Edmonton is No Good VI: Chia•den•freu•de

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by GGG

The PDO number is really the key stat. I like the concept of PDO where anything outside of about .99 to 1.01 is likely due to luck. So there previous record was a little unlikely but there current PDO is ridiculous.

Is PDO a good stat? The 4 teams with a higher PDO since Hitchcock took over are Tampa Bay Toronto Washington and Anaheim. Also 12 teams, including the flames, are above the 1.01 limit you mentioned. And 13 teams are below 0.99.

[sureLoss]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1074027523917307904

[powderjunkie]

To get back to a little more analysis of the theory of E=NG, here's what every team since the lockout has been able to achieve with only one #1 pick. Since 2004, there have been 15 drafts. Only the Oilers have had multiple #1OA. This list only includes teams who have gotten the #1 pick and had 3 years to use it.

Top 3 picks are over the 15 year period; results are only since their #1OA pick joined the team


Penguins (1x#1, 2x#2) = 3 cups, etc. (you can add a 1st OA for Fleury in 2003, too)

Capitals (1x#1) = 1 cup (albeit 14 years later), six times to the 2nd round, and only missed playoffs once since ‘07 (also, Backstrom was 4OA and Alzner a 5OA)

Blues (1x#1) = Conf. Finals once, and two 2nd round exits during 6 straight playoff appearances; 2 division titles (Pietrangelo 4OA was their only other top 12 pick)

Blackhawks (1x#1, 2x#3) = 3 cups, etc. (Cam Barker in 2004 is the #3 pick not named Toews)

Lightning (1x#1, 1x#2, 1x#3) = Cup Finals once, and three Conf. Finals (ie. 9 playoff round wins in 10 seasons with Stamkos…pretty sure only the Pens, Blackhawks & Kings have more in that span; Sharks and Caps are tied at 9)

Islanders (1x#1) = 3 times in playoffs, won 1 round (also had a 4OA and three 5OA’s)

Oilers (4x#1, 1x#3) = 1 playoff appearance, where they did manage to make it to the 7th game in the second round (have also had a 1x4OA in 2016).

Avalanche (1x1, 1x#2, 1x#3) = 2 times in playoffs, 1 division title (and 1 more playoff appearance the year after they drafted Duchene 3OA)

Panthers (1x#1, 1x#2, 2x#3) = 1 playoff appearance in the 4 years of Ekblad, though with 95 pts they were only 1 pt out last year (last year was also the closest the Oilers came to a second playoff appearance – their 78 pts saw them narrowly eliminated by a 17 pt margin)

Maple Leafs (1x#1) = I won’t even both with them since we all know what has happened and what is happening. Barring an Oiler-esque meltdown down the stretch this year, they’ve already eclipsed the Oilers.


At the most generous, you could say that the Penguins and Oilers have had the same amount of Top 2 picks. No other team has had more than three Top 3 picks, except for the Panthers (who notably picked 3rd in both ’10 and ’11 – they’ve only had 4 seasons with a 1OA on the roster, who also happens to be a defenseman, and they’ve been in or very close to playoffs 3 of those 4 seasons).

Nobody has had as many top 4 or top 5 picks as the Oilers in this period.

Every team has done soooooo much more with way less. Has any professional sports team generated a more pathetic return on even half of the draft fortune?

[Jore]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://twitter.com/user/status/1074027523917307904

hahaha, yes. i'll take the oilers' hot streak and eventual first round loss if it means chia gets more job security. let's hope he makes more big moves

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GGG

The PDO number is really the key stat. I like the concept of PDO where anything outside of about .99 to 1.01 is likely due to luck. So there previous record was a little unlikely but there current PDO is ridiculous.

This isnt actually true, or at least stats don't actually support that. Both good and bad PDO's have proved to be rather sustainable, even season to season.

It's also not that bad at predicting success.

[Boreal]

Really the best thing about Pujujaarvi is that the Oilers stuck by their list... aka the Hockey News top prospects.

[sureLoss]

John Shannon @JSportsnet
Surgery for Oilers' Oscar Klefbom on his injured finger...out 6 to 8 weeks.

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

John Shannon @JSportsnet
Surgery for Oilers' Oscar Klefbom on his injured finger...out 6 to 8 weeks.

