[Trade] Kevin Hayes to Philly for a 5th round pick

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Husky

I do not agree. If Tkachuk takes another step plus you get a nice core piece in return - the trade is more about he team now being MT's team. Maybe the offense isn't dynamic or build around 1 player but its not a rebuild. Its a retool with a young core still.

Agreed.

Trading JG is going to net you more than 1 key current piece to lessen the blow of losing a 99pt player. Its not like your giving up JG for nothing but picks and prospects, your looking for a high 1st, A+ prospect(s) and 1-2 core pieces in return.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

IMO if you deal Gaudreau you're signalling a rebuild. He's your best player, he makes lesser players around him better, so by dealing him you're really committing to being a worse team.

I don't think there is the organizational imperative to compete like that. For what it's worth, I think it's an inevitability, but I don't think Flames ownership does a very good job of forecasting these sorts of things.

Honestly, it would be tough to deal gaudreau and get better in the following couple of years, and I just don't think this organization has the appetite for that.

Define rebuild.

Are the Flames going scorched Earth? Probably not.

Even if Gaudreau is gone, all of Monahan, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Lindholm, Valimaki, Andersson, Bennett, etc... are all likely sticking around.

Realistically we are trading Gaudreau and maybe Giordano and/or Backlund? Other than that the roster is staying largely the same. The idea would be to move Gaudreau for a forward that can take over on the #1 line in 1-2 years. Even without Gaudreau the Flames have enough young pieces that they can retool and build around the remaining core.

A true rebuild take 5-6 years. That would be a massive mistake with so many young players on the team.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

IMO if you deal Gaudreau you're signalling a rebuild. He's your best player, he makes lesser players around him better, so by dealing him you're really committing to being a worse team.

I don't think there is the organizational imperative to compete like that. For what it's worth, I think it's an inevitability, but I don't think Flames ownership does a very good job of forecasting these sorts of things.

Honestly, it would be tough to deal gaudreau and get better in the following couple of years, and I just don't think this organization has the appetite for that.

I think we all thought the same when Tavares left NYI for Toronto, and they didnt get any pieces back.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Perhaps. Probably.
For me though it's just about doing a better job of managing the assets. Do I think the window slams shut if Johnny is traded? No I don't. But I also think if they try to extend that window their is risk in a deal being bad long-term.
And I don't think it's just Philly that you would target: Philly, NJ, NYI, NYR,Boston. Create a bidding war that gives you a plethora of riches.

Maybe. It's not apples to apples because of the ####show that is the Sens organization, but I just don't know how often these types of blockbusters actually happen. If Philly or Boston are trying to add gaudreau at his current super discounted salary, with the objective of winning, they probably aren't going to be interested in trading significant contributors off their roster.

That's always the dance when dealing with a team looking to win immediately. They don't want to give you anything that's already helping them win games. The rangers might be your best bet because of how rich their are in assets, but again, you're probably not talking their bluest of chippers or their brightest ELC, and they are probably juuuuuust outside of that window of looking to go all-in at that point.

Originally Posted by Wolfman

My thoughts exactly.

Originally Posted by nik-

Depending on what happens next post season, it's probably going to be the team signaling a rebuild. Another showing like that and we're just deluding ourselves if we don't start over with a handful of the young pieces.

We're already there in my mind but yes, it will be harder to justify after another less than spectacular showing.

Originally Posted by Husky

I do not agree. If Tkachuk takes another step plus you get a nice core piece in return - the trade is more about he team now being MT's team. Maybe the offense isn't dynamic or build around 1 player but its not a rebuild. Its a retool with a young core still.

Eh, I don't think it's that young anymore, and quite frankly, the Flames are still quite deficient in terms of their roster makeup. A lot can happen, but you're banking on the Flames getting a player who impacts the roster almost as much as Gaudreau PLUS adding a player that improves on Monahan/Backlund at the centre position. Tough sledding.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I would hate to trade him but I actually kind of feel like if you know Gaudreau wants to go to the Flyers then this might be the summer to pull the trigger.

