Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[JTech780]

The more time that goes on the more I like this trade. At first I had the same reaction that just about any Flames fan had, stunned silence, followed by "Why?" 30 times. Don't get me wrong I was excited to be moving James Neal, as in my opinion he just had the worst season in Flames sweater that I have ever witnessed from any player in Flames history, like the guy didn't do a single positive thing for an entire season. My shock was that we were getting Milan Lucic, the owner of the worst contract in the NHL, why would we want that? Add in the fact that he comes with all that Oilers stink and his ability to play hockey is all but gone. Then I started to take a closer look, beaches there had to be a good reason to make this trade. I really needed there to be a good reason, I share an office with an Oilers fan and I really don't want to have to deal with "How's Lucic working out for you guys, haha" or "Neal scored again last night, haha" for the next 4 years.

So when I looked closer I found that over the course of the last two seasons that Neal and Lucic have both put up 40 points at 5v5, and over that same time frame that Neal only has three more points on the PP than Lucic. At the same time Lucic has been a better possession player with worse zone starts than Neal.

After that I started to look at the fit of both players on this roster. Anyway you look at it, Neal wasn't a fit in Calgary, he wasn't last year and it more than likely wasn't going to change next season. If Neal isn't playing in your top 6 then he really isn't effective, one could argue that he isn't effective in the top 6 either but we will let the Oilers figure that out on their own. Lucic provides a missing element and fills a role in the bottom 6 something Neal doesn't.

I get that people are worried that Neal might return to form in Edmonton, and he might but I really don't think that should be a worry. Even if Neal does go back to being a 20 goal 40 point player that he was before coming to Calgary, he wasn't going to be that here, and those aren't exactly huge numbers. I think the fact that Neal will play in their top 6 says way more about Edmonton's complete lack of scoring depth than it does about Neal's ability.

At the end of the day I think we actually got the better player and saved a bit of cap space, so I see it as a win for us.

[Darkon]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Didn't Garnet Hathaway go from four goals to eleven last year playing with Mangiapane and Ryan? Hathaway, who unlike Lucic, had no business hitting double digit goals while Lucic has only fallen short of double digits once in a full season.



Fun fact, Sam Bennett's 5v5 First Assist rate of 0.75 would have ranked second on the Edmonton Oilers last year (800+ minutes). Now Draisaitl at 0.74 isn't meaningfully behind but point is, Bennett is a playmaker. Poor second assist totals don't change that fact. Even Claude Giroux has had seasons where the second assists were not there



The Mangiapane/Ryan combination catapulted Hathaway to a huge payday this offseason. A year ago I didn't think Hathaway even deserved a qualifying offer as an RFA.

Any way you look at it, his linemates have gotten quicker, more skilled, younger.

And the profound improvement in defensemen - Giordano, Brodie, Hanifin, Kylington, Andersson, Valimaki... this should not be overlooked especially for a guy like Lucic who likes to set up netfront and bang in garbage goals and tips.

Hockey's a team sport and Lucic is a decent bottom six forward who is moving to a much better team that has a vacancy for a big body like him in their bottom six.

I have been fairly meh about this whole thing. In fact I’ve gone from angry to now meh. But your point about better defence men and Lucic being a net front presence makes sense and I can hope that maybe Peters is able to use Lucic in a more profitable way there than Edmonton was just simply because Edmonton had a difficult time getting pucks to the net from their defence??? I can hope right???

[Delthefunky]

As much as I'd love to win a trade over the Oilers, I think this trade benefits both teams.

Each team needed to get rid of the their respective players, and they fill a need on their new teams.

I'm excited for what Lucic could bring, I think he'll be a strong team guy who can really set a physical tone, and lead by example. Like others have said, wer'e not losing many points by getting rid of Neal. And if/when we're in the playoffs the next few years Lucic is definitely a guy you want on your team.

Neal might do really well in Edmonton, but I think they have a lot more to overcome to be even close to the playoffs the next while. He definitely fits their defensive game to a T.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by 868904

I remember last Summer, everyone was talking about how effective Tom wilson was for the Caps in the Cup championship. How rare that type of player was.

Then everyone was shocked at the contract the Caps gave him.

With the retention, Lucic’s contract is pretty much on par with Wilson’s.

I know Wilson had a great season last year statistically but prior to that, and prior to signing his big contract, his career high was 35 points.

I know Wilson is younger and will outplay and outproduce Lucic for the remainder of their contracts, but these really are a rare type of player. In fact the only other guy in the league like this is probably Nick Ritchie.

I think if Lucic can get to 35 points, throw his 200 plus hits, beat up some guys, and be an impact player in the playoffs, his cap hit really isn’t that bad. I don’t think these goals are really that out of reach.

If Wilson was a UFA last year, I think the Flames would have offered him what the Caps gave him. Lucic isn’t as good as Wilson now, so the Flames are paying a premium but like I said, these kind of players are like unicorns, they are extremely rare and in short supply and that’s why they cost this much.

