06-28-2017, 08:17 AM
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#7061
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce
Draisatl was an absolute beast in the playoffs away from McDavid.
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A lot of that was due to shooting percentage though - when they were apart they were both getting dominated from a Corsi% and both tend to be much more productive together.
Playoffs:
Together:
-51.2% Corsi For
-66.7% Goals For
-11.11% On Ice Shooting Percentage
Draisaitl Without McDavid:
-42.2% Corsi For
-71.4% Goals For
-16.13%(!) On Ice Shooting Percentage
McDavid Without Draisaitl:
-41.6% Corsi For
-37.5% Goals For
-7.5% On Ice Shooting Percentage
Similar in the regular season that both guys are much better together, McDavid is still elite without Draisaitl but Draisaitl wasn't very good without McDavid.
Regular Season:
Together:
-53.8% Corsi For
-59.4% Goals For
-10.88% On Ice Shooting Percentage
Draisaitl Without McDavid:
-47.9% Corsi For
-44.2% Goals For
-8.15% On Ice Shooting Percentage
McDavid Without Draisaitl:
-52.0% Corsi For
-65.5% Goals For (Due to a crazy .940 save percentage during this time)
-10.59% On Ice Shooting Percentage
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to SuperMatt18 For This Useful Post:
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06-28-2017, 08:26 AM
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#7062
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
A lot of that was due to shooting percentage though - when they were apart they were both getting dominated from a Corsi% and both tend to be much more productive together.
...stats...
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Yup. People were calling the Flames unsustainable in 2015 because they had a ~102 PDO when they made the playoffs. Draisaitl had a 115 (!) PDO away from McDavid in the playoffs - not only did he have an on-ice shooting percentage of 16%, Talbot was also saving 99% of shots.
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06-28-2017, 08:29 AM
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#7063
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
Yup. People were calling the Flames unsustainable in 2015 because they had a ~102 PDO when they made the playoffs. Draisaitl had a 115 (!) PDO away from McDavid in the playoffs - not only did he have an on-ice shooting percentage of 16%, Talbot was also saving 99% of shots.
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I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.
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06-28-2017, 08:32 AM
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#7064
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CGY
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It will be interesting to see what the Oil do this summer. Sekera is hurt for the first couple months of the year, and I do think Strome is a downgrade on Eberle.
Does Puljujarvi make the team? Do they make other improvements?
I am not convinced that internal improvement is going to continue to push this team forward when rivals like the Flames have made a couple big additions and are looking to do more before next season starts.
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06-28-2017, 08:34 AM
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#7065
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnitdown
I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.
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That's the point. His playoff performance without McDavid is no where representative of his future playoff play without McDavid due to small sample size
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
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06-28-2017, 08:43 AM
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#7066
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
That's the point. His playoff performance without McDavid is no where representative of his future playoff play without McDavid due to small sample size
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True, the PDO confirms his goal scoring streak was a fluke but I'm guessing even Oilers fans aren't delusional enough to think his 2 PPG pace against the Ducks represents his future potential playing away from McDavid.
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06-28-2017, 08:45 AM
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#7067
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnitdown
I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.
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In terms of the conclusions you draw, there's not much difference. Success in hockey (goals) is massively impacted by percentages even over large sample sizes. Over a 13 game sample size, it's almost entirely due to the percentage.
Although, now that I think about it some more, a PDO of 102 over an 82 game sample is probably a comparable outlier to a PDO of 115 over a 13 game sample.
To be clear, I think both results (Flames making the playoffs in 2015, Draisaitl scoring a lot of points this year) were unsustainable.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Kovaz For This Useful Post:
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06-28-2017, 10:48 AM
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#7068
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Franchise Player
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I think Draisaitl was carrying a bit of luck throughout the season and the playoffs myself.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if his numbers drop coming into 2017/18.
The problem for a GM though is that Draisaitl produced the numbers he did. If you approach him in negotiations quoting PDO he'd tell you to go make love to your hat.
Based on comparables you kind of have to give him $7-8 million long term. The other option would be to offer him a bridge. If he doesn't like that, then the offer sheet risk becomes very real.
Do you let a guy who could be a 60-70 point guy for you go for draft picks over a million extra dollars?
That's a pretty tough choice to make.
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The Following 11 Users Say Thank You to Oil Stain For This Useful Post:
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Cheese,
ColoradoFlamesFan,
Deegee,
Dion,
Erick Estrada,
jayswin,
Locke,
looooob,
MoneyGuy,
undercoverbrother,
Vinny01
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06-28-2017, 11:04 AM
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#7069
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain
I think Draisaitl was carrying a bit of luck throughout the season and the playoffs myself.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if his numbers drop coming into 2017/18.
