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Old 05-14-2019, 07:53 PM   #101
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You cannot look at the dollar exchange like that. Inflation is not offset that way. The calculation is far more complex. Also that index doesn't include China, which is Endgame's biggest international contributor.
In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.

I adjusted Avatarís exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.

The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to todayís exchange rate then apply inflation to get to todayís dollars. But Iím lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.

So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis itís fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that Iím willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.

The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:21 AM   #102
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In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.

I adjusted Avatarís exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.

The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to todayís exchange rate then apply inflation to get to todayís dollars. But Iím lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.

So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis itís fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that Iím willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.

The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...

My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:33 AM   #103
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Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:50 AM   #104
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Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
I agree, but the counter is that there are more movies released today and they get shorter runs; there are very few re-releases anymore since they go to other outlets; there are many multiplexes today so a film can be on far more screens; and so on. It's just very tough to get a consistent metric.

But here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/ you can see there is a record that is "inflation adjusted" that attempts to bring the disparity into line.

In general, I agree with you. Using the dollar value of tickets is an almost impossible way to compare across a time frame. Number of tickets over the fist 3 months after release (or some time frame) would be a better metric. But it won't happen so long as marketing want to be able to make everything a new record, facts are secondary.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:48 PM   #105
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Theoretically, with an expanding population and more access to international markets, we should be able to constantly hit new records in terms of total sales. Pirating plays a role in diminishing this effect. However, with the big effects movies, people still go to the cinema for the experience.
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Old 05-15-2019, 05:22 PM   #106
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If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...

My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
Box office mojo inflation adjustment uses average ticket price rather than inflation to adjust pricing. They donít have a worldwide adjusted chart though.

I would say the corollary is also true you canít just declare the inflation adjusted number the number we should compare against without doing the work on foreign exchange.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:35 PM   #107
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That we're essentially comparing apples to oranges is why i've never put much stock in box office numbers. its just become a part of the marketing hoo-haw

It's fun to see how many bazillions of dollars a movie makes--or what I like better, how badly a movie utterly bombs--but i'd really like to see how many tickets, say, The Lion King (1994) sold vs The Lion King (2019), or Star Wars vs Force Awakens, etc.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:41 PM   #108
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
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Old 05-15-2019, 09:49 PM   #109
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
Not surprising, which isnít a knock on the movieís popularity. It was just a movie that absolutely screamed to be seen as early as possible.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:23 AM   #110
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
The "Friday" for Endgame, wasn't really a Friday. It was more of a Wed-Fri, for which most people pre-bought tickets. If you look at it that way, it takes some of the sting off the steep drop offs.
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Old 05-19-2019, 12:58 PM   #111
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After it’s 4th weekend Endgame has earned

770 million domestic
1219 OS-China
625 China
2615 Total

This leaves it at 173 million to go to beat Avatars 2788 making it really close.

China has 4 days left until its out of theatres so say 5 million there

Domestic the good news is that the drops were only slightly worse that Inifinity War compared to significantly higher (% wise) in previous weaks. This suggests that the affects of the huge opening weekend might be wearing off and it will behave more typically for the rest of the run. Infinity War earned 83m to the end of its run. Ultron earned 50m, if it has similar drops to Ultron it would earn 63 million. If it has Similar drops to Civil War it will earn 60m.

So I think somewhere between 60-83 left domestically so 830m-853m

Internationaly Endgame earned 39 million OS-China compared to 32 million for IW earned. This was a significantly lower drop than IW had. IW earned another 95 million to the end of its run. This puts the high end at 115M and the low (taking 75% of the high based on the domestic numbers above) is 87M. This totals to be 1306 - 1334.

So that gives a final range of 2766 - 2817. If it earns what IW did from here on out it finishes at 2794. I think I am overstating the oversees number slightly as it used IW legs and Endgame earnings

So still in the coin flip range to beat Avatar my gut feels is that it’s within 5-10 million and they push it the rest of the way when Far From Home comes out.
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Old 05-28-2019, 10:31 PM   #112
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Looking like it will come up at bit short.

China is done at about 629 and the International total sits at 1254 and domestic sits at 803 for a total of 2.686 Billion. 102 million behind Avatar

Earnings for the 4 day weekend Domestically were about the same as Infinity War so thatís about 2 weeks now matching Infinity War earnings. The Monday dropped more than IW did though so we will see this week if it continues with the same holds. If it can follow infinity war from this point out it would finish at 854.6 million. If it drops at 45-50% from the previous week from here on out it would earn 30-35 million which would be pretty steep even in the summer. So the bottom end is 835.


OS - China earned 16 million over the weekend and 35 million over the week. So with legs similar to IW it gets about 50 million from here on out and with 50% drops get 35 million or so. That puts the international total at 1290 - 1305

That leaves the total range at 2753- 2788. So it needs to perform as well as IW from here to the end to make it past Avatar. And while itís holding like it for now any slight increases in drop will have it come up short. Avatars first run in theatres was only 2.778 billion as it was re-released and earned another 10 million so Endgame as a shot of being the biggest 1st run movie if it doesnít get the overall title.
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Old 05-28-2019, 11:05 PM   #113
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This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
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Old 05-28-2019, 11:33 PM   #114
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Goddamn Avatar sucked. At least Endgame was entertaining.
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Old 05-28-2019, 11:42 PM   #115
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I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
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Old 05-28-2019, 11:53 PM   #116
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I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
You're doing great work! I applaud you!

God that movie sucked.
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Old 05-29-2019, 12:00 AM   #117
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This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
Since they just bought Fox, they already do own it.
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Old 05-29-2019, 12:21 AM   #118
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I'm going to go see Endgame again just so can feel like I did my part to knock Avatar down a notch. Avatar is just a bad movie!
Only 9,999,999 more times to go.
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Old 05-29-2019, 12:05 PM   #119
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This all seems spot on. I'm guessing it will end up about $40M short of Avatar unless Disney gives it a marketing push before the end of summer. Which it just might for the sake of being able to say it owns the highest grossing movie of all time.
I think it will be closer than 40M one way or another.

Domestically, Infinity War still brought in over 50M from this point forward (Day 32 and beyond). Sure, which movies are out and the frontloaded viewership of Endgame will make a difference but I think another ballpark 50M from Endgame domestically is a reasonable approach.

That places it within 51M from Avatar without any overseas revenues. With overseas revenues, it's going to be close.

I think it passes Avatar by maybe 10M or so. It will be slow, but I think it passes it.
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Old 06-02-2019, 06:40 PM   #120
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Godzilla with a rather pedestrian debut, actually beat by Aladdin on Saturday and Sunday.
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