Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That doesn't follow. Established NHL goalies are often going for 2nd-round picks or less. Just because a goaltending prospect wouldn't fetch that on the trade market doesn't mean he has no upside.

But here's an idea. Since we're judging players entirely by what draft picks we could get for them in trades, why don't we trade the entire team for picks every season? We'd have the worst club in the history of the league, year after year, but hey, maybe one day we would have the entire draft all to ourselves. Apparently that's the object of running a hockey team.

That was not what I said. I was just pointing out that placing Gillies in the "goaltenders with potential phase" is a real stretch (unless Bingo meant Mason MacDonald). If Gillies has potential, I would have thrown Mason in as well for a round number of 4 with potential.

But I do think a bubble playoff team with sparse prospect depth trading the most picks of any team in the league is a perplexing strategy. Always have, others are more comfortable with our depth

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Why would Fox get traded for picks? What logic is there to that? Fox seems to be a solid pick... so trade him for a slightly younger pick with even less certainty?

There have been rumours that Treliving is interested in getting a pick back, presumably a 1st or 2nd. If that's the case, you have to look at what assets the Flames have that could realistically be offered for a pick in that range.

The Flames depth is in their d prospects. Fox is a natural choice because A) there's uncertainty around his decision to sign with the Flames, and B) there are teams in the East where he would presumably be more likely to sign. In other words, he may be worth more to the Rangers of Sabres than he is to the Flames. And his value is probably in the late-1st range.

If you don't think the Flames are genuinely interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd round pick, then there's no need to be concerned. If you do think they're interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd, then I don't see why Fox is out of the question. Maybe you have better candidates to give up in such a deal?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I sort of agree, but Tre is in a quiet period so maybe now CP going through the exercise is most helpful for him timewise.

I doubt that anything CP goes through makes any difference to him one way or the other.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

That was not what I said.

Here is what you said:

if they have upside we should trade Gillies for a 2nd rounder. We would be lucky to get a 4th for Gillies.

Which was a complete non sequitur, for the reasons I pointed out. Even the best goaltending prospects have very little value on the trade market. Most established goalies haven't got very much. No matter how good a prospect Gillies is, he's not going to fetch a 2nd, and it is silly to point to that fact as evidence that he's not a good prospect.

I was just pointing out that placing Gillies in the "goaltenders with potential phase" is a real stretch (unless Bingo meant Mason MacDonald).

Why? He showed during the season that he has the tools to perform at least as an NHL backup, and his deficiencies look like the sort that can be improved with coaching and experience.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I doubt that anything CP goes through makes any difference to him one way or the other.

I was dead serious.

[Flash Walken]

The only way to save face at the draft for the organization might be to turn the "no picks until the 4th round" story on it's head and make a huge splash for a top 10 pick.

Would not surprise me at all if the Flames mortgaged a little bit of the now to avoid the embarrassment of watching teams walk up to the podium multiple times before the Flames get up from their seats.

If Hamilton is dealt it's probably on the draft floor for a team picking higher than #15.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There have been rumours that Treliving is interested in getting a pick back, presumably a 1st or 2nd. If that's the case, you have to look at what assets the Flames have that could realistically be offered for a pick in that range.



The Flames depth is in their d prospects. Fox is a natural choice because A) there's uncertainty around his decision to sign with the Flames, and B) there are teams in the East where he would presumably be more likely to sign. In other words, he may be worth more to the Rangers of Sabres than he is to the Flames. And his value is probably in the late-1st range.



If you don't think the Flames are genuinely interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd round pick, then there's no need to be concerned. If you do think they're interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd, then I don't see why Fox is out of the question. Maybe you have better candidates to give up in such a deal?

Other than the concern of Fox not signing, I don’t see the logic of trading a good young player for a lottery ticket where the hope is to get a good young player. I’d think an older roster player for picks makes more sense.


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[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Other than the concern of Fox not signing, I don’t see the logic of trading a good young player for a lottery ticket where the hope is to get a good young player. I’d think an older roster player for picks makes more sense.

Which older roster player do you think would return, and would you be willing to move for, a 1st or 2nd

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The only way to save face at the draft for the organization might be to turn the "no picks until the 4th round" story on it's head and make a huge splash for a top 10 pick.

Would not surprise me at all if the Flames mortgaged a little bit of the now to avoid the embarrassment of watching teams walk up to the podium multiple times before the Flames get up from their seats.

If Hamilton is dealt it's probably on the draft floor for a team picking higher than #15.

Save face?

That's a pretty dramatic take of the coming events. The Flames don't need to do anything but assess every opportunity and make the best call possible in helping the team both next season and into the future.

They still have Hamonic. They still have Smith. The team is a good young hockey team coming off an odd season.

Hopefully Treliving is a lot less persnickety than yourself in preparing for the late June draft.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The only way to save face at the draft for the organization might be to turn the "no picks until the 4th round" story on it's head and make a huge splash for a top 10 pick.

Would not surprise me at all if the Flames mortgaged a little bit of the now to avoid the embarrassment of watching teams walk up to the podium multiple times before the Flames get up from their seats.

If Hamilton is dealt it's probably on the draft floor for a team picking higher than #15.

Maybe that was always the plan? I guess you haven’t “lost” the picks until the draft is over.

But I wouldn’t enjoy seeing Hamilton plus essentially traded for Hamonic.

I agree though that we likely see Flames make a splash to get into top 10, or see a couple of picks acquired in 2nd or 3rd. Not about saving face, but you can’t just throw an entire draft year in the trash.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Which older roster player do you think would return, and would you be willing to move for, a 1st or 2nd

No one. I don’t think we need one that desperately. Maybe a second rounder as part of a return with a roster player.


