Playoff Probabilities

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Avalanche scare me a bit because they’ve kept up with out McKinnon and not only will be back soon, but i think their schedule is the easiest of all the Central teams.

It seems very unlikely that if we fall out of a division spot, that a wild card spot will be there for us. so I don't really think Colorado will matter.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html has us as just a 7% chance at wildcard and 42% chance of a division spot.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Insane_Flame

Too lazy to look it up but is that not usually the case?

I remember the Flames sitting comfortably in a playoff spot last season. I believe it was a 7 or so point gap from where we sat vs the 9th place team.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

It seems very unlikely that if we fall out of a division spot, that a wild card spot will be there for us. so I don't really think Colorado will matter.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html has us as just a 7% chance at wildcard and 42% chance of a division spot.

Not sure why a wild card spot would be out of the question. Minnesota is not far from us at all and if you've seen their schedule along with the Stars and Blues, you'd probably agree that they all have much tougher schedules than we do. In fact, those 3 central teams play the California teams more than we do, they'll be taking points from each other and that should help us eek into a wildcard spot if we don't land a Pacific division spot

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by troutman

This is a little sad because it is a misquote:

Indiana Jones: "There's a big snake in the plane, Jacques!"
Jacques: "Oh, that's just my pet snake, Reggie."
Indiana Jones: "I hate snakes, Jacques! I hate 'em!"

...

Indiana Jones: "Snakes ... Why did it have to be — snakes?"

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

It seems very unlikely that if we fall out of a division spot, that a wild card spot will be there for us. so I don't really think Colorado will matter.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html has us as just a 7% chance at wildcard and 42% chance of a division spot.

I used to trust that website as a good indicator as we head into the final 30 games (it is a bit useless early in the season when the QOC competition skews this incorrectly). However, this year I am really struggling making this add up. Based on Captain Crunch's new thread, I would suggest that based on back to backs and QOC, LA has one of the more difficult schedules. They are behind us by one point with one point in hand. However, they have a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs and we have a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs (San Jose is at 69.9%, also less than LA). Certainly if you were to arbitrarily account for Carter coming back into the lineup, there is an argument to be made that LA is a high percentage candidate to make it. However, this is not accounted for in the software. I would be curious to hear where others think this discrepancy is coming from.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by tkflames

I used to trust that website as a good indicator as we head into the final 30 games (it is a bit useless early in the season when the QOC competition skews this incorrectly). However, this year I am really struggling making this add up. Based on Captain Crunch's new thread, I would suggest that based on back to backs and QOC, LA has one of the more difficult schedules. They are behind us by one point with one point in hand. However, they have a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs and we have a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs (San Jose is at 69.9%, also less than LA). Certainly if you were to arbitrarily account for Carter coming back into the lineup, there is an argument to be made that LA is a high percentage candidate to make it. However, this is not accounted for in the software. I would be curious to hear where others think this discrepancy is coming from.

Tarik

sportsclubstats puts a fair amount of weight on goal differential as an indicator of future success.

CAL -3
LAK +22

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

sportsclubstats puts a fair amount of weight on goal differential as an indicator of future success.

CAL -3
LAK +22

And do they factor in possession stats?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

And do they factor in possession stats?

not sure, but they explain their process on the site

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

not sure, but they explain their process on the site

Thanks for the reference. I looked at the “what is this section” and for the weighted version, they seem to only include records (won/loss) and 4% home ice advantage. So not looking for underlying reasons as to why a record is what it is. Unless of course I’m missing something which is of course very possible.
Not disputing it’s validity. I’m just back to Flames need to play well and win games down the stretch. 98 points is going to get you in or very close.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Thanks for the reference. I looked at the “what is this section” and for the weighted version, they seem to only include records (won/loss) and 4% home ice advantage. So not looking for underlying reasons as to why a record is what it is. Unless of course I’m missing something which is of course very possible.
Not disputing it’s validity. I’m just back to Flames need to play well and win games down the stretch. 98 points is going to get you in or very close.

I think 98-points gets the Flames in on the basis of my own evaluation of the strength of schedule for the teams bunched in outside the division lead and in the wildcard race. It might take as many as 98-points to land a wildcard slot this year, but I also think it is probable that several teams will miss the playoffs or be re-seeded on the basis of tie breakers.

This raises an interesting question when evaluating the success of the season as a whole:

· If the Flames end up tied for points in the #2–3 division spots, is this a good season?
· If the Flames end up tied for #3 in the division but are slotted in the wildcard, is this a successful season?
· If the Flames end up outside of the playoffs on the basis of a tie-breaker is this an unsuccessful season?

