Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Either way there are a lot of good options for Leon. If I was his agent, I would basically tell the Oilers I would not be willing to sign before the free agency period unless the team either

A) offered 48 million over 6
B) offered 60 million over 7 or
C) offered 72 million over 8

He has had two seasons and a playoff that justify those numbers. And I would be reasonably confident that somebody may be willing to offer sheet my guy in any event.

Yeah, but Leon Draisaitl's actual agent won't be operating from the position of "Lets do whatever is worst for the Oilers" like you would be.

That's something you have to take into account.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Yeah, but Leon Draisaitl's actual agent won't be operating from the position of "Lets do whatever is worst for the Oilers" like you would be.

That's something you have to take into account.

Why wouldn't he? Unless Leon has told his agent I want to take a discount to remain with this team, the agents job is to get the most amount of money possible. Edmonton can either pay it now or roll the dice on a game they most likely don't want to play.

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Oilers fans on the HF forums keep saying to look at Draisatl as an example of why you need to be patient. The difference is that Draisatl's biggest problem was by far his skating, and he improved on it to get to NHL level. Poolparty's problems seem to be more of the Yakupov mindset, and more of an IQ problem. His AHL numbers were pretty underwhelming.

He could actually become more of a bust than Yakupov, still very early, but the early signs are not good. There would be no way he would be selected 3rd overall with his current season.

Oilers radio guys on TSN 1260 suggesting Puljujarvi's easily one of Finlands top players but that Finland is sitting him so they can get a better idea of what their non-NHL Olympic roster looks like

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Yeah, but Leon Draisaitl's actual agent won't be operating from the position of "Lets do whatever is worst for the Oilers" like you would be.

That's something you have to take into account.

Leon's agent will be operating from the perspective of "let's get Leon as much money as possible". If you think that is what is "whatever is worst for the Oilers" that is fine, but I don't know of any player of any stature who has taken the fabled "hometown discount".

If I am Leon's agent, that is his market value. Any pipe dream of getting a PPG, 6'2 220 lbs center for much less than that is fantasy in my opinion. Anything longer than 6 years and my comparable would be Tarasenko, who signed a couple years ago for 7.5 million a year. Given he is a center, I would say he is worth a little more than Tarasenko.

Tarasenko took 10.5 percent of the value of the cap when he signed. A similar deal for Leon (assuming a 76 million dollar cap) would give Leon 8 million a year. If he gets a bit more for being a center, having better numbers than Tarasenko in his 2nd year and his 3rd year, that number inches closer to 8.5 million a year in my opinion over 8 years.

But maybe his agent will think about what is best for the Oilers and put what is best for Leon on the backburner.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Why wouldn't he? Unless Leon has told his agent I want to take a discount to remain with this team, the agents job is to get the most amount of money possible. Edmonton can either pay it now or roll the dice on a game they most likely don't want to play.

Probably the same reason guys like Tarasenko, Monahan, Kucherov, and Gaudreau didn't hold out for $8 or $9 million per year.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Probably the same reason guys like Tarasenko, Monahan, Kucherov, and Gaudreau didn't hold out for $8 or $9 million per year.

They're not stuck playing in Edmonton?

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

They're not stuck playing in Edmonton?

Sweatpants! Amirite?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Sweatpants! Amirite?

Only with the dress shoes.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Probably the same reason guys like Tarasenko, Monahan, Kucherov, and Gaudreau didn't hold out for $8 or $9 million per year.

Tarasenko got the equivalent as a cap%. Gaudreau had one less card to play. Monahan's numbers weren't quite as good, nor were Kucherov's.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tarasenko got the equivalent as a cap%. Gaudreau had one less card to play. Monahan's numbers weren't quite as good, nor were Kucherov's.

Monahan's numbers weren't as good as who's?

Draisaitl will probably get something similar to Monahan's deal.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Monahan's numbers weren't as good as who's?

Draisaitl will probably get something similar to Monahan's deal.

It's not like it's a secret that contracts are based far heavier on the latest season. Draisaitl just put up 77 points, Monahan's never been close to that. You can factor in the McDavid factor, but it's not like it was unfair to say that Monahan's numbers weren't quite as good as Draisaitl's this year.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

It's not like it's a secret that contracts are based far heavier on the latest season. Draisaitl just put up 77 points, Monahan's never been close to that. You can factor in the McDavid factor, but it's not like it was unfair to say that Monahan's numbers weren't quite as good as Draisaitl's this year.

