Alberta Politics Thread v2

[powderjunkie]

One more thought: it seems to me that Jason Kenney brings the worst qualities of both Jim Prentice (elite federal politician trying to rebuild his rep in the little league) and Brian Jean (failure to control the wackos), without any of the good qualities they had (pragmatic, genuine human-beings that you could respect, even if disagreed with them).

I'm not sure it will be enough to sway many 'wild-rose' voters (lost cause from an NDP standpoint anyways), but it might be enough to keep some more centrist folks home, or tossing votes to the AP.


Scenario: UCP 41 seats, NDP 38 seats, AP 8 seats. I know coalition is a dirty word in Canada (IMO we need to get back to some minority gov'ts working through compromise), but who would the AP rather partner with?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Unfilled ridings:

Airdrie-East - newly aligned riding - Wild Rose Angela Pitt is the incumbent, though NDP was competitive
Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock - newly aligned riding - Wild Rose van Dijken is incumbent running again, though NDP was pretty competitive
Calgary South East - NDP narrowly lost with 31.2% to PC Rick Fraser (32.5%), who is now running for Alberta Party. WR+PC = 61.7%
Edmonton Strathcona - Rachel Notley...apparently they just haven't had the meeting yet
Grande Prairie-Wapiti - NDP got 29% last time; no previous candidates currently running, including PC incumbent Wayne Drysdale. Historically very conservative, though.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills - NDP 17%
Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright - NDP 19%
West Yellowhead - NDP 39% - Rosendahl decided on March 3 to not run...mostly conservative history, but did go NDP in '89 and Liberal in '93

So it's really 7 ridings if we exclude Notley, with Rosendahl's riding being the only current NDP seat, though an uphill slog to retain against any united conservative party. 5 are guaranteed NDP losses, the other 2 are only very likely losses.


It is really interesting to note that all 21 ridings in/around Edmonton (per Wikipedia's classification) went over 50% NDP (13 over 60%, and well over in many cases).

Joe Ceci Calgary Fort - 49.8%
Shannon Phillips Lethbridge West - 59.3%
Quite a few others across the province over 40%, but only a few are close to 50.

It is conceivable that NDP will sweep Edmonton again, and win almost nowhere else. I hope that enough other Albertans will realize that the province did not actually fall apart over these past 4 years, though.

Maybe but quite unlikely.

A poll released recently by Lethbridge College shows that provincewide, the United Conservative Party is expected to garner 57.8 per cent of the vote — a majority government — while the Alberta New Democratic Party lags far behind at 23.2 per cent, the Alberta Party is at seven per cent, the Alberta Liberal Party is at 5.1 per cent and the Freedom Conservative Party has 2.8 per cent support. Other parties or candidates have 4.1 per cent of intended voter support.

The numbers are even more striking when you consider that the UCP leads the NDP in every region of the province — including Edmonton, where NDP support is the highest.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...berta-election

[Dion]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Maybe but quite unlikely.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...berta-election

To be fair, if we were to trust polls, Danielle Smith would have been the Premier of Alberta back in 2011. Things could and can go wrong before voters go to the polls.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Dion

To be fair, if we were to trust polls, Danielle Smith would have been the Premier of Alberta back in 2011. Things could and can go wrong before voters go to the polls.

Oh for sure things can change...but this is a 35 point lead. Using voter turnout from last election, thats over 500,000 people.

It would take something catastrophic to see enough voter intention shift to make a difference in which party forms government next.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Oh for sure things can change...but this is a 35 point lead. Using voter turnout from last election, thats over 500,000 people.

It would take something catastrophic to see enough voter intention shift to make a difference in which party forms government next.

The NDP went through a 22 point swing from Feb 2015 to the election. Without vote splitting on the conservative side that still wouldn’t have been enough, so I don’t think it will this time, but it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility to see things shift significantly.

If, and it’s a big if, the NDP wins it would be by a hair, I imagine.

[powderjunkie]

Polls are an absolute joke. They don't come anywhere close to a representative sample of the population. Popular data doesn't translate very well down to the riding level.

