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Old 04-01-2013, 11:26 PM   #1
Scoutski
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Default Depth of 2013 Draft Class?

In many of the threads running back to last year, there has been a calming sentiment that the 2013 draft runs incredibly deep (also increasing the value of the extra firsts the Flames have picked up from Iggy and Bouw).

I am more than open to accepting that this is the case, however I don't claim to have any skills in assessing player talent and I was wondering where do people reliably source these kinds of claims? Generally I'll read up on scouting reports and ISS rankings to get an idea of the players available while looking for relative information, such as "Player X has a style similar to NHL Player X" (Although, I feel these often refer to player ceilings rather than realistic outcomes).

I recently read this article 2013 NHL draft lacks depth of talent from Brian Costello who claims to source "dozens of scouts":

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...of-talent.html

I'm not taking this article as gospel, but I'd love to be pointed to other sources to read up or some evidence to the contrary?

Thanks
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:35 PM   #2
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I'm glad someone asked about this. I read some stuff about the players coming up in the drafts, but I am woefully inadequate at comparing this class to previous years.
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:54 PM   #3
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I think this draft is actually pretty excellent better then normal to be honest.

At one point people were comparing it to the 2003 draft and I think that's where you're seeing the blowback once they notice it's not anymore.
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:58 PM   #4
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I will say this draft will be better than last years.

Yakupov is a weak #1 pick and the best d-man was picked at #8. Last year's was a fairly weak draft in comparison to this years.

I don't think there will ever be another 2003 draft class though, that year was insane.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:00 AM   #5
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I'm not discrediting either of your opinions, but why do you think that? What has led you to the conclusion that it's better than any other year? That's the real meat of what I want to find out...
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:30 AM   #6
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I've scouted each of the last 4 drafts including this one for the CPHL draft (I'm a bit overly thorough for a sim hockey league), and overall, the abilities shown by this group is better than last year, and by decent margin. A combination of the 2008 and 2010 drafts would be the closest comparison to this one. There are a similar group of defensemen as there were in the Doughty draft (albeit slightly worse as a group) and there are a similar group of quality forwards in the 2010 draft.

The guys that are in the 20's to the 60's are about the same as the 2010 draft where there was a few really decent guys. I haven't seen every player rated in that range, but the ones I have seen are in the same ballpark as the ones I watched when scouting that draft.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:56 AM   #7
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I think there's an obvious feel that the top 10-15, at the least, are great. Top 5 are absolutely amazing and I think you've need to go hard off the boards in order to not find a good pick if you're in lottery position when you've got Jones, Mackinnon, Drouin, Barkov, and Monahan, most of which I bet would be competitors for #1 picks in years. A similar trend feeling extends to much of the 1st and early into the second, where I think we have about 40-45 players who could really be 1st round possibilities most years. It evens out later, and I really don't see a super "deep" draft where you'll get many Byfuglien-esc surprises late in the draft, but you've got a hell of a 1st and 2nd round. The draft is overall a little better than the norm, but as I just mentioned, I don't think you'll get as huge a draft as 2003.

Where this comes from: I've been a casual scout (for simulation leagues) since about '08-'09 with a bit of a personal favouratism towards players who are two-way (so offensive defencemen or forwards who can play 3 situations) and I've definitely found a lot of players to my liking this year. I haven't seen a year comparable to this, at least while I scouted.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:59 AM   #8
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When players like Monahan, Nishushkin, and Lindholm are going 5-10 you know you've got a good draft at the top end. Then you've got Ristolainen and others in there as well.
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Old 04-02-2013, 02:40 AM   #9
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Best QMJHL draft class in two decades, according to Quebec scouts.
WHL talent level is very good. Not sure about OHL.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:17 PM   #10
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OHL crop is good but not outstanding. Monahan, Zadorov, Nurse, etc. are all solid players likely to be 1A type players at their positons. The follow up of Domi, Horvat, Rychel, Dickinson and Hartman all have the potential to be solid top6 forwards.
Next year's OHL crop will be ridiculous I think 5 or even 6 of the top 15 will be from the O.
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:49 PM   #11
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http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

Comment From Gerry
How do you see overall strength of this draft? There have been some organizations who have suggested that it is over rated. The top 10 are exceptional, but after that it is weak. Do you agree?

Craig Button: Perspective will always vary. I think this draft has similarities to 2003 draft in that, there are very good players deep in the first round and I think there will be very good players drafted in the 2nd round like 2003 with Bergeron and Weber.

That from the brother of our head scout
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Old 04-02-2013, 02:11 PM   #12
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Although Button doesn't flat out say that they are wrong, but that he disagrees.

I honestly don't know, but it does seem like the hype died down. Even the optimisits went from being; "OMFG, this is a deep draft..." to; "This is a fairly deep, but perspectives may vary...".

There doesn't appear to be any generational talents, but probably 10 players that would typically go top 5. After that, just based on what I read, it looks like business as usual. Only time will tell though.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:36 PM   #13
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I found the THN take very curious...most (self included) think this is one of the best drafts in a decade.

