and not doing those stop ups. Maybe he needs to get back to that.

My point is they haven't necessarily figured Gaudreau out but the CGY play style out.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Can you give us the top 10s for each category? This is very interesting.

Sure ... top ten for total picks

1. Detroit (45)
2. Carolina
3. Philly
4. NJ
4. Toronto (42)
6. Arizona
7. Chicago
7. Montreal
7. Tampa
10. Rangers (38)

Top ten for total games played

1. Columbus (1037)
2. Arizona
3. Carolina
4. Philly
5. NJ
6. Winnipeg
7. Toronto
8. Boston
9. Calgary
10. Ottawa (822)

Top ten for GP/Pick

1. Columbus (34.6)
2. Calgary (28.5)
3. Winnipeg
4. Ottawa
5. Boston
6. Arizona
7. NJ
8. Buffalo
9. Edmonton
10. Philly

In summary Calgary and Columbus are getting huge bang for their buck ... really stand out against the rest. Boston well back but the next closest.

Teams that aren't doing well in comparison to pick counts ... Detroit on their own as brutal. Rangers, Tampa and Chicago.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Sure ... top ten for total picks

1. Detroit (45)
2. Carolina
3. Philly
4. NJ
4. Toronto (42)
6. Arizona
7. Chicago
7. Montreal
7. Tampa
10. Rangers (38)

Top ten for total games played

1. Columbus (1037)
2. Arizona
3. Carolina
4. Philly
5. NJ
6. Winnipeg
7. Toronto
8. Boston
9. Calgary
10. Ottawa (822)

Top ten for GP/Pick

1. Columbus (34.6)
2. Calgary (28.5)
3. Winnipeg
4. Ottawa
5. Boston
6. Arizona
7. NJ
8. Buffalo
9. Edmonton
10. Philly

In summary Calgary and Columbus are getting huge bang for their buck ... really stand out against the rest. Boston well back but the next closest.

Teams that aren't doing well in comparison to pick counts ... Detroit on their own as brutal. Rangers, Tampa and Chicago.

It's interesting how the bulk of the games played is coming from 1st rounders.

~300 games from Tkachuk, Dubois, Werenski, all top 10 picks. Same with the Yotes, ~230 games each from their first rounders in 2016. ~300 from 1st rounders in Provorov and Konecny.

Really illustrates how devastating it is to lose picks near the top of the draft.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It's interesting how the bulk of the games played is coming from 1st rounders.

~300 games from Tkachuk, Dubois, Werenski, all top 10 picks. Same with the Yotes, ~230 games each from their first rounders in 2016. ~300 from 1st rounders in Provorov and Konecny.

Really illustrates how devastating it is to lose picks near the top of the draft.

Bottom line ... any team that gets top ten results out of bottom two number of picks is doing something right.

[Flash Walken]

I mean, your results are very interesting but I wouldn't call them call them conclusive by any stretch, nor would I be quick to suggest a team dead last in the entire league at making draft selections is doing something right.

I knew it would be bad but I didn't anticipate the results would be that bad.

Considering there has been no playoff success and just about all of those early picks traded away have turned into nothing, the weight of this deficit spending won't be truly felt for another 5 to 10 years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I mean, your results are very interesting but I wouldn't call them call them conclusive by any stretch, nor would I be quick to suggest a team dead last in the entire league at making draft selections is doing something right.

I knew it would be bad but I didn't anticipate the results would be that bad.

Considering there has been no playoff success and just about all of those early picks traded away have turned into nothing, the weight of this deficit spending won't be truly felt for another 5 to 10 years.

Well considering the fact that my statements have all centered around the fact that they've done a good job getting bang for buck, and even said it was valid criticism that they don't have enough picks I don't feel I'm avoiding those criticisms.

The discussion was how the team is drafting.

I think the numbers suggest they are doing quite well, especially given the lack of number of picks.

[Britflamesfan]

Sadly the only low first round pick we have had recently and we blew it, don’t get me wrong I like Bennett but there were much better players picked afterwards. A great shame as it has set the Organization back considerably.

[TheScorpion]

Meh Nylander and Ehlers would be nice but I don't think they'd fix the Flames. And Dal Colle or Fleury or Virtanen are all downgrades, although Virtanen is decent.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Thank you Jiri and Bingo, that was a great episode. So many things to talk about as a Flames fan for this offseason, there are so many directions that we can take.

We all talk about moving on from Monahan and/or Gaudreau, but you guys bringing up Giordano as possibly the change that needs to be made makes sense. We won our playoff round in the previous decade without him. He wasn't even the best defenseman during these playoffs either. Brodie, Andersson, and Hanifin were the ones that stood out.

For his sake he should enjoy being on a team that may have a better shot at a cup while the Flames are trying to figure themselves out. I am not expecting a great return, just want the cap space (at least half) to allocate it in other needs.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Britflamesfan

Sadly the only low first round pick we have had recently and we blew it, don’t get me wrong I like Bennett but there were much better players picked afterwards. A great shame as it has set the Organization back considerably.

As bad as people think that pick was, as it has been mentioned, the players picked immediately after aren't exactly lighting the world on fire. The two players worth anything would probably be considered complimentary players. Flames were just unlucky to be drafting high in a disappointing draft class.