Until 2015, being a center to left leaning Albertan felt like an exercise of absolute futility. It's hard to forecast how many previously discouraged progressive voters could feel energized by feeling their vote might actually now matter, as well as concern for Trump/Ford style idiocy.

Whatever the outcome this spring, the greatest hope for the future is that the NDP and Liberals realize that association with their federal counterpoints is far more harmful than beneficial in Alberta. UCP has shown the roadmap for how to unite and re-brand two existing parties (and revealed a few landmines to watch out for in the process).

CAQ worked in Quebec, so in jest I suggest PAP - Progressive Alberta Party. Purple. If Notley doesn't want another go on the merry-go-round, I know a guy who looks good in Purple and will be available for a new challenge in 2021.

Based on 2015 results, a united progressive party would be very likely to hold:
21 Edmonton seats.
2 in Lethbridge
~6 Calgary seats look very likely to vote center-left

22 rural ridings are pretty close to a conservative lock

Leaving a battleground of 16 small city/rural ridings and 20 Calgary seats (UCP would likely hold the advantage in many of these, but not insurmountably)

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Polls are an absolute joke. They don't come anywhere close to a representative sample of the population. Popular data doesn't translate very well down to the riding level.

Until 2015, being a center to left leaning Albertan felt like an exercise of absolute futility. It's hard to forecast how many previously discouraged progressive voters could feel energized by feeling their vote might actually now matter, as well as concern for Trump/Ford style idiocy.

Whatever the outcome this spring, the greatest hope for the future is that the NDP and Liberals realize that association with their federal counterpoints is far more harmful than beneficial in Alberta. UCP has shown the roadmap for how to unite and re-brand two existing parties (and revealed a few landmines to watch out for in the process).

CAQ worked in Quebec, so in jest I suggest PAP - Progressive Alberta Party. Purple. If Notley doesn't want another go on the merry-go-round, I know a guy who looks good in Purple and will be available for a new challenge in 2021.

Based on 2015 results, a united progressive party would be very likely to hold:
21 Edmonton seats.
2 in Lethbridge
~6 Calgary seats look very likely to vote center-left

22 rural ridings are pretty close to a conservative lock

Leaving a battleground of 16 small city/rural ridings and 20 Calgary seats (UCP would likely hold the advantage in many of these, but not insurmountably)

I want the first bad joke.
If Nenshi was the leader and I insulted him , would that make it a PAP smear?

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I want the first bad joke.
If Nenshi was the leader and I insulted him , would that make it a PAP smear?

Somewhere, Rick Bell just got an erection thinking of all the headline puns he could make.

[troutman]

I like how every budding political scientist is throwing around "drop the writ" jargon.

[troutman]

Mary is now Ethel.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by troutman

I like how every budding political scientist is throwing around "drop the writ" jargon.

Saw an Alberta Party candidate setup at the LRT station. Everyone is in full election mode for a election that hasn't been officially called. They really do need to call it already.

[Jacks]

Election will be called on Monday from what I've been told.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Election will be called on Monday from what I've been told.

Any idea what the date will be?

Im guessing April 15th?

[Jacks]

Not sure, I think the campaigns are usually about a month no?
15th would make sense.

[Slava]

I thought they were 28-36 days or something like that?

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Election will be called on Monday from what I've been told.

She has 75 candidates to run in this election so you could be right. Plus Premier Rachel Notley’s nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona is set for Sunday, March 17.

I find it odd she would drop the writ before her throne speech on the 18th.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Dion

She has 75 candidates to run in this election so you could be right.

I find it odd she would drop the writ before her throne speech on the 18th.

So... Monday?

[Jacks]

My guess would be that they have the Throne Speech to lay out their priorities and then call the election right after.

[Ducay]

Regardless of when its called for, god, sure makes me appreciate Canadian politics. As much as we're getting as catty as the US, at least we don't prolong each election into a year-long+ process. A month-ish until an election without signs, ads, or debates yet? Amazing.

[malcolmk14]

A prediction from a reliable source says writ dropped Monday, election April 15th.