Flyers appear to be going all in to win with Giroux (3 years left), they have some cap space, have the right combination of picks/roster players/prospects, and Fletcher as new GM seems to have the marching orders to make a splash this summer.

Lots of good pieces in the Flyers organization:

Top Pick: Check
11th Overall Pick

Good Young Roster Players: Check
Gostisbehere - 4 x $4.5M
Konecny - RFA
Sanheim - RFA
Provorov - RFA
Patrick - ELC

Prospects: Check
Morgan Frost
Joel Farabee
Jay O'Brien
German Rubtsov

If the Flyers called up the Flames with a "godfather" offer and offered 11th overall, Konecny, and 2-3 other pieces from what I have listed then I'd probably do it.

Sure, start the car in this scenario.

Originally Posted by Royle9

Agreed.

Trading JG is going to net you more than 1 key current piece to lessen the blow of losing a 99pt player. Its not like your giving up JG for nothing but picks and prospects, your looking for a high 1st, A+ prospect(s) and 1-2 core pieces in return.

I don't think that deal is out there. First, because if you're trading with a team going all in they probably don't have a high 1st, they probably aren't going to give you a core piece, let alone 2 (because they are trying to win) and who knows what an A+ prospect actually is until they are playing games.

Originally Posted by blankall

Define rebuild.

Are the Flames going scorched Earth? Probably not.

Even if Gaudreau is gone, all of Monahan, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Lindholm, Valimaki, Andersson, Bennett, etc... are all likely sticking around.

Realistically we are trading Gaudreau and maybe Giordano and/or Backlund? Other than that the roster is staying largely the same. The idea would be to move Gaudreau for a forward that can take over on the #1 line in 1-2 years. Even without Gaudreau the Flames have enough young pieces that they can retool and build around the remaining core.

A true rebuild take 5-6 years. That would be a massive mistake with so many young players on the team.

I don't think the flames WILL go rebuild, I'm suggesting they should. They don't often do the things I think they should, so I'm going to hazard a guess they won't go in that direction.

Originally Posted by Cheese

I think we all thought the same when Tavares left NYI for Toronto, and they didnt get any pieces back.

Well, not really, because Barzal had just played his first season and outscored Tavares by a point.

If Tkachuk is a 40g/60a player next year, maybe that means it's likelier, but I don't see it as the same situation.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I would hate to trade him but I actually kind of feel like if you know Gaudreau wants to go to the Flyers then this might be the summer to pull the trigger.

Flyers appear to be going all in to win with Giroux (3 years left), they have some cap space, have the right combination of picks/roster players/prospects, and Fletcher as new GM seems to have the marching orders to make a splash this summer.

Lots of good pieces in the Flyers organization:

Top Pick: Check
11th Overall Pick

Good Young Roster Players: Check
Gostisbehere - 4 x $4.5M
Konecny - RFA
Sanheim - RFA
Provorov - RFA
Patrick - ELC

Prospects: Check
Morgan Frost
Joel Farabee
Jay O'Brien
German Rubtsov

If the Flyers called up the Flames with a "godfather" offer and offered 11th overall, Konecny, and 2-3 other pieces from what I have listed then I'd probably do it.

I think that has the outline of a realistic trade, but still too rich for the Flyers. I could see something like:

To Flyers:

Gaudreau
Kylington
Flames 2019 1st (26 OA)

To Flames

Konecny
Frost
Flyers 2019 1st (11 OA)

But I just don't see Flames' ownership signing off on moving Gaudreau. He's the face of the franchise, and they're still in negotiations for the new arena. They need Johnny to help sell tickets and the inevitable ticket price increases.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Trading Gaudreau does not imply a rebuild. That’s some faulty logic

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I think that has the outline of a realistic trade, but still too rich for the Flyers. I could see something like:

To Flyers:

Gaudreau
Kylington
Flames 2019 1st (26 OA)

To Flames

Konecny
Frost
Flyers 2019 1st (11 OA)

But I just don't see Flames' ownership signing off on moving Gaudreau. He's the face of the franchise, and they're still in negotiations for the new arena. They need Johnny to help sell tickets and the inevitable ticket price increases.

