Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

This list is quite surprising. What in the heck is that even supposed to mean? The Flames found a way to shelter both guys? They are the best defensive team in the league?

The Flames found some teams in the league that are easier to play against than all of the other teams have to face?

Logic check fails. I am throwing out the bath water, and not even checking for the baby.

I think it means that Smith played worse than expected, giving up 3.72 points over his 34 starts compared to expected, Rittich played better than expected, gaining 6.89 points more than expected, over his 38 starts.
It also suggests, sensibly, that Tampa gained 15.24 more points when Vasilevsky started than expected.

What all of these suggest is that goalies on good teams, generally, gain that team more points than expected going in, because the team is good, and the fact that Smith and Rittich are over 10 points different, suggests Rittich has been that much better than Smith when comparing actual points earned vs. expected points earned.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

This list is quite surprising. What in the heck is that even supposed to mean? The Flames found a way to shelter both guys? They are the best defensive team in the league?

The Flames found some teams in the league that are easier to play against than all of the other teams have to face?

Logic check fails. I am throwing out the bath water, and not even checking for the baby.

It looks at the teams expected goals for and expected goals against in the games that we have played to see how the goalie performed vs the expected result.

Means that Flames overall are a good team that A) Is stingy defensively and B) Scores a lot of goals so the goalies have easier starts and "available" points.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

This list is quite surprising. What in the heck is that even supposed to mean? The Flames found a way to shelter both guys? They are the best defensive team in the league?

The Flames found some teams in the league that are easier to play against than all of the other teams have to face?

Logic check fails. I am throwing out the bath water, and not even checking for the baby.

Shocking.

The "logic" behind the chart is quite simple. Goalies are ranked on the basis of expected points/start which appears to very heavily factor into consideration overall team quality. That is why all six goalies from three of the top four teams in the League are ranked in the top-fifteen.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

This list is quite surprising. What in the heck is that even supposed to mean? The Flames found a way to shelter both guys? They are the best defensive team in the league?

The Flames found some teams in the league that are easier to play against than all of the other teams have to face?

Logic check fails. I am throwing out the bath water, and not even checking for the baby.

The Flames, Sharks, Bolts, Vegas, Carolina are some of the top teams for what they give up in a game, so that would suggest the goalies from those teams would have less difficulty and have a higher expected result base.

Flames
CA60 3rd
SA60 6th
SCA60 5th
HDA 60 12th

Flames Since Pen's Massacre
CA60 2nd
SA60 4th
SCA60 3rd
HDA 60 3rd

The last one the key change ... since late October, the Flames have been elite defensively in all measures.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Shocking.

The "logic" behind the chart is quite simple. Goalies are ranked on the basis of expected points/start which appears to very heavily factor into consideration overall team quality. That is why all six goalies from three of the top four teams in the League are ranked in the top-fifteen.

Right. That’s the point. It is as much as anything a list of goaltenders by quality of their team.

The Flames goalies have a high likelihood of winning because they are playing for a good team.

What is the use of the table?

(I know full well that ‘to evaluate actual Points vs expected’ is in the direction of a good answer, but it was presented simply as ‘these goalies have the easiest starts’.)

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Right. That’s the point. It is as much as anything a list of goaltenders by quality of their team.

The Flames goalies have a high likelihood of winning because they are playing for a good team.

What is the use of the table?

(I know full well that ‘to evaluate actual Points vs expected’ is in the direction of a good answer, but it was presented simply as ‘these goalies have the easiest starts’.)

Its trying to normalize the strength of the team as a variable to determine how much of a goalie's success is due to the team or due to performance. That table is just backup data for this oversized chart showing which goalies have over/under performed.

Spoiler!

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Cool. I found this too, from the same guy, which is getting interesting. He does some neat work.

What would the impact on standings be if you replaced the goalies with league average goaltending?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1106218358792511489

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1108096273335402496

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1108096273335402496

I think that is a myopically short-sighted article. Mike Smith's playoff experience may be an important resource for the Flames to draw from in order to be successful in the Spring. However, the job of playoff starter still appears to be David Rittich's to lose.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1108096273335402496

If we are going to use what happened in 2011-12 to decide our starting goalie we should have traded for Brian Elliott who had a 1.56 GAA and .940 save percentage that year.

