THN Future Watch

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

All I know is that it’s pretty 50-50 among NHL teams to have a self-drafted goalie as their starter, and plenty acquired both of their present goalies from elsewhere.

This is true, but almost all cup-winning goalies are drafted and developed by the team they're on:

2020: Vasilevsky
2019: Binnington
2018: Holtby
2017: Murray
2016: Murray
2015: Crawford
2014: Quick
2013: Crawford
2012: Quick
2011: Thomas (the team that drafted him no longer existed. Boston was the only team he had ever played for)

In fact, most of of the goalies get to the finals in general were drafted and developed by the team they're still on.
I don't think any free agent signed goalies, who play as starters, have won a cup in over 50 years.
If the Flames can't manage to both draft and develop a goalie, they're probably not going to win a cup.

They've drafted many goalies who looked promising out of the gate (Gillies, Parsons, even Irving). They've drafted goalies who have gone on to have careers (Anderson, McElhinney). Undrafted guys like Rittich and Roloson have been signed. McElhinney is probably the closest thing to being both drafted and developed, since he was with the organization for 8 years.

It seems like development is the problem. The prospects either falter or they leave the organization and become NHL goalies somewhere else.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This is true, but almost all cup-winning goalies are drafted and developed by the team they're on:

2020: Vasilevsky
2019: Binnington
2018: Holtby
2017: Murray
2016: Murray
2015: Crawford
2014: Quick
2013: Crawford
2012: Quick
2011: Thomas (the team that drafted him no longer existed. Boston was the only team he had ever played for)

In fact, most of of the goalies get to the finals in general were drafted and developed by the team they're still on.
I don't think any free agent signed goalies, who play as starters, have won a cup in over 50 years.
If the Flames can't manage to both draft and develop a goalie, they're probably not going to win a cup.

They've drafted many goalies who looked promising out of the gate (Gillies, Parsons, even Irving). They've drafted goalies who have gone on to have careers (Anderson, McElhinney). Undrafted guys like Rittich and Roloson have been signed. McElhinney is probably the closest thing to being both drafted and developed, since he was with the organization for 8 years.

It seems like development is the problem. The prospects either falter or they leave the organization and become NHL goalies somewhere else.

I’ll give you all of those but Thomas because he was like 30 before he played in the NHL.

But, I disagree with your closing statement. Looking at this, and the other teams in the league, it seems like nailing this is a key to winning a cup. But the development ‘problem’ affects basically every other team in the league. It’s as much luck as it is skill.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This is true, but almost all cup-winning goalies are drafted and developed by the team they're on...

I know you have made this point before, but I just don't see what can meaningfully be construed from it. Why would drafting your own goalie be significant to winning playoff rounds? What is the reasoning behind it?

I suspect this has more to do with the age of cup-winning goalies, but even this has to do with being in the right place and getting "hot" at the right time—Jordan Binnington is nothing special.

This reminds me of the 1990s, when it was widely believed that a European captain, or a European goalies could never win the Stanley Cup. It's a weird statistic that probably doesn't actually mean anything, because it doesn't make any sense that it would.

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[GioforPM]

It’s fine to draft and develop your starter and win the cup. But was Murray really the key to the Pens, or could they have as easily traded for a guy just like him? They certainly didn’t think enough of him to keep him. Who gets credit for Rask? Toronto drafted him, he never played for them. Speaking of Toronto - they imported all 3 of their goalies right now and are leading the division.

And there was another team in each of those finals.

[Poe969]

There was another team in the finals...that didn't win. The leafs are leading the division but a few years ago, the Flames lead the whole western conference and got bounced first round. The pens could have just traded for a guy like Murray but by actually having him they didn't have to give up any assets from the team to win. As for Rask, he's a lot like Thomas who was drafted by the leafs but was never really a part of the organization, he was always a Bruin.

There are lots of little things you can point out that might have factored in to things or changed things but the bottom line is that having a quality goalie (be it a star to steal games or someone just good enough) in the team's system helps win the cup.

If the Flames are slotted to draft around 10 or so, Wallstead or whatever would really help the team out. They need to start to build a team and having a top notch goalie would help a lot. If they can't get the best D or F then get the best G.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

There was another team in the finals...that didn't win. The leafs are leading the division but a few years ago, the Flames lead the whole western conference and got bounced first round. The pens could have just traded for a guy like Murray but by actually having him they didn't have to give up any assets from the team to win. As for Rask, he's a lot like Thomas who was drafted by the leafs but was never really a part of the organization, he was always a Bruin.

There are lots of little things you can point out that might have factored in to things or changed things but the bottom line is that having a quality goalie (be it a star to steal games or someone just good enough) in the team's system helps win the cup.

If the Flames are slotted to draft around 10 or so, Wallstead or whatever would really help the team out. They need to start to build a team and having a top notch goalie would help a lot. If they can't get the best D or F then get the best G.

I’d rather do like Boston and grab a Rask, who you’ve seen for more than a couple years of junior. Sure you can draft a goalie high and get Price or Vasilevsky. You can also draft a goalie high and get Kidd, or Thibeault, or Chet Pickard, or Montoya...

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I know you have made this point before, but I just don't see what can meaningfully be construed from it. Why would drafting your own goalie be significant to winning playoff rounds? What is the reasoning behind it?

I suspect this has more to do with the age of cup-winning goalies, but even this has to do with being in the right place and getting "hot" at the right time—Jordan Binnington is nothing special.

