Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
I love the narrative that Sanders couldn't get the voter turnout he needed once the moderates coalesced behind one candidate, which completely ignores the fact that Warren played spoiler yesterday by not dropping out.
If Bernie grabbed even a 1/3 of Warren's votes, we're likely having a much different conversation this morning.
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Yes, but the whole delegate-math and State wins need to be looked at differently as well.
To wit:
So Biden won Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
None of those states are going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.
Biden also won Massachusetts and Minnesota.
Those states are likely going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.
Biden also won North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Maybe
two of those states will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee, but it depends on who that might be.
Bernie, on the other hand, won California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont.
California and Vermont will vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be, and Colorado will likely too, but Utah isn't going to going to vote for the democratic Presidential nominee regardless of who that might be.
Taking all of that in, I think that people should really disregard the wins in those States where the Democrats don't have a chance in November (most of the south), and instead focus on who won in the likely swing states (North Carolina, Virginia), and on the margin of victory in the safe states.
Looking at it that way, one can see where the Democratic base really is and what they want and what the moderates/swing voters want.
To my eye, it isn't Biden and his policies except for in a very few districts.
Which means that if Biden is the nominee (and I'm guessing at this point he likely will be), he might win the Presidency simply due to the "I hate Trump" factor, but the base isn't going to be happy and their discontent might make his presidency not go so well.