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Old 04-22-2019, 09:15 AM   #1
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Default The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

I wanted to pull away from the huge Trump Presidential Thread to talk about the issues that Democrats are running on for 2020.


To start: A couple of things to discuss



First:


https://twitter.com/statuses/1119616082338353153


This is a powerful ad.


However, I still feel like the auto-industry ads are low hanging fruit. I'm tired of hearing about the plight of the UAW worker. It doesn't mean I'm not sympathetic, but I'm tired of propping them up as a symbol of what we can be again. It's part of what has really resonated with me about Mayor Pete's message so far. It's refreshing to have someone really stand up and say "we can't keep looking back at a successful era and try to replicate it over and over. We need to use that energy to build new industry and new opportunity." That's a message I can get behind.



There has to be something beyond that. Auto Workers in 3 states didn't swing the election. Broaden that ad. Make people understand that when you screw up a factory town it's not 1600 people that lose their job, it's 20,000. It's hotels, restaurants, retail stores, schools, public service officials, you name it. It all rolls downhill. But they focus on this small segment of GM workers and not once in 3 minutes other than "the town has gone downhill, there's potholes everywhere" do you get any notion of economic impact of what closing a plant like this does.


Second:


The number one thing I wish the Dems would get away from is using the word "free". I just saw an article today about Liz Warren's big plan for "FREE COLLEGE".



https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/22/polit...lan/index.html



Stop calling it free. Nothing is free. It's taxpayer supported college. Which can be a great concept! It's moving funds currently allocated to the Military Industrial Complex and the lack of funds received from large corporations and banks and allocating them to responsible social-based programs like healthcare and education. This is not a hard concept. If you want to get moderates, delete free from your vocabulary. It's disingenuous to those on the left expecting something and it's ammo on the right to perpetuate the "ghetto freeloader" message.
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:09 AM   #2
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I think the most interesting candidates, by a long shot are Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. They are "new leaf" candidates that will get a lot of moderates and undecideds to take a look at the Democrats. I think both of these 2 are the biggest threats to Trump in a general election. I'm a right leaning moderate (mainly economics), but would take a serious look at either of these 2.

Bernie is divisive inside his own party by virtue of simply being straight, wealthy, white and male. He'll be in a #NeverTrump situation where large sections of his own party will never support him. He will create huge turmoil within the Democrat party that wont be a positive during a campaign.

Harris and Booker are the types that Trump hopes wins the Dem nom and runs against him. He would rather go up against an identity politics fueled, negative "if you dont vote for me you are a Nazi/white supremacist/anti woman/homophobe/etc" type of opponent than anyone else, which these 2 strike me as being this type. Especially Booker. Trump has the best chance of beating a candidate/campaign like that and retaining power.

I think Warren/Biden would get steam rolled.

At the end of the day though, I think the campaign messaging is going to be more important than the candidate.

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Old 04-22-2019, 10:28 AM   #3
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Their only hope is to put some kind of intelligence potion into the water system or crop dust red states with it to make the Trump supporters smarter, and stop voting against their own best interests.
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:17 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by RyZ View Post
I think the most interesting candidates, by a long shot are Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. They are "new leaf" candidates that will get a lot of moderates and undecideds to take a look at the Democrats. I think both of these 2 are the biggest threats to Trump in a general election. I'm a right leaning moderate (mainly economics), but would take a serious look at either of these 2.

Bernie is divisive inside his own party by virtue of simply being straight, wealthy, white and male. He'll be in a #NeverTrump situation where large sections of his own party will never support him. He will create huge turmoil within the Democrat party that wont be a positive during a campaign.

Harris and Booker are the types that Trump hopes wins the Dem nom and runs against him. He would rather go up against an identity politics fueled, negative "if you dont vote for me you are a Nazi/white supremacist/anti woman/homophobe/etc" type of opponent than anyone else, which these 2 strike me as being this type. Especially Booker. Trump has the best chance of beating a candidate/campaign like that and retaining power.

I think Warren/Biden would get steam rolled.

At the end of the day though, I think the campaign messaging is going to be more important than the candidate.
I would just like to reiterate that the reason many in the democratic party are not big fans of Bernie is that he is NOT a democrat... To me that seems like a pretty big requisite. Even in his current senate re-election campaign he still is an independent. Being part of the democratic party means working together to help all democrats, not just being one when its beneficial to you. Great, he caucuses with the dems; that doesn't make him one.

He is obviously a much better choice to lead than Trump. But I really hope he does not win and that if he does lose out, that he rallies his supporters to actually support the candidate unlike last time.
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Old 04-22-2019, 11:44 AM   #5
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My ideal situation would be something like Gavin Newsom and Cory Booker, but I doubt Newson runs. Maybe down the road a bit after his time as governor is over.
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Old 04-22-2019, 12:29 PM   #6
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Sad state of affairs for Democrats. They were so busy trying their best to push an un-electable and completely unlikable Hillary Clinton that they literally had no backup plan (unless their only backup plan was for Trump to get impeached). Where's the next groomed Obama? Is it Joe Biden? He's 76 and his brand of politics is well past the expiry date. Bernie Sanders has a strong reddit following, but that doesn't mean much in the real world where demographics are a little more diverse than millenials. He's also 77 and as mentioned, not a true democrat and very divisive. He likely would be the best bet to beat Trump, but the Democrats don't want him to lead as shown last candidacy by the DNC. Sanders is not one of them.