The problem for a GM though is that Draisaitl produced the numbers he did. If you approach him in negotiations quoting PDO he'd tell you to go make love to your hat.
Based on comparables you kind of have to give him $7-8 million long term. The other option would be to offer him a bridge. If he doesn't like that, then the offer sheet risk becomes very real.
Do you let a guy who could be a 60-70 point guy for you go for draft picks over a million extra dollars?
That's a pretty tough choice to make.
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You do not approach this man and tell him to 'make love to his hat...'
He may well do it.
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
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The Following 15 Users Say Thank You to Locke For This Useful Post:
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Bonecrushing Hits,
cam_wmh,
CaptainCrunch,
ColoradoFlamesFan,
CrunchBite,
Deegee,
handgroen,
jayswin,
midniteowl,
N-E-B,
Party Elephant,
redflamesfan08,
socalwingfan,
SOMBRI2,
Steve Bozek
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06-28-2017, 11:11 AM
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#7070
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Hyperbole Chamber
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Do the Bruins have the draft picks required for a Draisaitl offer sheet?
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06-28-2017, 11:14 AM
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#7071
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Lifetime Suspension
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there isnt much to be done about the mcdavid deal.. but chia has proven to be a soft negotiatior in the past.. and if he lets the draisaitl contract get out of hand hes going to be in trouble..
dont be afraid of bad feelings.. it happens during discussions.. im sure there was lots with gaudreau but now hes out recruiting Spencer Foo for his team.. if chia has to use points iwth and without crosby.. do it.. but again Peter is a terrible negotiator and dry will get p a i d
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06-28-2017, 12:19 PM
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#7072
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Calgary
Exp:
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Coiler fans think they can dump Lucic and only eat $1 million of his salary! What are they putting in the water up there!
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06-28-2017, 12:20 PM
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#7073
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realistic
Coiler fans think they can dump Lucic and only eat $1 million of his salary! What are they putting in the water up there!
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One year into a 7 year deal.
These are good times, my friends.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Enoch Root For This Useful Post:
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06-28-2017, 12:33 PM
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#7074
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Franchise Player
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Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.
Problem is it will probably work.
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06-28-2017, 12:40 PM
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#7075
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Here
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Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx
Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.
Problem is it will probably work.
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Isn't there a rule that only get cap relief for LTIR players after the season starts? That would mean that they need to be cap compliant on day one of the season with Lucic on the roster, and they can sign someone else after that (with the cap space)
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06-28-2017, 12:55 PM
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#7076
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Franchise Player
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If someone drops a $9.5 AAV offer sheet onto Draisaitl, I imagine there is a chance the oilers walk away from it even despite Chiarelli saying they'd match anything.
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06-28-2017, 01:06 PM
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#7077
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx
Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.
Problem is it will probably work.
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Does Giordano have a history of hangnails?
Someone better start digging for his out.
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06-28-2017, 01:08 PM
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#7078
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ah123
Isn't there a rule that only get cap relief for LTIR players after the season starts? That would mean that they need to be cap compliant on day one of the season with Lucic on the roster, and they can sign someone else after that (with the cap space)
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When teams/players pull injury shenanigans they're essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul & only hurting the players. The players get 50% of revenue no more no less. The more injuries and "injuries" artificially increase the cap to only increase player escrow. The back diving deals like Hossa are one thing, a contract like Dustin Browns or Lucic is another.
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06-28-2017, 02:43 PM
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#7079
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Stain
Does Giordano have a history of hangnails?
Someone better start digging for his out.
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We'll worry about that when his play actually dips.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Ashasx For This Useful Post:
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06-28-2017, 02:59 PM
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#7080
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx
Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.
Problem is it will probably work.
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Well until the NHL suspicious of Lucic going on asks to see all of the notes and examinations by the Oilers team physician and its peer renewed by NHL doctors and consultants and they realize that its cap circumvention and force Lucic back on the roster. Oh and file an ethical complaint against the Oilers team doctors for what is equivalent to fraud costing him his license.
All of these players that go on LTIR, that essentially require what is equivalent to a second opinion outside of the team doctor, and these area also reviewed by the NHL.
No doctor is going to basically perform a fraudulent act to put Lucic on that list.
The NHL won't allow it, the other 30 teams in the league will be calling the NHL the minute that Lucic goes on that list if his contract isn't expired.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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