Playoff Probabilities

[hwy19man]

Originally Posted by Tsawwassen

The Flames are up to 30.4% on the 50/50 and 28.9% on the weighted chart.

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I see 22.2% on the weighted?

I think the number Tsawwassen got is from here, http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Robbob

The Flames next 7 games (SJ, @LV, @ARZ, ANA, @SJ, @LA, COL) and 5 are teams directly we are chasing. Now would be a good time to get on a streak.

The Flames play Columbus not Colorado which hurts a bit because they will be playing desperate hockey too but beating them won't help as much

Need 9 points at least in these 7 games and 4 have to come from Anaheim and LA. 10 or more points would be way better though

I guess the positive here if the Flames make it they will be playing good playoff hockey for a month before the playoffs start

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

The Flames play Columbus not Colorado which hurts a bit because they will be playing desperate hockey too but beating them won't help as much

Need 9 points at least in these 7 games and 4 have to come from Anaheim and LA. 10 or more points would be way better though

I guess the positive here if the Flames make it they will be playing good playoff hockey for a month before the playoffs start

You are right. Don't know where I Colorado. Probably wishful thinking.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Need 9 points at least in these 7 games and 4 have to come from Anaheim and LA. 10 or more points would be way better though

9 points in 7 games (4-2-1) basically means Calgary needs to go 3-0-1 in its last 4 games to get to 96 points. That's not much room for error.

Although getting 4 vs. LA and ANA would be huge though.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by hwy19man

I think the number Tsawwassen got is from here, http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Weighted from that site is 22%.

[Brick]

22.9%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[442scotty]

No margin for error. They have to run the table

[nfotiu]

We dropped out of a spot with Smith out, so it's reasonable to think we have a chance to climb back in it with him back and playing well.

20% is still realistic. Once you get into single digits, then you have to question whether you are in denial if you still have hope. A regulation loss tonight looks like it will knock us down into that single digit territory, so pretty much a must win now.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

We dropped out of a spot with Smith out, so it's reasonable to think we have a chance to climb back in it with him back and playing well.

20% is still realistic. Once you get into single digits, then you have to question whether you are in denial if you still have hope. A regulation loss tonight looks like it will knock us down into that single digit territory, so pretty much a must win now.

20% odds is realistic. Realistic that you are probably going to miss the playoffs. If you get a diagnosis from your doctor that you have a 20% chance to live you are probably getting your will in order and planning your funeral. They can make it but they probably can't afford to lose more than two or three at the very most games in regulation over the last eleven games.

[nfotiu]

20% sure seems like a high percentage when I"m hoping someone doesn't hit a flush draw!

[The Cobra]

20% is better than 0%.

I'm not sure why anyone has to lose hope when they still have a 1/5 chance of making the playoffs.

It's likely a defense mechanism, so when Calgary actually gets eliminated, many will say "I knew that would occur".

No one is suggesting it is likely, but 20% is 20%.

I know it's likely that Calgary will get eliminated, but that doesn't stop me from hoping they don't.

[Classic_Sniper]

The path of least resistance will be to pass the Ducks, Stars and Blues for a Wildcard position. Everyone else is playing so well, I just can't see them dropping off.

Stars are still on their road trip, Ben Bishop is still day to day, we play the Ducks in a head to head that we have to win and the Blues are still a little hit and miss.


EDIT: Flames own the tie-breaker on the Ducks, that's a key because we just need to tie them in points to pass them.

[hwy19man]

The Wild should be included in your list Classic Sniper. Their schedule is not easy.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by hwy19man

The Wild should be included in your list Classic Sniper. Their schedule is not easy.

Definitely not easy. But to get to 95, all they have to do is go 5-7. They also own the tie breaker, not sure I see them faltering that much.

[troutman]

No playoffs, no cry.

[Tsawwassen]

Yikes, the Flames chances went down 9.5%/10.5% to 8.8 (weighted)
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary.html

The 50/50 is 14.2%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary2.html

[Brick]

10.4%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[Gaskal]

[Tsawwassen]

The Flames chances went down 5.6% again to 3.5% (weighted)
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary.html

The 50/50 went down 8.3% to 5.9%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary2.html

[Monahammer]

Playoff chances on life support.