These are the 4th rounders recently:
Bowen Byram - jury still out
Brady Tkachuk - stud
Cale Makar - stud
Jesse Puljujarvi - bust
Mitch Marner - stud
Sam Bennett
Seth Jones - stud

[Robbob]

The best part about Detroit being high on the not so good list, is the architect is now in Edmonton.

[Flash Walken]

The reason Detroit doesn't look good is because of the sample range in the methodology due to where each organization finds themselves in their competitive cycles.

If you sampled, say, the draft records of Detroit in the last 3 years compared to the same range of Calgary, the difference between the two orgs right now will be negligible, but 3 years out will be devastating because the two organizations will have been on an inverse trajectory: the flames all in trying for one last gasp with their core group while the wings will have been building.

So while bingo seems content to say the team is drafting well because they are getting good players with limited picks, the obvious observation is, if Calgary is getting near top of the league return on their picks, just how good could this roster be if the scouting staff had received a league average amount of picks instead of being the worst team in the league at actually having them to use?

For example, the 2015 season where the sampling starts had Detroit with a 100 point season, making bad trades, trying to win it with an old core group.

That's not throwing shade on the bombass draft the flames ended up with from that year getting Andersson and kylington in round 2, but the wings didn't make a selection that year in the second round.

The flames could have the best scouting group in the NHL but if the wings get to pick 11 times per year and the flames pick 5 times per year, the flames are going to have to be more than twice as good at drafting as the wings just to break even with them.

That's a tall order. Especially when 1/3rd of the flames drafted games over the last 5 years are from one player picked 6th overall and the wings have drafted 6th overall in back to back years and are slated to pick 4th overall this year.

Considering the flames have won just 2 more playoff games than the wings in that time frame, has it even really translated into anything?

Of course the rangers, Tampa, Chicago and Detroit are going to look bad on games played per pick, the rangers made 1 pick in the first two rounds between 2015-16 because they were trying to go for it. In the last two years though they've made 18 picks to Calgary's 10. The rangers have picked 10 times in the first 3 rounds in the last two years compared to Calgary's 2.

Is there any question at all for how this is going to turn out in as little as 2 years, even if Pelletier turns into a 35 goal scorer?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Thank you Jiri and Bingo, that was a great episode. So many things to talk about as a Flames fan for this offseason, there are so many directions that we can take.

We all talk about moving on from Monahan and/or Gaudreau, but you guys bringing up Giordano as possibly the change that needs to be made makes sense. We won our playoff round in the previous decade without him. He wasn't even the best defenseman during these playoffs either. Brodie, Andersson, and Hanifin were the ones that stood out.

For his sake he should enjoy being on a team that may have a better shot at a cup while the Flames are trying to figure themselves out. I am not expecting a great return, just want the cap space (at least half) to allocate it in other needs.

I think this makes sense. Time to think hard about an Iginla type trade for Gio, and probably keep the expectations around return in check.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The reason Detroit doesn't look good is because of the sample range in the methodology due to where each organization finds themselves in their competitive cycles.

If you sampled, say, the draft records of Detroit in the last 3 years compared to the same range of Calgary, the difference between the two orgs right now will be negligible, but 3 years out will be devastating because the two organizations will have been on an inverse trajectory: the flames all in trying for one last gasp with their core group while the wings will have been building.

So while bingo seems content to say the team is drafting well because they are getting good players with limited picks, the obvious observation is, if Calgary is getting near top of the league return on their picks, just how good could this roster be if the scouting staff had received a league average amount of picks instead of being the worst team in the league at actually having them to use?

For example, the 2015 season where the sampling starts had Detroit with a 100 point season, making bad trades, trying to win it with an old core group.

That's not throwing shade on the bombass draft the flames ended up with from that year getting Andersson and kylington in round 2, but the wings didn't make a selection that year in the second round.

The flames could have the best scouting group in the NHL but if the wings get to pick 11 times per year and the flames pick 5 times per year, the flames are going to have to be more than twice as good at drafting as the wings just to break even with them.

That's a tall order. Especially when 1/3rd of the flames drafted games over the last 5 years are from one player picked 6th overall and the wings have drafted 6th overall in back to back years and are slated to pick 4th overall this year.

Considering the flames have won just 2 more playoff games than the wings in that time frame, has it even really translated into anything?

Of course the rangers, Tampa, Chicago and Detroit are going to look bad on games played per pick, the rangers made 1 pick in the first two rounds between 2015-16 because they were trying to go for it. In the last two years though they've made 18 picks to Calgary's 10. The rangers have picked 10 times in the first 3 rounds in the last two years compared to Calgary's 2.

Is there any question at all for how this is going to turn out in as little as 2 years, even if Pelletier turns into a 35 goal scorer?

I don't know who you are arguing with this about? Is there not pretty much wide agreement that the team needs to protect and acquire more picks? Bingo's analysis is that they are doing well with the picks they have, it doesn't theorize that they should therefore be OK with having few picks.

[Flash Walken]

Detroit is an obvious landing spot for Giordano as they have 2 35+ year old defenders hitting UFA this year with good young d prospects needing mentorship and is decently close to his hometown.

They probably have the interest in him at full salary that a competitive won't as they are currently below the cap floor for next year, so salary coming back, Calgary's biggest issue, is not a concern in a deal with them.

Then use the picks coming from Detroit to flip in a deal as sweeteners with another team.

[AC]

Giordano has a NTC, soon to be 19 team modified NTC.

Surely Detroit would be on that list.