No worries, they have a glut of Giordano's.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Edit: missed it, been posted ha.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://twitter.com/user/status/1074027523917307904

Music to my ears.

[Matty81]

I actually can't believe how bad Puljujarvi looks out there still... I don't hope for the kid to fail (maybe just succeed after the Oilers let him go) but the eye test on him is really bad, he doesn't look like an NHL player imo. That draft is just the epitomy of why the Oilers are so terrible as far as organizational depth. Tonnes of picks and I just ran through them on hockeydb and already they mostly look like throwaways excepting maybe Berglund who they got in the 3rd.

Benson is just the perfect Oilers pick, he was such a hyped 1st overall bantam draft pick coming into the WHL and never really did much in the dub, Oilers draft him on pedigree because he's a former 1st overall. Kid is doing OK in the A and might still play a bit as a 2nd or 3rd liner if everything comes together perfectly but looking at the guys who went within a few picks of him like Kyrou, Thompson, Steel, Howden and Debrincat that's gotta sting a bit at the moment.

Hearing them say that Chia "built depth" when you look at their prospect cupboard beyond Bouchard is hilarious.

[MisterJoji]

If Koskinen can keep his play up what are the odds he bolts this summer? Edmonton has limited cap space and he’s going to be getting some pretty sweet offers from other teams if he maintains GAA < 2.25 and Sv% > .925. Would be hilarious. If Rittich keeps his play up at least he’s an RFA.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I actually can't believe how bad Puljujarvi looks out there still... I don't hope for the kid to fail (maybe just succeed after the Oilers let him go) but the eye test on him is really bad, he doesn't look like an NHL player imo. That draft is just the epitomy of why the Oilers are so terrible as far as organizational depth. Tonnes of picks and I just ran through them on hockeydb and already they mostly look like throwaways excepting maybe Berglund who they got in the 3rd.

Benson is just the perfect Oilers pick, he was such a hyped 1st overall bantam draft pick coming into the WHL and never really did much in the dub, Oilers draft him on pedigree because he's a former 1st overall. Kid is doing OK in the A and might still play a bit as a 2nd or 3rd liner if everything comes together perfectly but looking at the guys who went within a few picks of him like Kyrou, Thompson, Steel, Howden and Debrincat that's gotta sting a bit at the moment.

Hearing them say that Chia "built depth" when you look at their prospect cupboard beyond Bouchard is hilarious.

Oiler fans think Puji has been a great defensive forward now that Hitch is there. Bouchard is the next great number 1 blueliner and Bear and Jones are stunningly awesome.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

If Koskinen can keep his play up what are the odds he bolts this summer? Edmonton has limited cap space and he’s going to be getting some pretty sweet offers from other teams if he maintains GAA < 2.25 and Sv% > .925. Would be hilarious. If Rittich keeps his play up at least he’s an RFA.

Odds are that the Oilers being the Oilers make him amongst the richest goaltenders in the league only for him to become a one year wonder. That said it's pretty early in the season to be talking long term as I recall fans here talking about handing Chad Johnson a longterm deal based on his play through half a season in 2016.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I actually can't believe how bad Puljujarvi looks out there still... I don't hope for the kid to fail (maybe just succeed after the Oilers let him go) but the eye test on him is really bad, he doesn't look like an NHL player imo. That draft is just the epitomy of why the Oilers are so terrible as far as organizational depth. Tonnes of picks and I just ran through them on hockeydb and already they mostly look like throwaways excepting maybe Berglund who they got in the 3rd.

Benson is just the perfect Oilers pick, he was such a hyped 1st overall bantam draft pick coming into the WHL and never really did much in the dub, Oilers draft him on pedigree because he's a former 1st overall. Kid is doing OK in the A and might still play a bit as a 2nd or 3rd liner if everything comes together perfectly but looking at the guys who went within a few picks of him like Kyrou, Thompson, Steel, Howden and Debrincat that's gotta sting a bit at the moment.

Hearing them say that Chia "built depth" when you look at their prospect cupboard beyond Bouchard is hilarious.

I've been avoiding talking about this because it bugs me so much, but Puljujärvi is the epitome of how badly the Oilers can ruin a young player.