My last analysis, I had 43 prospects I think have "1st rnd" talent.

As Freeway noted, exceptional yr from the Q, very good year from the Dub, probably average or slightly below for the OHL for top end talent. Some really good Euro prospects.
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Old 04-09-2013, 08:04 AM   #14
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Fine for them to compare 2013 to 2003 after the fact. If you look at the 2003 draft today, none of the top 5( stahl would be the only possible exception) would be picked in the top 5. In fact, arguably the best player taken was at 48( Weber). Today, the top 5 in that draft may look Weber, getzlaf, Perry, Seabrook, Parise. So it just goes to tell you what the experts really know.
In terms of depth of draft, we wont know that for a few years. I think the consensus is that it is a great draft at the top end.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:10 AM   #15
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every year the media hype train makes the prospect pool seem extravagent/generational. The hype this year is similar to they hype of all past years.

But i think the talent pool avg's out to about the same, where the top3 are no brainers, top 10 is decent. After that, more or less a crapshoot till the mid 2nd round. After that it's more or less a lottery ticket.
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Old 04-09-2013, 12:02 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbsy View Post
But i think the talent pool avg's out to about the same, where the top3 are no brainers, top 10 is decent. After that, more or less a crapshoot till the mid 2nd round. After that it's more or less a lottery ticket.
If that were true, Calgary would draft as well as Detroit.

It is not a lottery or a crapshoot. Some teams are better at finding quality players after the blue chip players are gone.
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Old 04-09-2013, 12:30 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Vail View Post
If that were true, Calgary would draft as well as Detroit.

It is not a lottery or a crapshoot. Some teams are better at finding quality players after the blue chip players are gone.

The last of Detroit's late round steals was drafted almost 15 years ago. Detroit's "genius" came from being able to outspend the Flames 3 to 1 at the time, not only on their on-ice product but off the ice as well. Now that the playing field is more even (not even, but more even), Detroit's drafting and development looks average at best. Detroit's "genius" as an organization may be one of the most overstated hockey myths of all time

With their recent late first round picks the Wings have drafted Ferraro, Smith, Sheahan, McCollum, Kindl etc. Not impressive at all, probably below average compared to the league.

You're right that some teams are better than others at drafting in the late rounds, but Calgary isn't that bad. Since they established an actual scouting department (2004ish), their first round picks have largely dissapointed but their late round picks have been roughly average compared to the league in terms of success. Before this Calgary employeed only a couple full time scouts, but were asked to compete with full scouting departments in Detroit to find late-round steals. It's no wonder that they didn't succeed.

The scouting department was in it's baby-stages under Sutter, it is now more mature under this management and the results, although early to judge, are definitley looking good in early and late stages of the draft. I know I quoted your post and then went off on several tangents, sorry, but I feel it all still applies to this thread
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Old 04-09-2013, 12:48 PM   #18
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I think this is a deeper draft. The reluctance from teams to move first round picks shows how highly teams are coveting picks in this draft.

Last year Paul Gaustad was traded for a first, and this year teams were hesitant to move a first for top line talent.
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Old 04-10-2013, 04:13 AM   #19
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Quote:
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every year the media hype train makes the prospect pool seem extravagent/generational. The hype this year is similar to they hype of all past years.
Not true. Some drafts are clearly less hyped and for good reason. I've heard many quotes from scouts in past years that that particular year wasn't looking very deep. This year started off being compared to 2003 which is easily the best draft class in the last 20 years. Some scouts later countered that it wasn't as good as that hype indicated. But it still remains a deep year in the minds of most.

IMO this draft looks deeper than most of the drafts in the last 15 years. You have guys like Monahan, Lindholm, Nurse, etc who would be ranked in the top 5 in other years IMO. I think most of the top 5 in this draft would all be ranked ahead of Yakupov/Galchenyuk if they were in last years draft.

If you can't notice the difference in hype in deep/weak draft years then you aren't researching/reading enough about those draft years.
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Old 04-10-2013, 09:38 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scoutski View Post
In many of the threads running back to last year, there has been a calming sentiment that the 2013 draft runs incredibly deep (also increasing the value of the extra firsts the Flames have picked up from Iggy and Bouw).

I am more than open to accepting that this is the case, however I don't claim to have any skills in assessing player talent and I was wondering where do people reliably source these kinds of claims? Generally I'll read up on scouting reports and ISS rankings to get an idea of the players available while looking for relative information, such as "Player X has a style similar to NHL Player X" (Although, I feel these often refer to player ceilings rather than realistic outcomes).

I recently read this article 2013 NHL draft lacks depth of talent from Brian Costello who claims to source "dozens of scouts":

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...of-talent.html

I'm not taking this article as gospel, but I'd love to be pointed to other sources to read up or some evidence to the contrary?

Thanks
In a more recent article on THN, Costello states a deep draft class. I called him on it via twitter (in a cordial fashion) - and he admitted to being perplexed, stating a small scout sample size the 1st time (dozens of scouts!!!).

Link to his twitter reply: https://twitter.com/bcostellothn/sta...34295476576257
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