Elizabeth Warren? She'd get chewed up by Trump, there's no way she would win. And again, she's another aging candidate at 69 recycling the same old Democrats ideals.

2020 looks like a lost election already before it got underway.

People who didn't vote for Trump already won't vote for him. And people who voted from Trump may not like him, but he's still a Republican (by name only) and no other country votes by party lines as much as the US does. Without a compelling candidate, the Democrats are not likely to make any ground. They barely gained back the House in 2018, not quite the Democratic blue wave promised.

It's ironic that 2016 was supposed to be a weak Republican year and heeding to Clinton, in the end Trump just destroyed everything by being loud and obnoxious and giving people red hats.

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Old 04-22-2019, 12:40 PM   #7
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Dems are going to #### themselves again probably.
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Old 04-22-2019, 12:47 PM   #8
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Dems are going to #### themselves again probably.
Hot take - Dems will promote a broad spectrum of candidates, sow division within their base because many will feel that "their guy didn't win", and fail to create much consolidated support behind their candidate and all but ensure that Trump wins in 2020.

I have low hopes of any organization that managed to bungle an election against Trump.
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Old 04-22-2019, 12:48 PM   #9
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That's not really a hot take when that's what happened last election lol
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:03 PM   #10
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The Dems veered into Identity Politics last election and it cost them along with railroading Bernie Sanders. Now they have double down on the Identity Politics and their strong candidates are either relatively unknown or sit at the top of the (pro)regressive stack and that is bad!
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Old 04-22-2019, 01:31 PM   #11
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He is obviously a much better choice to lead than Trump. But I really hope he does not win and that if he does lose out, that he rallies his supporters to actually support the candidate unlike last time.
I donít think Bernie can really be blamed for not getting all of his supporters to support Clinton. If I recall correctly he gave her his endorsement when speaking to his supporters after he lost to her and they responded by booing her whenever he mentioned her name.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:21 PM   #12
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^ Why would Bernie run again when he knows his supporters will just end up voting against (or not voting) the eventual Democratic candidate? He must realize that his campaign in 2016 played a part in getting Trump elected.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:25 PM   #13
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^ Why would Bernie run again when he knows his supporters will just end up voting against (or not voting) the eventual Democratic candidate? He must realize that his campaign getting sabotaged by the DNC in 2016 played a part in getting Trump elected.
fyp

He plans on being the Democratic candidate.

Quote:
2020 looks like a lost election already before it got underway.
The Democrats have a shot IF they unite behind the candidate who wins the nomination. If they go into 2020 as a splintered party, they are done.

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Old 04-22-2019, 03:47 PM   #14
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So far there are 19 Democratic candidates that have announced.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...andidates.html


I feel like Booker and Harris are establishment politicians that won't generate much interest other than from PACs and other establishment politicians.

Warren no longer is seen as the thorn in the side anymore and has had too many gaffes to beat Trump. Her star is fading. I feel the same can be said for O'Rourke. The more he talks the less competent he appears.

Sanders still excites a lot of people on all sides of the political spectrum but he needs to win the nomination first. Plus, he's old.

There are some one-note candidates like Yang, Moulton, Inslee.

Then there are some of the odder candidates (IMO) like Delaney, Williamson, Hickenlooper, Messam.

To me that leaves a field of Buttigieg, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Ryan and Swalwell. My favorite of the bunch so far is Buttigieg but I wonder how broad his appeal is.

There could be some others yet to declare, like Biden, that would make an impact.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:33 PM   #15
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Tulsi Gabbard talks way too much sense to become the nominee.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:56 PM   #16
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Buttigieg will be the nominee, I think. He’s great.
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Old 04-22-2019, 05:02 PM   #17
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I'd love to see a Bernie vs Donald election. It would be so comical to watch. I can only imagine the things Trump would call Sanders and the dear mongering.

There has to be a Democrat relatively young with some star power? Selecting Warren would be suicide.

Michelle Obama would be an interesting choice. She'd have a much better chance than Hilary ever did. Although selecting another former first lady to run might look desperate. Michelle certainly sells out every event she books within minutes. She also has amazing charisma and reviews. She unfortunately has confirmed numerous times she won't be running.

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Old 04-22-2019, 05:07 PM   #18
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Michelle Obama would be a high-risk, high-reward candidate.

It’d drive Trump insane if an African-American woman named Obama beat him but he’d be intolerable if he won.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:30 PM   #19
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I'd suspect it will be one of:

- Biden (to appeal to centrists/traditional democrates)
- Sanders (to appeal to progressive wing)
- Buttigegegeg (to appeal to "anti-establishment" optimistic voter. Aka White Obama).


I don't even know who has the best shot at winning. Its such crowded field, and I would argue everyone aside from these 3 is downright forgettable.

I'd suspect Biden or Buttig has a chance at beating Trump. Sanders is too polarizing for the mainstream still and you're going to lose a lot of independents and centrists by being an open socialist, even though the party is moving that way.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:14 PM   #20
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I think that no matter who is nominated by the Dems, that person will be the next President. The midterm results showed that Trump has re-energized the Democratic base exceptionally well, which was needed because HRC was a wet blanket for enthusiasm.

I'd give it 95% that the Democratic nominee wins going away.
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