[Bingo]

I think tonight, with the team going with Rittich, it's the best sign so far that Rittich has the job to lose for now, yeah.

Smith getting Winnipeg was something, but when you factor in back to backs and Smith being perhaps sick for the Ranger game it can be explained away.

This week no back to backs, and they seem to be using Rittich for the tougher game and the Smith for the weaker opponent, or Rittich for both.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If we are going to use what happened in 2011-12 to decide our starting goalie we should have traded for Brian Elliott who had a 1.56 GAA and .940 save percentage that year.

Smith also a killer season that year - 930 save percentage, 2.30 GAA. If he played that like this year - wouldn't be much of a debate who's playing net. Sadly 29 year old Mike Smith isn't walking through that door.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think tonight, with the team going with Rittich, it's the best sign so far that Rittich has the job to lose for now, yeah.

Smith getting Winnipeg was something, but when you factor in back to backs and Smith being perhaps sick for the Ranger game it can be explained away.

This week no back to backs, and they seem to be using Rittich for the tougher game and the Smith for the weaker opponent, or Rittich for both.

At this point its still win and you are in as far as we know. Smith has lost his last 3 starts (with great stats in 1 of the games). Until we see someone lose and keep the net - hard to tell.

That said - Rittich has gotten most of the tough games lately excluding the Jets - Vegas x 2, Toronto.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

At this point its still win and you are in as far as we know. Smith has lost his last 3 starts (with great stats in 1 of the games). Until we see someone lose and keep the net - hard to tell.

That said - Rittich has gotten most of the tough games lately excluding the Jets - Vegas x 2, Toronto.

Rittich started against Toronto, gave up six, and then started the next one against Vegas.

They seem to be using him as the starter, with the Winnipeg exception.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ Cool. I found this too, from the same guy, which is getting interesting. He does some neat work.

What would the impact on standings be if you replaced the goalies with league average goaltending?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1106218358792511489

That's a great chart. Dallas, Boston, and NYI are interesting in that it's pretty clear a lot of their success is due to exceptional goaltending and even the Lightning owe a lot of their success to their goaltenders. Poor Flyers fans as it seems like the same story every year for them.

[MrMike]

Nm

[Bingo]

Rittich pulls ahead on the last 5 games now, still trailing others. Way ahead on quality starts

Player	#	Last 5	Last 10	Last 15	Last 20	QS%
Smith	36	0.919	0.913	0.905	0.903	44%
Rittich	42	0.920	0.895	0.896	0.898	62%

Best sign is both goalies above average in their last 5 appearances.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Just like many other times, you pretend that you know a lot more than other people. It's gotten very annoying especially when you "claim" to know how everything works.

Do you know or understand basic principles of economics? You mention how there will be a lot of goalies available this summer, well increased supply leads to a decrease in prices. With the number of goalies available in Free Agency and with a salary cap, teams are going to very quickly move on to their second or third options if their top choice is demanding too much money which will then ultimately reduce the price of the top choice.

Just because there will be 15 goalies in Free Agency doesn't necessarily mean there are 15 open NHL roster spots for those goalies.

He may or may not get 3.0 mil but your opinion is as good as mine, not fact.

This presumes a very efficient market dominated by rational market buyers and sellers. Also, I don't know what supply or demand elasticity looks like for goalies.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Best sign is both goalies above average in their last 5 appearances.

This is why I've been a lot less worried about our starter question lately.

The coaches can't eff that up if they have no bad options

[sa226]

They had Sigalet on the post gamer show last night. Depending on if you believe anything that comes out of a coaches mouth this time of year, the plan is to get both guys games in the final stretch. They want both to be in a rhythm for playoffs. Playing well, and feeling good about their game. I tend to believe that, especially with the work that Rittich has received lately. They built Smith back up, and after a tough stretch, they built Rittich back up.

I don't even know who I want to start game 1. Smith's wackiness concerns me, but when he is at his best which I believe he still can be, he is pretty good.

Rittich has provided the best level of goaltending this season. BSD has stolen some games this year. But I have noticed a tendency for him to go down to the butterfly a tad bit early which seems to make him vulnerable to those well placed laser shots. You have to tip your hat to the shooter in those scenarios but I bet the scouting report on Rittich includes that.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if both goalies see work in round 1. Not because they struggled and pulled a Brian Elliott either.