Just another perspective.

Cost this much?

The Flames cost to obtain this player was dumping an extremely unwanted contract.

Plus they got some salary retention.

This type of player was, in this case, pretty easy to obtain.


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[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Cost this much?

The Flames cost to obtain this player was dumping an extremely unwanted contract.

Plus they got some salary retention.

This type of player was, in this case, pretty easy to obtain.


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Maybe he was refering to 'cost' as in the aav....

[Tron_fdc]

James Neal must have been a bigger locker room problem than we all thought if we are trading with Edmonton.

For Lucic.

Guy should fit right in up North.

[GioforPM]

It must be so frustrating for certain posters to point out that others were wrong only for them to just say "Yep, I was. My bad"

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So the conditional 3rd basically comes to the Flames if Neal returns to the player we thought we had signed a year ago. Why isn’t that much more than a 3rd round pick?

It's worth what someone else was willing to pay for it.

If you think Treliving could have gotten more, you're expectations are a little unrealistic. The market for Neal, and his contract, were likely next to zero. If another team was willing to offer more, that's more than likely the trade the Flames would have made.

Treliving moved an expendable piece. Neal was not going to be a top 6 on this team & is a solid bet not to get any better over the duration of his contract. Lucic addresses a team need. Best to look at this how the player so going to improve the team, not just the individual

[Fischy13]

Edmonton is paying more for Neal than they did for Lucic. Flames fans couldn’t stand Neal at 5.75mil, imagine him at 6.5 mil now.

Flames get Lucic for 5.25, still over paid, but not as bad a deal as Edmonton was getting.

That’s all a win.

If Neal hits 21 goals, 6.5mil is par ish, but the Flames are adding a 3rd. I’ll take it.

[jmac98]

It’s such a strange concept in wanting the player dealt to not only succeed but also by a significant margin over the player you’re getting back as a means to realizing relative balance in the deal.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by jmac98

It’s such a strange concept in wanting the player dealt to not only succeed but also by a significant margin over the player you’re getting back as a means to realizing relative balance in the deal.

I for one hope Lucic outscores Neal and Oilers get to keep their 3rd.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

I for one hope Lucic outscores Neal and Oilers get to keep their 3rd.

I hope Neal scores 26 with McDavid and Hopkins/ Draisaitl while Lucic scores 16 with Jankowski and Dube and we get the Oilers third while Lucic still has a bounce back year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I hope Neal scores 26 with McDavid and Hopkins/ Draisaitl while Lucic scores 16 with Jankowski and Dube and we get the Oilers third while Lucic still has a bounce back year.

That's pretty good plus I hope Neal hits the goal mark by scoring 20 in the last 20 games after the Oilers are out of the POs.

Or I hope he scores 2 goals all year.

[jmac98]

I’m speaking with respect to how the deal is structured. Of course we’d all love Lucic to have a great year and Neal to continue to spiral.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by jmac98

It’s such a strange concept in wanting the player dealt to not only succeed but also by a significant margin over the player you’re getting back as a means to realizing relative balance in the deal.

This is where you're wrong. It's called a contingency, not wanting it but in case if it happens you're covered.

Do you think Treiliving would care about a 3rd round pick if Lucic somehow scores 30 goals/50 points and Neal is a dud again? Absolutely not.

Chances are both players will be dud again.

[jmac98]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

This is where you're wrong. It's called a contingency, not wanting it but in case if it happens you're covered.

Do you think Treiliving would care about a 3rd round pick if Lucic somehow scores 30 goals/50 points and Neal is a dud again? Absolutely not.

Chances are both players will be dud again.

Ya, I did a poor job in wording my point, which was more towards how Calgary wins the trade on paper within the written stipulations. Sorry about that.

[Poe969]

At first I was really unhappy then it was a "meh for meh" trade but hearing all the guys who reached out to loch and how excited they are has got me a little excited for this..

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by jmac98

It’s such a strange concept in wanting the player dealt to not only succeed but also by a significant margin over the player you’re getting back as a means to realizing relative balance in the deal.

Lol I would rather take neal not scoring at all and lucic potting 15. The third is pretty immaterial in that scenario.

[Monahammer]

It should have been more apparent that someone who calls themselves "the real deal" has a certain attitude about them. I think he'll fit right in with the edmonton culture

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Lol I would rather take neal not scoring at all and lucic potting 15. The third is pretty immaterial in that scenario.

The fact that there are the two scenarios makes this condition seem a lot smarter on reflection. We know Neal only contributes by scoring, whereas Lucic possibly contributes in several ways. So either Neal is a dud even though he will get tried as a top six, in which case the Flames win just on salary and equivalent contribution (or maybe decent contribution from Lucic) or he scores 20 (which I don't think moves the needle in Edmonton) and the Flames get a third.