2022 NFL Playoff Thread

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I feel like the Bills -4 is more egregious for a line, the Bills dominated that second game and only lost the first one because of wind and one long Patriots TD. Feels like that should be Bills -7.

That one has moved to 4.5 at Bet 365, and the Sagarin on it was 4.74.

My original lean here was to the Bills too. But I have heard arguments for both sides. I think it's as simple as this, the Patriots are still a pretty public team and if the line was set at 7, than too many people would bet the Patriots, or start using Teasers with Bills that would bring on too much risk. So by setting the line at 4 or 4.5, it makes the teasers bad value, and brings in a bit more Bills money. Right now the money looks to be close to 50-50 which is exactly what the books want.

If anything I like the Under in that game since it's the third meeting in like 7 weeks between these teams. It's going to be very cold, they're both coached well, and they know each other extremely well. I could see this one playing out as a 20-14 type of game.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Handicappers are obviously much smarter than I am but I don't think Cinci deserves to be -5.5. Cinci is way overrated and won a weak division with a pretty easy schedule. The Raiders aren't necessarily a good team as they have lost to some pretty awful teams this year but I'd put this matchup at pretty much even.

There was not another division in football that had every team win at least 8 games.

Odd claim.

[Sylvanfan]

Another thing to consider is Futures.

A tip I heard that makes sense is that unless you want to back a team like Green Bay who's going to be a bigger favorite in their first game and a favorite all the way thru...pick your team and put moneyline bets on them. Even for a team like the Titans who have +900 or 8:1 odds..it's likely the betting market keeps undervaluing them on moneyline to make the three game parley as if not more valuable.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Bigger lines tend to scare me because of garbage/late scores. Like KC -12.5 makes all the sense in the world, but I could easily see a 34-10 game at the start of the fourth become a 34-24 final. Or the Eagles could be down 31-21 with two minutes left and kick the FG trying to get the onside kick and that covers.

[transplant99]

Bad news for the Pats

The New England Patriots will be without starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn for Saturday's AFC wild-card game against the Buffalo Bills (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET), as the team ruled him out with ankle and hip injuries.

Wynn, the blindside protector of rookie quarterback Mac Jones, had not practiced all week after leaving Sunday's regular-season finale after just nine plays. The 2018 first-round pick from Georgia has battled multiple injuries over his NFL career, but this season has been his most consistent in terms of availability.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...lls-due-injury

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Bigger lines tend to scare me because of garbage/late scores. Like KC -12.5 makes all the sense in the world, but I could easily see a 34-10 game at the start of the fourth become a 34-24 final. Or the Eagles could be down 31-21 with two minutes left and kick the FG trying to get the onside kick and that covers.

That or it's like that early season game where the Bucs kill out the last two minutes with a 7 point lead taking knees on the Eagles 10 after a 4 1/2 minute drive. It looks like a close game...but the other team never had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

[Cheese]

nm

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

That or it's like that early season game where the Bucs kill out the last two minutes with a 7 point lead taking knees on the Eagles 10 after a 4 1/2 minute drive. It looks like a close game...but the other team never had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

I recall a missed penalty on a 3rd down around mid field where the Bucs converted. If went the other way would of been Eagles ball back with 3ish minutes on the clock. I'd still call that a close game regardless of that though, anytime its a one score game and the losing team had a chance to get the ball back. But maybe thats the Eagles fan in me.

[Senator Clay Davis]

But they never had the ball with a chance to tie, were down 28-7 with 20 minutes left in the game, and were outgained yardage wise 2-1. Final score gave the appearance of a close game, but it really wasn't.

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But they never had the ball with a chance to tie, were down 28-7 with 20 minutes left in the game, and were outgained yardage wise 2-1. Final score gave the appearance of a close game, but it really wasn't.

They scored with almost 6 minutes left on the board to bring it within 6. Yes they didn't get the stop on D. But for the last 6 minutes it was a close game until the Bucs bleed out their timeouts to end the game. It's not like they got a last second TD to put it within 6 and no realistic chance to get the ball back. I still consider it a close game.

[Senator Clay Davis]

We all judge things differently. The Bucs had to actually close the game out when with 20 minutes left Gabbert time was a distinct possibility, so it got far more interesting than it should have. If the Bucs get up 28-7 again Sunday I imagine they don't take their foot off the gas this time. Eagles definitely have a chance though, but in the NFL playoffs everyone has a chance . Beauty (and beast) of NFL playoffs is there is no such thing as a series, bring your best or go home.

[Sylvanfan]

I had a long post typed out that died...The Eagles can conceivably cover, especially if the rain and wind makes for annoying conditions. The Bucs are not great on the outside runs which the Eagles are.

I still think the Bucs win the game and that I'm very confident about. I'm just not confident that they'll cover the +8.5. Again the under there has more appeal to me than anything.

[Dude Where's Makar?]

I adjusted the spreads on a few of the games for a little more security for a parlay.

Raiders +8
Patriots +7
Cardinals +6.5

Excited for these playoffs.

[Weitz]

Raiders
Bills
Chiefs
Bucs
Cowboys
Rams

Love me a good wild card parlay. All ML.

[Timbo]

Go Raiders!
also good luck to…
49ers
Bills
Steelers
Tampa
Cards

[transplant99]

A couple betting nuggets found around the interwebz


Rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 outright in the postseason since 2010 (2-4 against the spread). The past three rookie QBs to reach the playoffs went 0-3 against the spread and outright

Philadelphia is 10-1 against the spread as a postseason underdog since 2001 (6-5 outright), and it covered in five of its past six playoff games.

Dallas was 10-3 against the spread as a favorite this season, the best cover percentage in those spots in the NFL. It also went 6-3 against the spread against teams with winning records this season, best among teams playing this weekend

[Sylvanfan]

Some line movement this morning. Bengals and Raiders is up to +6 for the Bengals with a 48.5 total. Bill's up to +5 and total at 43.5.

I put a small play on the Raiders moneyline and bet under on the Bill's and Patriots.

Right now my picks today are Raiders to win and cover, still under the 48.5.

Bill's to win and cover, and under 43.5.

Good luck to everyone.

[transplant99]

The under in the Bills/Pats game seems inevitable with game time temperatures around -18C and wind chill values approaching -25.

[Sainters7]

Chiefs
Bills
Bengals
Bucs
Niners
Cards

BUF-NE, DAL-SF, LAR-AZ all could go either way, stared at all 3 of those for a while. And just to get it all in the books before any playoffs performances this weekend sway me:

Bengals over Titans
Chiefs over Bills
Packers over Niners
Bucs over Cards

Chiefs over Bengals
Packers over Bucs (I know I know..just a feeling)

Chiefs over Packers

[devo22]

Steelers get Juju Smith-Schuster back for tomorrow's game. Probably won't move the needle too much, but good to see him back.