[CP Story] Home Woes

[nfotiu]

One other stat that is pretty glaring is goal differential. They are -10 at home and +11 on the road. That really doesn't suggest a team that has got unlucky in a couple close games at home. In fact it suggests their home record should probably be a little worse than it is.

[Flash Walken]

Here's my theory

FLames are too loose or too tight depending on how you look at it at the start of home games. They or the goalie are giving up the early lead and are having to play from behind in front of the home crowd. This leads to them taking offensive chances to even the score that may or may not work.

They then spend the most of the rest of the game chasing, which should have them generating more chances/shots than their opposition who is trying to shut them down.

So the advanced statistics suggest the flames should be luckier because they are generating more than they do on the road, but in fact they are playing from behind at home more frequently than on the road which is contributing to the goal differential and home/road shot imbalance.

[jlh2640]

Like I feel like if we can figure out our PP, sloppy penalties and home record we could be a force. But until then I am not buying it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Here's my theory

FLames are too loose or too tight depending on how you look at it at the start of home games. They or the goalie are giving up the early lead and are having to play from behind in front of the home crowd. This leads to them taking offensive chances to even the score that may or may not work.

They then spend the most of the rest of the game chasing, which should have them generating more chances/shots than their opposition who is trying to shut them down.

This is not really what has been happening since the start of the New Year. More often than not, the Flames have been scoring the first goal at the Saddledome.

So the advanced statistics suggest the flames should be luckier because they are generating more than they do on the road, but in fact they are playing from behind at home more frequently than on the road which is contributing to the goal differential and home/road shot imbalance.

In fact, they are not.

[DeluxeMoustache]

It has to be coaching. If the team is not mentally prepared at home, there is something wrong.

I still see there is a stronger inverse correlation between coaches’ ability to influence the game and team results, than a positive correlation between advanced stats and team performance.

Or maybe it’s the altitude. They generally play better in an oxygen rich environment closer to sea level.

[Classic_Sniper]

Posted this in the game day thread. But without a doubt the biggest factor in our home and away record is goaltending. Hate to put it on just the goalies, but the numbers are staggering. Home games have seen more weak goals and less stolen games from our goaltenders based on what I’ve seen.

Team Away sv% = .930

Team Home sv% = .897

[DeluxeMoustache]

I don’t like the use of sv% as indicator of quality goals.

Lots of stopppable shots on Luongo and dangerous redirections on the Flames

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I don’t like the use of sv% as indicator of quality goals.

Lots of stopppable shots on Luongo and dangerous redirections on the Flames

Save% is the best stat that’s available though. There’s some advanced aave% stats that are probably more telling. Just look at the bottom 10 teams in the league and tell me their team save percentages. I bet you they’re pretty subpar. With a team sv% like that at home, I’m actually surprised we’re even close to .500.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I just don’t think that Rittich’s shots against and GA tonight fit in to that narrative. *And I particularly take exception to single game sv%

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Posted this in the game day thread. But without a doubt the biggest factor in our home and away record is goaltending. Hate to put it on just the goalies, but the numbers are staggering. Home games have seen more weak goals and less stolen games from our goaltenders based on what I’ve seen.

Team Away sv% = .930

Team Home sv% = .897

Save percentage can be a function of how well (or poorly) the team plays defensively.

Blaming the difference on goaltending is overly simplistic. Same goalies, but they just don't play well in red?

[Enoch Root]

For me, last night was another example of how the team tries to play more of a possession game at home - looking to make more passes, and especially looking to make more passes in their own zone.

On the road, they chip it out more. They hit more. And they go to the net more, where they get tip-ins and rebounds.

They play a simpler game on the road.

[jayswin]

It would help if our fans would find in their hearts to give the team absolutely any semblance of an atmosphere. It's a complete morgue these days, as bad as the late 90's.

[rhino]

My theory is GG sucks at matching lines.

[Bingo]

Expected save percentage vs actual save percentage is another way to look at it as well ... it tries to bring the team into it by looking at the quality of shots faced.

If you do a home vs road scrape of that date you get this on home ice.

Smith -.79 (90.46 vs 91.26)
Rittich -19.72 (72 vs 91.72)

On the road the numbers ...

Smith 3.87 (94.36 vs 90.49)
Rittich 2.00 (92.88 vs 90.88)

This says a few things ...

1. Sample size for Rittich on home ice is unfair
2. The Flames are giving up more on the road (expected save percentage for Smith is higher on home ice)
3. The goalies are saving less on home ice despite the Flames giving up less

Or ... Glen Gulutzan sucks

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected save percentage vs actual save percentage is another way to look at it as well ... it tries to bring the team into it by looking at the quality of shots faced.

If you do a home vs road scrape of that date you get this on home ice.

Smith -.79 (90.46 vs 91.26)
Rittich -19.72 (72 vs 91.72)

On the road the numbers ...

Smith 3.87 (94.36 vs 90.49)
Rittich 2.00 (92.88 vs 90.88)

This says a few things ...

1. Sample size for Rittich on home ice is unfair
2. The Flames are giving up more on the road (expected save percentage for Smith is higher on home ice)
3. The goalies are saving less on home ice despite the Flames giving up less

Or ... Glen Gulutzan sucks

Come on Bingo.

It is possible for it to be several things at the same time. There is no question that they play differently at home vs on the road - all of their metrics differ significantly. And if the style of play differs, the results are probably going to differ as well.

Can't we just discuss why?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For me, last night was another example of how the team tries to play more of a possession game at home - looking to make more passes, and especially looking to make more passes in their own zone.

On the road, they chip it out more. They hit more. And they go to the net more, where they get tip-ins and rebounds.

They play a simpler game on the road.

This is the problem. Teams tend to play a different style at home, they tend to be fancier because maybe they get caught up with the crowd.

I've always noticed that teams tend to try to be prettier on home ice and a lot simpler on the road.

The really good teams play consistently no matter what color the uniform.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Come on Bingo.

It is possible for it to be several things at the same time. There is no question that they play differently at home vs on the road - all of their metrics differ significantly. And if the style of play differs, the results are probably going to differ as well.

Can't we just discuss why?

Read this entire discussion.

We have discussed every statistic imaginable beating down every "Flames don't play as well on home ice" suggestion only to get one liner above me saying "my theory is GG can't match lines"

It's tiresome.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The really good teams play consistently no matter what color the uniform.

And I'd add no matter the score.

When I coach kids I always say two things ..

1. Ignore the score board
2. It doesn't matter what order the goals are scored in.

Get a kids team to agree they will score three goals every game so why does it matter if the opposition gets the first one?

The Flames don't respond the same on home ice when things don't go their way.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by rhino

My theory is GG sucks at matching lines.

Its way harder to match lines on the road though....so that kind of flies in the face of your theory.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And I'd add no matter the score.

When I coach kids I always say two things ..

1. Ignore the score board
2. It doesn't matter what order the goals are scored in.

Get a kids team to agree they will score three goals every game so why does it matter if the opposition gets the first one?

The Flames don't respond the same on home ice when things don't go their way.

Maybe you should be the coach