[PGT] Flames defeat Canucks 4-1 - Page 9 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

1qqaaz · 05-14-2021, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Savvy27

Is that a fact? Every single year people say stuff like this and every year there are players picked after the supposed ledge that are better than the ones within it. The difference between 6th and 11th is the worse odds that you have noted for the lottery and then it's a difference between two unknowns. The consternation about this is overblown. We've all seen how drafts play out and acting like this is a certain catastrophe because of a few spots is absurd.

2019
6. Moritz Seider (also taken before 12th: Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, Vasily Podkolzin)
12. Matthew Boldy (also available: Spencer Knight, Cole Caulfield, Alex Newhook)

2018
6. Filip Zadina (Quinn Hughes, Vitali Kravtsov, Evan Bouchard)
12. Noah Dobson (Joel Farabee, Rasmus Sandin, K'Andre Miller)

2017
6. Cody Glass (Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Tippett, Gabriel Vilardi)
12. Martin Necas (Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris, Robert Thomas)

2016
6. Matthew Tkachuk (Clayton Keller, Mikahil Sergachev, Tyson Jost)
12. Michael McLeod (Charlie McAvoy, Jakob Chychrun, Jake Bean)

2015
6. Pavel Zacha (Ivan Provorov, Mikko Rantanen, Zach Werenski)
12. Denis Gurianov (Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor, Thomas Chabot)

Sure, moving down a few spots is less exciting when it comes to the draft, but it's only a little bit less exciting.

I don't get how people think it would work taking into account the coaching staff and players on the team. How are you supposed to purposely lose without consequences to the the culture and atmosphere of the team?

This is a good post, and I thank you for listing them all out.

Lets list a few more:

2014: Virtanen (6) Perlini (12)
2013: Monahan (6) Domi (12)
2012: Lindholm (6) Grigorenko (12)
2011: Zibanejad (6) Murphy (12)

Personally I come to a different conclusion than you do.
I think the difference between 6th and 12th is quite large. Very few players drafted 6th are outright busts. At 12, the chances are much higher.

And I think we will agree that even 6th overall picks still aren't great (even though it tends to be the highest the Flames ever pick). Since 2007, only four players drafted 6th overall have ever had a 50 point season.
So losses matter more when you're at the very bottom of the standings. The change in value goes up exponentially. If you're actually rebuilding, you need to be picking higher than 6th.

Savvy27 · 05-14-2021, 05:12 PM

Truthfully, I understand other fans wanting them to do a full rebuild and if that is the direction that the organization chose like the Rangers and the Senators, then I would be on board and probably also be bummed out if they won a bunch of games at the end of the season ruining their chances at a very high pick (you're right that even 6th isn't high enough if drafting an all-star is the goal of the season). That being said, it's not what the team was doing and I don't think it's worth the energy being spent being angry with the team for trying to win games and refine their game under their still new coach.

I was very critical of Geoff Ward and excited when Sutter was hired because the second rate coaching this team has had since Sutter was very frustrating to me. I remember when he took over the team in 2002-03 and started to change things and watched as they turned into a contender (and unfortunately lost a season in the midst of that to a lockout). So, since they took the step that I was hoping for, I'm going to wait and see how it turns out.

I support making trades and am hoping for an Eichel deal, myself. I also think they should have put a couple more young guys in last night. But I want to see them control games, generate more offense, and get used to winning, even if it makes finding a good player in the first round a bit tougher.

Also, I found this paper on draft pick value:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...TkFGHYWjHUdJZu

Looks like you were right that there is a fairly big value gap. This guy has the suggested cost to move from 12th to 6th as 12th+44th. Not insignificant.

dino7c · 05-14-2021, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeMc

Mathematically...sure i guess?

Even if the 6 things that needed to line up to scrape into the playoffs did magically line up. Does anyone have any illusions they would have made some noise when they got there? That we'd take 4 from the Leafs? The way this season has gone and the way this team has played?

We would get dummied by the Leafs. And i hate the Leafs.

The team was out of the playoffs months ago.

Right now they needed one more win

plus these next three against Vancouver (doesn't look very far fetched)

just saying that they haven't been out of it for a month plus like some people say. If they won ONE of those games that "didn't matter" they would be alive right now and Montreal would be peeing their pants.

robertsfanatic · 05-14-2021, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

2013: Monahan (6) Domi (12)

I might be misunderstanding this, but are you implying (or is it inferring?) that Domi is better than Monahan?

come on man.

Enoch Root · 05-14-2021, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

On April 9, only 5 teams had fewer points than Calgary.

The difference between 6th OA and 11/12th overall (this is where the Flames will pick) is a lot.
It's easily worth more than a late first. In fact, this amount might even be worth more than Monahan. Especially when you consider the fact that there is a tier between the top 8 and the picks afterwards.
Also, at 6th OA you have a 15.2% chance of winning the lottery. Rather than 6.3%.

And the prospects might be "middling", but they're also the best non-CHL prospects the Flames have.
I'm not sure how much you've followed the Heat this year, but Phillips and Mackey were great and deserve to play. And even moreso, they deserve to be developed.

lol

Come on man.

How did nobody challenge this?