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Old 11-03-2020, 06:57 AM   #8941
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1323486951702368256
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Settle down there, Temple Grandin.

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Old 11-03-2020, 07:02 AM   #8942
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On today's episode of "God Bless America"...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1323507660575170560
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:09 AM   #8943
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1323609721631395844
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:25 AM   #8944
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Most of the polls in 2016 were within the margin of error. Certain media companies interpreted them as having no margin of error and put ridiculous graphics that had Clinton at 99% ect.
That wasn't actually the problem. The problem was the assumption that polling errors are independent. I.e., "there's a 30% chance that each of these three polls are wrong. Therefore, theres a 30% x 30% x 30% chance that all three are wrong, which is very unlikely". That's not how polling errors work. Sure, there's a 30% chance that each is "wrong" (i.e. off by a few points), but if it turns out that the 30% chance materializes in the case of poll "A", the chances of polls "B" and "C" being wrong in a similar fashion is no longer 30%, but much higher.
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Old 11-03-2020, 08:00 AM   #8945
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Deutsche bank is sick of all of the negative publicity of being associated with Trump, expects his election loss, and plans to sever all ties at that point. The bank is considering how to deal with the huge problem of Trumps debt and have looked into selling the debt to others, but doubts there will be takers. Apparently they may proceed with asset seizure post election if he cannot pay back his debts. Trump personally guaranteed all of his loans lol. Add this to his upcoming pile of criminal and financial problems.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...source=twitter
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Old 11-03-2020, 08:24 AM   #8946
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It's a possibility. Depends how many quiet voters there are, the people that dont answer polls honestly.

Think small, not the big picture. Think of your office, how would people react if a co worker said they were prolife? Or a college student who wants their college open again. If the situation is toxic enough, there could be many shy Trump voters. If it's not then Biden gets to 350.
There is no evidence of a shy voter affect.

Mistakes in polling tend to be assuming a demographic group is uniform and only polling a subset of it and the assumption of uniformity not being true.

The big one last time was whites with college degrees vs whites without college degrees were weighted as whites and it turned out that whites with college degrees were easier to get a hold of than without and whites without supported trump more than whites with and there was the polling error.

It wasn’t shy trump voters not answering polls it was trump voters not being asked.

So things like under sampling Cubans-Americans in Florida or Native white Floridians vs New York white retirees. It won’t be shy Trump voters even if Trump wins.

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Old 11-03-2020, 09:13 AM   #8947
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It's a possibility. Depends how many quiet voters there are, the people that dont answer polls honestly.

Think small, not the big picture. Think of your office, how would people react if a co worker said they were prolife? Or a college student who wants their college open again. If the situation is toxic enough, there could be many shy Trump voters. If it's not then Biden gets to 350.
My University Son is at home all year because of COVID. Most people I know don’t openly talk about abortions all Willy Nilly or spout their ideologies. How you think they’re close for comparison blows my mind.

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Old 11-03-2020, 09:52 AM   #8948
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Deutsche bank is sick of all of the negative publicity of being associated with Trump, expects his election loss, and plans to sever all ties at that point. The bank is considering how to deal with the huge problem of Trumps debt and have looked into selling the debt to others, but doubts there will be takers. Apparently they may proceed with asset seizure post election if he cannot pay back his debts. Trump personally guaranteed all of his loans lol. Add this to his upcoming pile of criminal and financial problems.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...source=twitter
Jeff Bezos should buy the debt. That would be ####ing awesome!
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Old 11-03-2020, 10:03 AM   #8949
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Jeff Bezos should buy the debt. That would be ####ing awesome!
Imagine having so much money you could take the loss, just to troll a former president.
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Old 11-03-2020, 10:05 AM   #8950
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The Amazon sign on Trump tower in NY? Hahahaha.
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Old 11-03-2020, 10:06 AM   #8951
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Even worse? The Washington Post NY office. The giant orange pumpkin man would explode. It would be glorious.
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Old 11-03-2020, 10:21 AM   #8952
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As we now have 3 threads on the US election going I think I will lock this one and people can move over to the GT thread.
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Old 11-03-2020, 06:19 PM   #8953
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