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Old 06-14-2021, 11:06 AM   #41
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Hamilton is a pending UFA, if he negotiates and signs with another team, he's with that team.
Yes, but if he negotiates a deal with another team prior to free agency starting he has to wait for a while to sign it. He's not a UFA yet. So he can find out what other teams are offering, go back to Carolina and say, "Boston is offering me X years for Y million. Will you do better than that?" And Carolina can say yes, no, or no but we'll match their offer. Unless Hamilton wants to leave, it's in his interest to do so.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:09 AM   #42
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It would honestly be a smart signing for the Oilers. A Nurse / Hamilton pairing would be pretty good. Then Klefbom with whoever of Larsson or Barrie comes back, I guess, or Ethan Bear if neither of them do. Then you've got Broberg and Bouchard learning the ropes in limited minutes with Russell or whatever other depth veteran you might sign to be the 7th D.
Oilers are at $60M with 31 contracts signed. They need to extend or replace Smith, RNH, Barrie, Larsson, Chiasson, Kulikov, plus the other flotsam. Yamamoto is an RFS, as is Kahun. They have to think about Nurse the following year (and Bear), though they will get out of Koskinen then. They did manage to sign Russel for cheap for next year. If Klefbom is back, things get tighter.

If Hamilton is looking for $8.8M like Pietrangelo, that's basically taking up the salaries of both Barrie and Larsson this year. They'd better hope that Bouchard can take a regular shift. Funny though - Hamilton, Bouchard, Bear, Larsson, Barrie are all RD, so somethings gotta give there.

Yammy Hockey is gonna want $3M or so, I bet. and they still need a 2-3 C if RNH goes away. Also a 4C because Ennis and Turris are both UFAs. and a decent goalie will cost $4-5M.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:17 AM   #43
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I think with Dougie its just a real lack of intensity/enthusiasm that rubs some around him the wrong way.
I think it's more than that.

I watched him pitch an absolute meltdown during a Flames practice doing a bunch of individual drills. It was in a manner that if my teammate or work colleague behaved in such a manner, I wouldn't be enthusiastic to continue to play or work with them.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:23 AM   #44
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I think this is a brilliant move by Carolina. If Hamilton wants out, then they can get some assets for the trade. If he wants to stay and Carolina wants him to stay, they he and Carolina will know what he's worth in the open market. This is a true win-win for all parties involved.
The brilliant move would have been figuring this out last off season. If they lose him they aren't getting much back. Certainly not Hanifin/Lindholm on good contracts.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:24 AM   #45
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Oilers are at $60M with 31 contracts signed. They need to extend or replace Smith, RNH, Barrie, Larsson, Chiasson, Kulikov, plus the other flotsam. Yamamoto is an RFS, as is Kahun. They have to think about Nurse the following year (and Bear), though they will get out of Koskinen then. They did manage to sign Russel for cheap for next year. If Klefbom is back, things get tighter.
Turris is still signed for next year.

Basically, they have 9 forwards (counting Ryan McLeod and James Neal), 7 D with Klefbom back (counting Kris Russell and Caleb Jones), and two goalies (with Alex Stalock as the backup).

They then have just over $22 million in cap to fill those missing forward slots (including with re-signing RFAs like Kahun and Yamamoto), and then to displace the guys in brackets from the active roster.

I think it's do-able. I think Hamilton is a 7.5M guy, maybe 8. If you sign him for 8, Khaira and Kahun for, let's say, 1.5 each, Yamamoto for 3 and... say Chiasson for 1 (or whatever, some other random bottom 6 guy for 1), you've got a full roster and about $8-9 million bucks to go find another goalie, re-sign Larsson or Barrie or RNH, or sign some other free agent, or some combination. You can't do it all but you can do some of it.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:28 AM   #46
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...
But as discussed ... it's not just a Calgary and Hamilton issue ... it follows him around.
I've met Dougie once and we did have a 5-min conversation. FWIW, he DOES have a sparkle of craziness in his eye; like someone, who is always ready to prank everyone. I have a few friends like this and, personally, I love to be around them even though their pranks are over the top sometimes. But I can see how this quality could be perceived as a negative in a closed team setting, where hierarchy, rituals and togetherness are maintained, promoted and encouraged, while individuality is frowned upon and, often, rejected.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:30 AM   #47
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Hamilton is not going to the Oilers
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:36 AM   #48
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Turris is still signed for next year.

