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Old 05-14-2019, 06:53 PM   #101
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You cannot look at the dollar exchange like that. Inflation is not offset that way. The calculation is far more complex. Also that index doesn't include China, which is Endgame's biggest international contributor.
In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.

I adjusted Avatarís exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.

The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to todayís exchange rate then apply inflation to get to todayís dollars. But Iím lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.

So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis itís fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that Iím willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.

The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:21 AM   #102
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In an ideal world we would track ticket sold worldwide. All of these inflation calculations are proxies for tickets sold. So if you are concerned about tickets sold exchange rate makes a big difference.

I adjusted Avatarís exchange to today rather than adjusted Endgames gross so China is irrelevant in that sense.

The correct way to do it would be to take each currency value at the end of 2009 and adjust to todayís exchange rate then apply inflation to get to todayís dollars. But Iím lazy so looked for a short cut. If you look at Avatar its european grosses are where it dominated. So by checking the change in European exchange vs the American dollar index. 1.27 for the Euro to 1.24 for the dollar index I feel its close enough to say that the international box office is 20-30% higher than it would have been if it sold the same numbers of tickets in the same regions prior to accounting for inflation. The affect of inflation of 1.17 for both the worldwide and domestic totals.

So it works out close enough that without a more detailed analysis itís fair to say that the exchange affects offset the inflation affects within the level of analysis that Iím willing to do. Or at a minimum a comparison of the adjusted worldwide values of Avatar and Endgame have significant errors which favour Avatar.

The other thing to note is that Avatar was the first film to see the 3D bump so its average ticket sale price is higher than the average ticket sale price for industry so the inflation number for Avatar skews high anyways.
If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...

My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:33 AM   #103
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Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:50 AM   #104
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Does anyone track ticket sales, or just dollars? Seems the most important factor to popularity would be number of tickets, not how much it made, considering the vast global diversity in costs.
I agree, but the counter is that there are more movies released today and they get shorter runs; there are very few re-releases anymore since they go to other outlets; there are many multiplexes today so a film can be on far more screens; and so on. It's just very tough to get a consistent metric.

But here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/ you can see there is a record that is "inflation adjusted" that attempts to bring the disparity into line.

In general, I agree with you. Using the dollar value of tickets is an almost impossible way to compare across a time frame. Number of tickets over the fist 3 months after release (or some time frame) would be a better metric. But it won't happen so long as marketing want to be able to make everything a new record, facts are secondary.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:48 AM   #105
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Theoretically, with an expanding population and more access to international markets, we should be able to constantly hit new records in terms of total sales. Pirating plays a role in diminishing this effect. However, with the big effects movies, people still go to the cinema for the experience.
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Old 05-15-2019, 04:22 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
If we're talking about tickets sold, things are way off. The price of an average ticket has gone through the roof recently, with all sorts of add-ons, Dbox, VIP, etc...

My point was that you can't just declare that inflation doesn't matter because the USD has gone up relative to the Euro.
Box office mojo inflation adjustment uses average ticket price rather than inflation to adjust pricing. They donít have a worldwide adjusted chart though.

I would say the corollary is also true you canít just declare the inflation adjusted number the number we should compare against without doing the work on foreign exchange.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:35 PM   #107
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That we're essentially comparing apples to oranges is why i've never put much stock in box office numbers. its just become a part of the marketing hoo-haw

It's fun to see how many bazillions of dollars a movie makes--or what I like better, how badly a movie utterly bombs--but i'd really like to see how many tickets, say, The Lion King (1994) sold vs The Lion King (2019), or Star Wars vs Force Awakens, etc.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:41 PM   #108
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:49 PM   #109
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
Not surprising, which isnít a knock on the movieís popularity. It was just a movie that absolutely screamed to be seen as early as possible.
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Old 05-16-2019, 10:23 AM   #110
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Today was the first day Endgame made less than infinity war domestically. So itís going to end up as one of the worst legs for a Marvel Movie.
The "Friday" for Endgame, wasn't really a Friday. It was more of a Wed-Fri, for which most people pre-bought tickets. If you look at it that way, it takes some of the sting off the steep drop offs.
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Old 05-19-2019, 11:58 AM   #111
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After it’s 4th weekend Endgame has earned

770 million domestic
1219 OS-China
625 China
2615 Total

This leaves it at 173 million to go to beat Avatars 2788 making it really close.

China has 4 days left until its out of theatres so say 5 million there

Domestic the good news is that the drops were only slightly worse that Inifinity War compared to significantly higher (% wise) in previous weaks. This suggests that the affects of the huge opening weekend might be wearing off and it will behave more typically for the rest of the run. Infinity War earned 83m to the end of its run. Ultron earned 50m, if it has similar drops to Ultron it would earn 63 million. If it has Similar drops to Civil War it will earn 60m.

So I think somewhere between 60-83 left domestically so 830m-853m

Internationaly Endgame earned 39 million OS-China compared to 32 million for IW earned. This was a significantly lower drop than IW had. IW earned another 95 million to the end of its run. This puts the high end at 115M and the low (taking 75% of the high based on the domestic numbers above) is 87M. This totals to be 1306 - 1334.

So that gives a final range of 2766 - 2817. If it earns what IW did from here on out it finishes at 2794. I think I am overstating the oversees number slightly as it used IW legs and Endgame earnings

So still in the coin flip range to beat Avatar my gut feels is that it’s within 5-10 million and they push it the rest of the way when Far From Home comes out.
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