American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[RedHot25]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-...berg-1.6554683

A top executive at former U.S. president Donald Trump's family business pleaded guilty Thursday to evading taxes in a deal that could potentially make him a star witness against the company at a fall trial.

Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg pleaded guilty to all 15 of the charges he faced in the case, which included charges of tax fraud, grand larceny and falsifying business records. He was accused of dodging taxes on lavish fringe benefits he got from the company, including lease payments for a luxury car, rent for a Manhattan apartment and private school tuition for his grandchildren.

Seen as one of Trump's most loyal business associates, Weisselberg was arrested in July 2021. He is the only person to face criminal charges so far in the Manhattan district attorney's long-running investigation of the company's business practices.

Judge Juan Manuel Merchan agreed to sentence Weisselberg, 75, to five months incarceration and five years probation at New York City's Rikers Island jail complex, although he will be eligible for release much earlier if he behaves well behind bars. The judge said Weisselberg will have to pay nearly $2 million US in taxes, penalties and interest.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-...berg-1.6554683

This is interesting, in that it unravels the core of Trump's family scheme to live their lavish life. If Weisselberg was taking millions of tax evading perks, you can bet Trump's family was taking 10s of millions. It's basically the same scheme that took down the Bluth family!

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

If you're right, and the GOP takes the house and senate as predicted, then the US will 100% go full Handmaid's Tale

Democrats are now favoured to maintain control of the Senate and the house.

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Democrats are now favoured to maintain control of the Senate and the house.

That's been quite the surprising development and the real X factor of the next few months. The democrats love to underperform their expectations, so I am wondering exactly where this all lands.

[photon]

538 still has Republicans favoured to take the house:

[JohnnyB]

That senate forecast is lovely.

[MoneyGuy]

So, it’s good that the Dems are projected (currently) to control the Senate, but how does it impair them if they lose the House? I find the U.S. system confusing.

[ResAlien]

If different parties control one of each it’s simply gridlock. Nothing more nothing less

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

So, it’s good that the Dems are projected (currently) to control the Senate, but how does it impair them if they lose the House? I find the U.S. system confusing.

Originally Posted by ResAlien

If different parties control one of each it’s simply gridlock. Nothing more nothing less

That. Legislation needs both the house and senate to pass, so if they're split then absolutely nothing gets done. The senate is the more important branch though as that controls judicial confirmations

[photon]

Basically it would make Republicans able to block anything.. any legislation has to pass through both the House and the Senate before it can be signed into law by the President.

To get most things through the Senate requires 60 votes anyway, so that's usually where legislation dies.. the exception being reconciliation bills can get through the Senate with a bare majority (or the VP being a tie breaker).

"Budget reconciliation bills can deal with spending, revenue, and the federal debt limit, and the Senate can pass one bill per year affecting each subject." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconc...tates_Congress)

The House only requires a majority to pass legislation.

So any legislation that isn't reconciliation requires Republican votes anyway, so doing something like putting access to abortion or same sex marriage into law requires a majority in the House and a super majority in the Senate (60 votes).

Which means even now doing anything except reconciliation that doesn't have support from Republicans is impossible.

Losing the House would mean more Republican support would be needed to do anything, but that's a barrier to almost everything as it is so not much would change for non-reconciliation legislation.

Reconciliation type legislation would be harder to pass but they would still do it since it's stuff like budget to make sure the government stays in operation.

Increased chance of government shutdowns when they can't all agree, Republicans will suddenly become debt hawks again, etc.

EDIT: Good point about judicial confirmations.

[MoneyGuy]

So, in some sense it renders the government impotent. I haven’t read this yet but found this which will help me better understand how the U.S. government works.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the...lative-branch/

[TorqueDog]

The Senate requires 60 votes to end debate and a simple majority to pass a bill. It's weird.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Democrats are now favoured to maintain control of the Senate and the house.

Betting odds, maybe.

But 538 still has a clear Republican victory even though I think Trump is hurting the GOP right now.

[activeStick]

The bottom line is, odds are indicating a Republican majority in the House and a narrow win for the Dems in the Senate. Meaning a bunch if crazy things being ideated in the House that end up being blocked by the Dems in the Senate and in general, a whole lot of nothing getting done, which the GOP will use to their advantage in 2024...

[photon]

Basically back to Obama years where Republicans considered like 100 different bills to repeal or defund or gut the ACA (and actually passed like a dozen of them).

Easy to pass a bill to do something unpopular but virtue signals to your base when you know it isn't going to become law.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm surprised to hear this opinion. I think he's the exact opposite of Cruz in that he has a killer instinct and is plenty charismatic enough for a politician. People tolerate Cruz, but they love DeSantis.

I like DeSantis. He seems like the kind of conservatives that most old school republicans can get behind and definitely more palatable than someone like Trump, Palin, or Tom Cotton.

Dems might be in trouble because Biden is basically a corpse and I don't know who takes over. Harris doesn't poll well and isn't likeable and Gavin Newsome is definitely not the answer either.

I wonder if a DeSantis/Haley ticket is how the republicans would go in 2024.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I like DeSantis. He seems like the kind of conservatives that most old school republicans can get behind and definitely more palatable than someone like Trump, Palin, or Tom Cotton.

Dems might be in trouble because Biden is basically a corpse and I don't know who takes over. Harris doesn't poll well and isn't likeable and Gavin Newsome is definitely not the answer either.

I wonder if a DeSantis/Haley ticket is how the republicans would go in 2024.

I kind am starting to suspect DeSantis is following into the trap democrats generally fall into - push on moral issues you think your base cares about when its only a fringe % of the electorate.



I think he is so surrounded by yes people he doesn't realize how little people care about his social issues, yet some of these social issues have opponents in masses who do care.


The opposite of the left's sometimes over zealous 'wokeness' the right hammers them on

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I like DeSantis. He seems like the kind of conservatives that most old school republicans can get behind and definitely more palatable than someone like Trump, Palin, or Tom Cotton.

Dems might be in trouble because Biden is basically a corpse and I don't know who takes over. Harris doesn't poll well and isn't likeable and Gavin Newsome is definitely not the answer either.

I wonder if a DeSantis/Haley ticket is how the republicans would go in 2024.

Curious on why you think Newsom isn't the answer?

I think Newsom would wipe the floor with DeSantis who daily now is looking like a crazy mini-me from the Trump world, Newsom would shred him apart in debates and in policy.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I really don't understand why they continue to idolize Trump. He's a loser. He lost to Joe Biden. Who lines up behind a loser? Giant losers, that's who.

Because they’re compromised. The GOP are a Russian asset.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I really don't understand why they continue to idolize Trump. He's a loser. He lost to Joe Biden. Who lines up behind a loser? Giant losers, that's who.

The GOP is more concerned with holding onto power. They will happily spout Trumps big lie if it helps them win a Primary and then the Midterms.