Pulju is just flat out worse now than when they drafted him. This is a kid that was successful in a men's league since he was I think 16, 17 at the latest. A kid that rose his level of play when the pressure was on. His last playoffs in Finland he he scored something like 9 points in 10 games. He was a really, really good prospect.

But he was also raw. Honestly I feel he was already somewhat rushed in Finland, and never got to develop his game properly. He's also maybe not the smartest guy ever. Think Taylor Hall. He needed more guidance than some, and he needed time to develop. Think Mark Jankowski (at the time of drafting), but better at everything hockey related; faster, more skilled, better shot, higher hockey IQ.

There's a reason this kid put the kind of point in WJC that usually only future legends put up. Same kind of numbers as Lindros, Gretzky, Forsberg had scored in WJC. Raw, but crazy potential. Only question was whether he'd be just a really good player or a superstar. He wasn't a guaranteed star like Laine, but there is absolutely no question in my mind that this kid should be putting up at least 60+ points a season.

But he's just decimated by the Oilers. He's visibly slower, and I really can't see a single area of his play that has improved at all since his junior days. Again, Puljujärvi was a flat out better player at 17 than he's now.

But worst of all, he looks disinterested and at times downright miserable, and that just breaks my heart. This kid became a fan favorite in Finland in part because he
was a very happy, positive kid who just looked so happy to play hockey that it was contagious.

It looks like the Oilers haven't only utterly failed to develop a player that should be highly entertaining to watch, they've actually made him worse by killing his joy to play.

I am never going to forgive this. I seriously wish the Oilers die as a franchise. They're a cancer on hockey.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Yeah, I'd be interesting to see how he would have developed under a different franchise, one that knows what they're doing, and doesn't rush young players.

[CaptainCrunch]

I would argue that he walked into their first camp with a low hockey IQ and has dealt with that ever since. the things that he could get away with in juniors or in a European men's league you can recover from if you have decent speed, you can recover from your errors.

In the NHL you can't the game is just on a hugely higher level then a euro mens league.

There were obviously warts on that toad when the GM of a team that is a country man who watched him play a lot went "nah, pass".

I think his stats in the world juniors for example were exaggerated based on his line mates.

He's got some nice physical skills but Yak had those in spades but the same problem. His ability to think the game can be measured on a calendar not a stop watch.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would argue that he walked into their first camp with a low hockey IQ and has dealt with that ever since. the things that he could get away with in juniors or in a European men's league you can recover from if you have decent speed, you can recover from your errors.

In the NHL you can't the game is just on a hugely higher level then a euro mens league.

There were obviously warts on that toad when the GM of a team that is a country man who watched him play a lot went "nah, pass".

I think his stats in the world juniors for example were exaggerated based on his line mates.

He's got some nice physical skills but Yak had those in spades but the same problem. His ability to think the game can be measured on a calendar not a stop watch.

Yeah you pretty clearly didn't watch him play before he came to the Oilers. He was no dumber than Taylor Hall, and that guy found success.

Difference is, Puljujärvi didn't speak English. I know, dumb to not learn if you want to play in the NHL, but again he was only hockey smart. He also needed someone to basically guide him by the hand to learn English, which the Oilers famously didn't do for at least the first year.

Also, people give ridiculous meaning to Kekäläinen not picking Puljujärvi. Kekäläinen has no special love for Finnish players, on the contrary he almost seems to avoid them as to not look like he's biased. Plus Columbus wanted a center and a more guaranteed prospect. It's not some big warning sign.

[Itse]

(The following is purely speculation, but it is a well known story that Puljujärvi has lived alone since he was 13. He moved to a bigger town to play hockey, and was apparently pretty much brought up by his hockey club.

This isn't in any way normal in Finland, and even though everyone says his club Kärpät took good care of him, I strongly suspect there's some pretty big lapses there that are a big reason why he would actually need quite a lot of handholding now. I also kind of wonder about his parents. But again, speculation.)

[1Nite]

I think he was utterly devastated by being drafted by the oilers, from growing up a Flames fan, and dreaming of finally making it to his draft, then the worst thing that he could imagine,he is slowly imploding on the inside with the horrors of what happened to him, he might be saved if he was to be traded away from that mess.