This reminds me of the 1990s, when it was widely believed that a European captain, or a European goalies could never win the Stanley Cup. It's a weird statistic that probably doesn't actually mean anything, because it doesn't make any sense that it would.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

Yes, it's simply a noted correlation. And it's generally not wise to rely on past correlations, because there's no way of knowing whether those trends will continue.

But there are explanations that might explain bits of it. For an example, most goalies who win cups are under the age of 30. Most home-grown goalies are also under the age of 30. Most FA signed goalies are over 30. So one could argue that for winning cups, younger goalies are better. Though there are exceptions (Thomas tends to be an exception to everything. Crawford had just turned 30 in 2015).

Perhaps younger goalies are less prone to breaking down after long seasons + playoffs. Or maybe when they get hot, they get very hot. Or maybe they have better contracts, leaving room for more cap space for other parts of the roster. Maybe teams that are good at drafting + developing goalies are just good at drafting + developing in general, so they have strong teams.

[Strange Brew]

I think the contract angle is important. I haven’t checked but I’d bet a lot of those Cup winning goalies weren’t on big contracts. And younger.

Like any position, spending big dollars on older players is going to hurt you.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I think the contract angle is important. I haven’t checked but I’d bet a lot of those Cup winning goalies weren’t on big contracts. And younger.

Like any position, spending big dollars on older players is going to hurt you.

Holtby was over $6M and Crawford was $6M when he won, I think.

But generally, probably right:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-stanley-cup/

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Holtby was over $6M and Crawford was $6M when he won, I think.

But generally, probably right:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-stanley-cup/

Not to mention the Penguins were paying Fleury like a top number one during that time as well.

[albertGQ]

I just picked up my copy yesterday. Can’t wait to read it.

I get two issues of THN every year.

This one and the draft preview.

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This is true, but almost all cup-winning goalies are drafted and developed by the team they're on:

2020: Vasilevsky
2019: Binnington
2018: Holtby
2017: Murray
2016: Murray
2015: Crawford
2014: Quick
2013: Crawford
2012: Quick
2011: Thomas (the team that drafted him no longer existed. Boston was the only team he had ever played for)

In fact, most of of the goalies get to the finals in general were drafted and developed by the team they're still on.
I don't think any free agent signed goalies, who play as starters, have won a cup in over 50 years.
If the Flames can't manage to both draft and develop a goalie, they're probably not going to win a cup.

They've drafted many goalies who looked promising out of the gate (Gillies, Parsons, even Irving). They've drafted goalies who have gone on to have careers (Anderson, McElhinney). Undrafted guys like Rittich and Roloson have been signed. McElhinney is probably the closest thing to being both drafted and developed, since he was with the organization for 8 years.

It seems like development is the problem. The prospects either falter or they leave the organization and become NHL goalies somewhere else.

Khabibulin says what's up?

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

I just picked up my copy yesterday. Can’t wait to read it.

I get two issues of THN every year.

This one and the draft preview.

Hope I didn’t ruin anything for you.....

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Hope I didn’t ruin anything for you.....

Nope. All good. Thanks for starting the thread! It reminded me that it was gonna be on sale soon.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Nope. All good. Thanks for starting the thread! It reminded me that it was gonna be on sale soon.

I have a subscription, but I'm like you-Draft Preview, and Future Watch are the ones I look forward to. Probably a little too much.

[albertGQ]

Interesting that the Panthers 3rd and 4th round picks in 2020 are ranked as higher prospects than Emil Heineman who was their 2nd rounder in 2020

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Hockey News Future Watch Issue is out! Highlights:

Flames rank 26th in the league with a grade of C, up from last year's rank of 29th.

1)Ottawa A
2)NYR A
3)LA A
4)Anaheim A-
5)Montreal A-
6)Colorado A-
7)Detroit B+
8)NJ B+
9)Buffalo B+
10)Florida B+
11)Chicago B+
12)Dallas B+
13)Carolina B
14)Vancouver B
15)Winnipeg B-
16)Vegas B-
17)Philly B-
18)Columbus B-
19)Toronto C+
20)Minny C+
21)E=NG C+
22)Nashville C+
23)Washington C+
24)St.Louis C+
25)NYI C
26) Calgary C
27)Boston C
28)Arizona C
29)TB C-
30)SJ C-
31)Pittsburgh D+

Top 5 Prospects were 1)Zegras (ANA) 2)Byfield (LA) 3)Drysdale (ANA) 4)Raymond (DET) 5)Seider (DET)

The only two Flames to make the top 100 were Zary(42) and Pelletier(43). Flames top 10 in order were: Zary, Pelletier, Mackey, Gawdin, Pettersen, Wolf, Zavgorodniy, Kuznetsov, Ruzicka, Poirier.
Heineman was 9th on the Panthers list.

So our ex Coyotes Mgmt team is performing to the level of the actual Coyotes. Looks about right.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Psytic

So our ex Coyotes Mgmt team is performing to the level of the actual Coyotes. Looks about right.

You do know that the Coyotes have a better record than the Flames.


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[Psytic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You do know that the Coyotes have a better record than the Flames.


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So even worse then ? Keeps getting better.

[GioforPM]

Does anyone ever check back on the team prospect rankings like, 3-5 years later, to see how accurate they were? We all comment on them as they come out, but they can only be as good as their track record as far as predictive tools right?