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[VilleN]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Which older roster player do you think would return, and would you be willing to move for, a 1st or 2nd

Dbl post

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There have been rumours that Treliving is interested in getting a pick back, presumably a 1st or 2nd. If that's the case, you have to look at what assets the Flames have that could realistically be offered for a pick in that range.

The Flames depth is in their d prospects. Fox is a natural choice because A) there's uncertainty around his decision to sign with the Flames, and B) there are teams in the East where he would presumably be more likely to sign. In other words, he may be worth more to the Rangers of Sabres than he is to the Flames. And his value is probably in the late-1st range.

If you don't think the Flames are genuinely interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd round pick, then there's no need to be concerned. If you do think they're interested in trading for a 1st or 2nd, then I don't see why Fox is out of the question. Maybe you have better candidates to give up in such a deal?

Regarding Fox; the Flames may have to trade him. If I'm Fox, his family, or his agent the first question I have for the Flames is : 'where's my spot on the roster?'. Because right now, it looks like he would be headed to the Heat.

As it stands the Flames have Hamilton, Hamonic, Stone,& Anderson who Fox has to compete with for a spot. I would bet, Fox is going to want to understand what the plan is. Unlikely he signs in Calgary so he can be hurried in Stockton for 1-2 years.

Would you package him with Jankowski for RoR? maybe get a pick as well if you can.

Or maybe it's Anderson & Jankowski. Then you have the year to figure out what to do with Stone to create room for Fox.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Regarding Fox; the Flames may have to trade him. If I'm Fox, his family, or his agent the first question I have for the Flames is : 'where's my spot on the roster?'. Because right now, it looks like he would be headed to the Heat.

As it stands the Flames have Hamilton, Hamonic, Stone,&Anderson who Fox has to compete with for a spot. I would bet, Fox is going to want to understand what the plan is. Unlikely he signs in Calgary so he can be hurried in Stockton for 1-2 years.

Would you package him with Jankowski for RoR? maybe get a pick as well if you can.

Or maybe it's Anderson & Jankowski. Then you have the year to figure out what to do with Stone to create room for Fox.

Why not figure out what to do with stone now and not trade off two of our best young players/prospects? Seriously, team control is a terrible thing to waste when you are a smaller market Canadian team that has a terrible track record of signing UFAs

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I agree though that we likely see Flames make a splash to get into top 10, or see a couple of picks acquired in 2nd or 3rd. Not about saving face, but you can’t just throw an entire draft year in the trash.

If they were not willing to do that than why did they make the Smith and Hamonic deals?

I'm not exactly excited about having next to no picks in this and next year's draft. But to change gears now and trade established roster player's for picks would really seem to signal a team with no real plan or direction.

If anything the moves this summer have to make an impact on the team this season.

Unless they decide to do a substantial tear down and start moving multiple established NHL players for picks. I don't see why they would be trying to trade for a top 10 pick or picks in the first three rounds this year.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If they were not willing to do that than why did they make the Smith and Hamonic deals?

I'm not exactly excited about having next to no picks in this and next year's draft. But to change gears now and trade established roster player's for picks would really seem to signal a team with no real plan or direction.

If anything the moves this summer have to make an impact on the team this season.

Unless they decide to do a substantial tear down and start moving multiple established NHL players for picks. I don't see why they would be trying to trade for a top 10 pick or picks in the first three rounds this year.

Well maybe the plan was to buy another year before young defensemen were ready to play in the big club. So for example, you trade Brodie for the Hamonic return this summer. You essentially got a year of Hamonic and Brodie together at no cost.

IMO this team doesn't need to be married to their assets at the big league level. Trade a defenseman and promote a prospect, or value FA signing, and you might not see much of a difference in results.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Two Fivenagame

great thread

Wow, looks like I missed some intense modern family episodes.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If they were not willing to do that than why did they make the Smith and Hamonic deals?

I'm not exactly excited about having next to no picks in this and next year's draft. But to change gears now and trade established roster player's for picks would really seem to signal a team with no real plan or direction.

If anything the moves this summer have to make an impact on the team this season.

Unless they decide to do a substantial tear down and start moving multiple established NHL players for picks. I don't see why they would be trying to trade for a top 10 pick or picks in the first three rounds this year.

it's tough to make one for one trades work, so if there are roster players in the mix to change the makeup of the team or get better or leverage defensive prospects depth, whatever, it's likely that the return will have to include picks.

Teams more likely to move picks are teams that have multiple picks, see bingos argument for why the flames moved so many: they had them to move.

So if what has been reported from the GM meetings is true (Tre looking for a 1st rounder) and if what has been reported about the team looking to change the makeup (with the implication towards Hamilton), and if Hamilton carries as much league wide value as posters in CP seem to believe he does, it is difficult to put together a trade scenario that doesn't include a high value 1st coming back to the flames.

Mixed with the professional embarrassment of missing the playoffs and not picking until round 4 (and I can attest to this being a real thing), I think it is extremely unlikely that the flames will have stood Pat on their draft pick situation by the end of the draft.

[EldrickOnIce]

Interesting Bennett article (by Kent Wilson) in the Athletic today comparing Bennett to the other 82 players in the NHL who played 200+ games before turning 22, since 2005.

The good news for Bennett optimists is that, yes, players this age are more likely to improve than to decline. At least 15 of the players in question saw a decent bump, while only about five saw any sort of notable decline.

But in the end

Firstly, the idea that Bennett is still very young and has a lot of room to improve is probably overblown. While improvement is more likely than decline, almost none of the similar players since 2005 took really substantial steps forward after the age of 21.

[CliffFletcher]

Yes, odds are Bennett gets better. But not much better.