Basically, they have 9 forwards (counting Ryan McLeod and James Neal), 7 D with Klefbom back (counting Kris Russell and Caleb Jones), and two goalies (with Alex Stalock as the backup).

They then have just over $22 million in cap to fill those missing forward slots (including with re-signing RFAs like Kahun and Yamamoto), and then to displace the guys in brackets from the active roster.

I think it's do-able. I think Hamilton is a 7.5M guy, maybe 8. If you sign him for 8, Khaira and Kahun for, let's say, 1.5 each, Yamamoto for 3 and... say Chiasson for 1 (or whatever, some other random bottom 6 guy for 1), you've got a full roster and about $8-9 million bucks to go find another goalie, re-sign Larsson or Barrie or RNH, or sign some other free agent, or some combination. You can't do it all but you can do some of it.
I don't see Hamilton signing for $7.5. 8 is what Carlson got a couple years ago. So maybe. He also has to want to go there. He'd certainly pad his points but he wouldn't need to any more. I wonder what his impression of them was after playing them a lot for 3 years.

I think the key is how much they need for (a) a goalie; (b) RNH or a replacement and (c) Yamamoto. They tend to overpay for guys like the latter so we'll see.

There's no way they re-sign Barrie if Hamilton is there. They pretty much have to go with Larsson or someone like him (a LD version of Larsson to play with Bear would probably be the way to go).
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:40 AM   #49
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Yeah I don't see Hamilton in Edmonton at all. They would need to overpay, and they don't have the space to be able to do that.

L.A. is the one that I find interesting. They have a ton of up and coming forward prospects but not a lot on defense. Hamilton could be a nice add to them, since he should be good for long enough to be effective as the young core grows.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:42 AM   #50
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You missed a 0.
Zack Kassian outbound for negotiating rights?
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:42 AM   #51
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I would think his number would be at least $8M. It is interesting though, if the Canes/Hamilton manage to create a sign and trade, it could go down something like this:

Team X offers 7 years, $8.5 = $60mm
Canes compare that against what they can offer: 8 years, $7.5 = $60mm

That would be pretty good value for the Canes, but would Dougie prefer the 7 year deal? If 8 years works for Dougie, but the Canes still pass, what is the compensation for the sign and trade? Obviously they can tweak the numbers, but the walk-away number will be interesting.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:44 AM   #52
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I don't see Hamilton signing for $7.5. 8 is what Carlson got a couple years ago. So maybe. He also has to want to go there. He'd certainly pad his points but he wouldn't need to any more. I wonder what his impression of them was after playing them a lot for 3 years.

I think the key is how much they need for (a) a goalie; (b) RNH or a replacement and (c) Yamamoto. They tend to overpay for guys like the latter so we'll see.

There's no way they re-sign Barrie if Hamilton is there. They pretty much have to go with Larsson or someone like him (a LD version of Larsson to play with Bear would probably be the way to go).
You also have to factor in age of player when they resigned. Pietrangelo was 30 signing to 37. More declined years lowers cap hit. Dougie is 28 in a few days signing to 35. I bet if oilers sign him it $8.5 to $9 mil. I doubt $7.5 is an option

If you give dougie $9 might as well give nurse $9 mil too.

That is hard to manage next summer for them unless they prefer dougie over nurse
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:46 AM   #53
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Those aren't the same situations. Aho was signed to an offer sheet as an RFA so the Canes would have a chance to match it no matter who he signed with. Hamilton is a pending UFA, if he negotiates and signs with another team, he's with that team.
Yes, I agree. I don’t think I said they were the same.

I think the Canes want him back and that they know that Dougie likely wants to be back. I also think the Canes aren’t going to overpay to prevent him from going “to market”, so better from their perspective to be upfront and let him go negotiate. What I could see happen is that Dougie gets an offer, and goes back to the Canes to see if they will match. If it’s too high, they don’t. If it’s reasonable, maybe they up their offer and then let Dougie decide. I could even see them offering a bit less in hopes that Dougie gives a bit of a hometown discount, and to leave more cap space to sign someone else.