The competition between eight or nine very good teams in the Western Conference is so tight and so fierce that I think it complicates how we will end up evaluating the regular season. The Flames realistically could miss the playoffs and simultaneously be a single point—but with more ROWs—than the #2 division team.

[dino7c]

98 would get them in for sure

Calgary, LA, SJ, and ANA are not all gonna get 98+

teams will drop, they always do....hopefully the Flames are not one of those teams

[Corral]

It has been weeks since a central team has given up a wildcard spot. Seems more and more unlikely a pacific team is going to get one of those. SJ and ANA are going to ramp it up after the trade deadline - both are veteran teams that know there time to compete is now.

keep losing at home to lesser opponents, and Flames will be left in the dust. 3 or 4 home games since jan 1 that should have been wins. really unfortunate.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Corral

It has been weeks since a central team has given up a wildcard spot. Seems more and more unlikely a pacific team is going to get one of those. SJ and ANA are going to ramp it up after the trade deadline - both are veteran teams that know there time to compete is now.

keep losing at home to lesser opponents, and Flames will be left in the dust. 3 or 4 home games since jan 1 that should have been wins. really unfortunate.

8th spot is definitely up for grabs. Minnesota has a tough schedule ahead and they play a lot of head to head match ups. Colorado might be the scarier team though. Those games against the Avs next week are going to be absolutely huge.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think 98-points gets the Flames in on the basis of my own evaluation of the strength of schedule for the teams bunched in outside the division lead and in the wildcard race. It might take as many as 98-points to land a wildcard slot this year, but I also think it is probable that several teams will miss the playoffs or be re-seeded on the basis of tie breakers.

This raises an interesting question when evaluating the success of the season as a whole:

· If the Flames end up tied for points in the #2–3 division spots, is this a good season?
· If the Flames end up tied for #3 in the division but are slotted in the wildcard, is this a successful season?
· If the Flames end up outside of the playoffs on the basis of a tie-breaker is this an unsuccessful season?

The competition between eight or nine very good teams in the Western Conference is so tight and so fierce that I think it complicates how we will end up evaluating the regular season. The Flames realistically could miss the playoffs and simultaneously be a single point—but with more ROWs—than the #2 division team.

Fair point and you could even see a scenario where it takes 100 points to get in.

But I think setting the bar for success at being one of the top 8 out of 15 teams is not an unrealistic expectation. And totally fair given where this team is. Now if they would be one of the top 8 if not for the gimmick rounds of 3 on 3 and shootout... Yeah that would stink.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think 98-points gets the Flames in on the basis of my own evaluation of the strength of schedule for the teams bunched in outside the division lead and in the wildcard race. It might take as many as 98-points to land a wildcard slot this year, but I also think it is probable that several teams will miss the playoffs or be re-seeded on the basis of tie breakers.

This raises an interesting question when evaluating the success of the season as a whole:

· If the Flames end up tied for points in the #2–3 division spots, is this a good season?
· If the Flames end up tied for #3 in the division but are slotted in the wildcard, is this a successful season?
· If the Flames end up outside of the playoffs on the basis of a tie-breaker is this an unsuccessful season?

The competition between eight or nine very good teams in the Western Conference is so tight and so fierce that I think it complicates how we will end up evaluating the regular season. The Flames realistically could miss the playoffs and simultaneously be a single point—but with more ROWs—than the #2 division team.

It would be a tough pill to swallow, because the'd probably finish with a road record only better than Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton and Vancouver. That would just reek of wasted opportunities on home ice.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Corral

It has been weeks since a central team has given up a wildcard spot. Seems more and more unlikely a pacific team is going to get one of those. SJ and ANA are going to ramp it up after the trade deadline - both are veteran teams that know there time to compete is now.

keep losing at home to lesser opponents, and Flames will be left in the dust. 3 or 4 home games since jan 1 that should have been wins. really unfortunate.

Plus, LA is soon going to get Jeff Carter back.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

8th spot is definitely up for grabs. Minnesota has a tough schedule ahead and they play a lot of head to head match ups. Colorado might be the scarier team though. Those games against the Avs next week are going to be absolutely huge.

Both wild card spots are up for grabs... standings are tight

[442scotty]

I would love it if the Flames made the playoffs but I think they will fall just short this year. Their home record is going to kill them and they are missing an exciting to watch sniper not to mention the terrible fourth line. Goaltending is playoff caliber but definitely not cup worthy. Just too many holes to fill in the dike and not enough fingers sadly .

[Brick]

43.5%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[The Boy Wonder]

Flames likely not gonna make it unless the inconsistency is changed. They have played maybe three complete games all season where all four of special teams, goaltending, attacking and defending have been clicking at the same time. Yesterday they couldn't score but they played very well in the other three areas. This is their biggest issue
And you never know which area is gonna disappear on a given night