Take out Kylington and the Flames first and Philly might still need to add one more piece.

Flames have no reason to shop or move Gaudreau so a move would have to be an overpayment.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Trading Gaudreau does not imply a rebuild. That’s some faulty logic

The problem is it's extremely difficulty in today's NHL to trade a star in his prime for another star in his prime. The teams looking to trade for a Gaudreau are in Win Now mode, and won't want to give up a current front-line player - they'd much rather move prospects and picks.

How many big star for big star trades have we seen in the last 5 or 6 years? Other than the two deals Poile pulled off (which were widely regarded as surprising throwbacks), I can't think of any.

[Toonage]

In:
Patrick + Konecny + Flyers 2019 1st
Out:
Gaudreau
Also out: happiness

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Maybe. It's not apples to apples because of the ####show that is the Sens organization, but I just don't know how often these types of blockbusters actually happen. If Philly or Boston are trying to add gaudreau at his current super discounted salary, with the objective of winning, they probably aren't going to be interested in trading significant contributors off their roster.

That's always the dance when dealing with a team looking to win immediately. They don't want to give you anything that's already helping them win games. The rangers might be your best bet because of how rich their are in assets, but again, you're probably not talking their bluest of chippers or their brightest ELC, and they are probably juuuuuust outside of that window of looking to go all-in at that point.

The Flames can trade Gaudreau to which ever team they want—they are not limited to just moving him to the East coast. If three years of Gaudreau @ $6.75 m is on the market, then they will absolutely get a huge return. The Flames would be fielding offers from almost every team in the NHL; all they would need to do is to pick the best one.

We're already there in my mind but yes, it will be harder to justify after another less than spectacular showing.

This has been addressed numerous times, but the single-playoff-round window of evaluation is an extremely small one upon which to draw hard conclusions about a team. There are tonnes of variables at play; more than likely the Flames's early exit was not a result of deficient talent.

Eh, I don't think it's that young anymore, and quite frankly, the Flames are still quite deficient in terms of their roster makeup...

It doesn't really matter what you think. The Flames are demonstrably younger than 19 other NHL teams, and they were the second best team to finish the regular season. Of the four teams in the Conference Finals only Carolina was younger. The roster requires supplement and adjustment, not the sort of wholesale changes that you are constantly advising.

I don't think that deal is out there. First, because if you're trading with a team going all in they probably don't have a high 1st, they probably aren't going to give you a core piece, let alone 2 (because they are trying to win) and who knows what an A+ prospect actually is until they are playing games.

Again, the simple solution then is to trade with a team that makes a much better offer from the plethora of buyers who will be eager to acquire a young, +90-point player on a fantastic three-year deal. It is so weird that you think the only place Gaudreau can be moved is to a handful of teams on the East Coast.

I don't think the flames WILL go rebuild, I'm suggesting they should. They don't often do the things I think they should, so I'm going to hazard a guess they won't go in that direction...

Thank the good lord for that. Team building requires patience and commitment, and we have seen positive results from this approach to date.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Take out Kylington and the Flames first and Philly might still need to add one more piece.

Flames have no reason to shop or move Gaudreau so a move would have to be an overpayment.

The payment you're suggesting is bigger than any player has received since... I'm honestly struggling to think of a comparable. Lindros?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

But I just don't see Flames' ownership signing off on moving Gaudreau. He's the face of the franchise, and they're still in negotiations for the new arena. They need Johnny to help sell tickets and the inevitable ticket price increases.

I very much doubt Gaudreau would be moved. But I am not sure he is the face of the franchise. I thought he was going to be but I don't think he's going to be any more. Nothing against him, I just don't think that's a role he wants or for which he very well suited.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The payment you're suggesting is bigger than any player has received since... I'm honestly struggling to think of a comparable. Lindros?

99 point players with term rarely get moved - especially on sweetheart contracts with 3 years remaining. If Gaudreau get's moved it's because its a big overpay, or else the Flames have no reason to trade him.

Some of the closest recent examples of 3+ pieces for a all star under contract.