And as others have said, it’s risky but potentially a win-win situation. But it only works if the player has expressed a desire to return and you think that is legitimate. For instance, I don’t think the same strategy works with someone like Barrie. The trade route is also an interesting option, if the opportunity presents itself.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:48 AM   #54
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^ I highly doubt that a team trades negotiating rights when they intend to re-sign the player

Seems like a good way to get on the wrong side of the GM community
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:50 AM   #55
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I would think his number would be at least $8M. It is interesting though, if the Canes/Hamilton manage to create a sign and trade, it could go down something like this:

Team X offers 7 years, $8.5 = $60mm
Canes compare that against what they can offer: 8 years, $7.5 = $60mm

That would be pretty good value for the Canes, but would Dougie prefer the 7 year deal? If 8 years works for Dougie, but the Canes still pass, what is the compensation for the sign and trade? Obviously they can tweak the numbers, but the walk-away number will be interesting.
Well, financially, the X deal is better. Canes would have to say 8x$8M = $64, but even then you are only giving Hamilton assurance of $4M over time, whereas a smart investor can probably make a lot of that up by takling the larger annual salary and investing it. Plus, he probably could believe he could make some back in the 8th year anyway on a short term deal.

What the Canes are hoping is the free market tells Hamilton he's only worth close to what the Canes are willing to pay. Or that they can get something out of a sign and trade if another team is willing to pay for the 8th year.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:52 AM   #56
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Nah, Hamilton will sacrifice the zero for the all the Cups.
Maybe for all of McDavid's cups.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:53 AM   #57
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Yeah my gut feeling here is that the Canes don't want to pay Dougie much more than $7M, and they are hoping the market is a bit softer than he expects it to be.

He's a great player but there does seem to be a disconnect between his advanced stats and maybe how people around the league see him.

I posted this in another thread.

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There does seem to be a disconnect between the advanced metrics on Hamilton, and even what his coaches seem to think.

I've brought this up before but I'm not even sure Carolina's coaches think that Hamilton is their best d-man.

In the regular season Slavin and Pesce both play more minutes per game than Hamilton, and if you look at 5v5 minutes you can add Skjei to that list as well.

He gets fat on PP ice time playing over 3 mintues a game on the PP, but the coaching staff do not play him on the PK pretty much at all.

Great advanced stats. Drives play offensively for sure. But I think it's tough to say you're a Norris level, elite #1 d-man when you're 3rd on your own team in minutes played, you might not even be the best d-man on your team (That's Slavin IMO), and your coaches don't play you on the PK at all.

Will be interesting to see what happens with him in Carolina because if they walk away / don't re-sign him then that could be the third team to kind of move away from Dougie in his 9 year career.
My gut feeling is Carolina would have a hard time paying $8M+ for a guy that they play the third most minutes on the team. They seem to trust Slavin and Pesce a lot more at 5v5 and on the PK, and really just feed Dougie the PP minutes.
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Old 06-14-2021, 11:55 AM   #58
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Well, financially, the X deal is better. Canes would have to say 8x$8M = $64, but even then you are only giving Hamilton assurance of $4M over time, whereas a smart investor can probably make a lot of that up by takling the larger annual salary and investing it. Plus, he probably could believe he could make some back in the 8th year anyway on a short term deal.

What the Canes are hoping is the free market tells Hamilton he's only worth close to what the Canes are willing to pay. Or that they can get something out of a sign and trade if another team is willing to pay for the 8th year.
Totally agree, but I am struggling what they can get out of a sign and trade. It just seems to me he is either satisfied with the Canes offer, or he simply signs elsewhere (which I would think would be north of $8/year).
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Old 06-14-2021, 12:00 PM   #59
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Come home Dougie. You know you have unfinished business here with the Flames!
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Old 06-14-2021, 12:04 PM   #60
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Totally agree, but I am struggling what they can get out of a sign and trade. It just seems to me he is either satisfied with the Canes offer, or he simply signs elsewhere (which I would think would be north of $8/year).
All they can offer is they 8th year, so basically similar to trading signing rights. I suppose if he says to another team "I like your $8M but I need 8 years" then they have to go to Carolina and say they will offer some sort of picks for Carolina to sign him and trade him to them.

Frankly, I'm not sure why they don't just pay him his money. If they're are worried about Necas and Svechnikov it seems a bit overblown to me. Their other D are all on good contracts, their top forwards are not super expensive, their goalie contracts are going to be sorted assuming they sign Ned to a decent contract and go with a cheap backup.
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