I said similar to Monahan, I didn't say the same deal.

7 million a year would be similar, 8 would not be.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tarasenko got the equivalent as a cap%. Gaudreau had one less card to play. Monahan's numbers weren't quite as good, nor were Kucherov's.

Tarasenko's cap % is 10.27.

That would put his contract at $7.8 million X 8 years using a projected $76 million as next year's cap.

That's pretty much the outer limit on contracts. I don't see $9 million over 8 as realistic.

$7.5 million would be my guess at what it ends up at.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Tarasenko's cap % is 10.27.

That would put his contract at $7.8 million X 8 years using a projected $76 million as next year's cap.

That's pretty much the outer limit on contracts. I don't see $9 million over 8 as realistic.

$7.5 million would be my guess at what it ends up at.

Tarasenko's cap percentage was 10.5 percent when he signed. That is the comparable, what it was in relation to a 71.4 million dollar cap, not a 76 million dollar cap.

Your number would be a good barometer for a 6 year deal for Leon, as that is what Tarasenko has left on his deal, if you were doing apples to apples.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Tarasenko's cap hit was 10.5%, closer to 8M in today's cap. Not significant different.

But Draisaitl has 5 years remaining as an RFA while Tarasenko only had 4, so that's the bigger difference.

In any case, the conversation was what Draisaitl's agent would be asking for to sign before free agency, not what would eventually be signed.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Tarasenko's cap percentage was 10.5 percent when he signed. That is the comparable, what it was in relation to a 71.4 million dollar cap, not a 76 million dollar cap.

Your number would be a good barometer for a 6 year deal for Leon, as that is what Tarasenko has left on his deal, if you were doing apples to apples.

Yeah, I was using the cap hit percentage number from capfriendly which turned out to be wrong.

I still don't see how that entitles Draisaitl to 11.8% of the cap that a $9 million dollar cap hit represents.

I'll be shocked if that happens.

[wired]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Sweatpants! Amirite?

I did get my first pair of sweatpants after I moved back to Edmonton.....comfy.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Weitz

There won't be one.

If guys like Lindholm and Rakell and Kucherov last summer on teams with no cap space are not getting offer sheeted than guys on teams with lots of cap space won't get offer sheeted.

Chia said in his presser yesterday when asked about it that sure its a concern but we have a ton of cap space so all you would be doing is driving up the market and making your own players more expensive.

Hell Monahan didn't get an offer sheet and he scored a ton of goals on his ELC.

I would contend that Draisaitl could be one of the rare exceptions to receive an offer sheet. The following factors make him uniquely attractive:
-Unreal final series (recency effect)
-Showed he can do it without Macdavid (drives play offensively)
-Showed he was the best forward on his team for the duration of the playoffs
-Showed consistency from The first game (world cup) to last game
-Unique blend of size, speed, puck control, hands, etc.
-People may see him as a future getzlaf type

Teams might think he's worth 9. They also may also think he is a final piece. Driving the market up only has relevance if you have a similar player that is due a contract. If a team signs Draisaitl for 9, Bennett doesn't make any more money this year.

Call me crazy, but offer sheets do happen and I think that Draisaitl (and Macdavid for that matter) are the ones that rare exceptions to the general no offer sheet rule.

[Enoch Root]

And a couple more factors:

1) Lowe's history with offer sheets (and GMs have very long memories)

2) Vast speculation that Chiarelli was going to offer sheet Hamilton, which led to the trade.

If there is s a team in the league that is most likely to be the victim of an offer sheeting, it is the Oilers.

And Draisaitl is a great candidate

[868904]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And a couple more factors:

1) Lowe's history with offer sheets (and GMs have very long memories)

2) Vast speculation that Chiarelli was going to offer sheet Hamilton, which led to the trade.

If there is s a team in the league that is most likely to be the victim of an offer sheeting, it is the Oilers.

And Draisaitl is a great candidate

Hmmm who have the Oilers offer sheeted and pissed off?

Dustin Penner and Brian Burke.

I would love to see the Flames do it. It is the Battle of Alberta afterall, Flames should be doing everything they can to screw them.