Matt Duchene
for
Girard
Kamenev
Bowers
2019 1st
2018 2nd

Milan Lucic
for
No. 13 pick in 2015
Martn Jones (Flipped for 2016 first-round pick)
Colin Miller
Sean Kuraly

Ryan O'Reilly
for
Vladimir Sobotka
Patrik Berglund
Tage Thompson
2019 1st round pick
2021 2nd round pick

All of those examples would be returns similar to the 3-4 pieces that I posted, with no pieces going back to the team acquiring the star. Also Gaudreau would be coming off a better season than any of those 3 players, would be regarded much higher than they were at the time of their trades, and there is no public trade demand - so the return would have to be higher as well.

The return proposed there would get Treliving fired. Going from pick 26 to 11, and (Maybe) upgrading from Kylington to Frost, is not worth near the downgrade from Gaudreau to Konecny.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

All of those examples would be returns similar to the 3-4 pieces that I posted, with no pieces going back to the team acquiring the star.

Disagree.

Konecny is only 22, he's already a much better player than any of the roster pieces (Girard, Berglund, Miller) going back in those deals, and he likely hasn't reached his ceiling.

Frost is a top-15 prospect in the NHL, worth much more than Kamenev, Kuraly, or Thompson. He's comparable as an asset to Valimaki.

And the 11 OA is higher than any of the picks involved in those deals.

Here's a comparable deal for a star LW:

To Penguins:

Kessel
Biggs
Erixon

To Leafs:

Kapanen
Spalling
Harrington
3rd

That's a much worse deal than the one I proposed. And I don't recall Shanahan getting fired after making it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Disagree.

Konecny is only 22, he's already a much better player than any of the roster pieces (Girard, Berglund, Miller) going back in those deals, and he likely hasn't reached his ceiling.

Frost is a top-15 prospect in the NHL, worth much more than Kamenev, Kuraly, or Thompson. He's comparable as an asset to Valimaki.

And the 11 OA is higher than any of the picks involved in those deals.

Here's a comparable deal for a star LW:

To Penguins:

Kessel
Biggs
Erixon

To Leafs:

Kapanen
Spalling
Harrington
3rd

That's a much worse deal than the one I proposed. And I don't recall Shanahan getting fired after making it.

You are forgetting the conditional 2016 first round pick, which Toronto then traded to Anaheim and which they used to select Sam Steele.

At the time of that deal, a 27-year-old Phil Kessel was coming off the first year of an 8 x $8.0 m deal, which represented 11.2% of the salary cap, and he finished the year with goal and point totals well below his career averages—to say nothing for his career high of 82-points. His contract was long and expensive for what he provided, and he appeared to be entering a period of decline, which is why Toronto had to also retain $1.2 m of his contract.

I don't think your comparison is remotely similar: Gaudreau is considerably younger, considerably cheaper, and considerably better than Kessel was at the time he was moved to Pittsburgh.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I think that has the outline of a realistic trade, but still too rich for the Flyers. I could see something like:

To Flyers:

Gaudreau
Kylington
Flames 2019 1st (26 OA)

To Flames

Konecny
Frost
Flyers 2019 1st (11 OA)

But I just don't see Flames' ownership signing off on moving Gaudreau. He's the face of the franchise, and they're still in negotiations for the new arena. They need Johnny to help sell tickets and the inevitable ticket price increases.

Horrible trade for the Flames and laughable you suggest it is too rich for the Flyers. The opposite of a homer take and a pure grass is greener approach.

[SuperMatt18]

Based on that contract Hayes just got I actually think the price for Gaudreau would be higher than what I was saying before.

Teams would really have to overpay based on how sweet that contract is in the current cap climate.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Based on that contract Hayes just got I actually think the price for Gaudreau would be higher than what I was saying before.

Teams would really have to overpay based on how sweet that contract is in the current cap climate.

For me to accept the deal it would have to be:
Konecy
Patrick
Sanheim
11OA

4 of the Flyers best pieces for our franchise player. Flames get all good pieces but no potential franchise players unless they hit on that draft pick.