Ontario Election thread - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Jacks · 03-09-2018, 12:04 PM

Christine Elliot has conceded defeat, looks like Ford managed to pull it off.

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Doesn't really appear to be a thread for this except maybe the Patrick Brown thread.

Looks like Doug Ford has about a 50% chance of winning the leadership!. I don't know what Conservatives are thinking, regardless of his policy ideas his brand is so toxic to so many people they would be shooting themselves in the foot electing him. Even with a bullet in the foot they might still beat the Liberals but this has to be a ray of hope for Wynne. I could even see the NDP gaining a ton of ground when people have to choose between Ford and a tired corrupt Liberal Party.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/onta...poll-1.4569420

CaptainCrunch · 03-09-2018, 12:10 PM

I'm betting we see a NDP government in Ontario. I honestly don't think that Wynne has much of a chance of anything except resigning the day after the election.

Bleeding Red · 03-09-2018, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm betting we see a NDP government in Ontario. I honestly don't think that Wynne has much of a chance of anything except resigning the day after the election.

Then you, like many others, have not been paying attention.

The 3 standards will keep Wynne in power:

1 - Long memories. If it's not how bad Rae was it is how worse Harris was. I still have left wing friends that spit on the ground every time they think of Rae days (last ON NDP government) and believe that the only to prevent "Harris part deux" is by voting Liberal en mass.

2 - The PCs have always (if not already) shoot themselves in the foot. If it's not arrogance (Eaves), then it's equal school funding (Tory), or cutting the public sector workforce (Huddak). Now it's infighting, corruption, scandal. They pick the wrong leader (2 in 4 chance of that) a lot of people will stay home.

3 - The tried and true Liberal playbook. A little fear mongering - PCs will take us back to the stone age, climate deniers, wage cutters, gut public schools, re-open the abortion issue. The NDP are not ready to govern, besides voting NDP is a waste. Only a vote for a Liberal will keep the PCs away. A little reminder how bad things were under Rae & Harris. Grandma Wynne and the Liberal party will take care of you.

The Liberals were trailing in polls at the outset of the last three elections. With all the craziness here lately she could easily win.

CaptainCrunch · 03-09-2018, 01:00 PM

I've been partially paying attention, I've also talked to a few family members and friends in Ontario. Wynne has boned the road so completely that people would pretty much vote in Ming the Merciless over her (Even though if Ming the merciless was running in an election, I would vote for him)

The Ontario playbook of fearmonger might not work this time, a lot of people are looking at the combination of cost of living, power bills, scandals and job loss in the province.

I think that Wynne gets crushed in the election.

I still think that somehow the NDP get the disenfranchised vote this time.

Jacks · 03-09-2018, 01:16 PM

I think if Elliot or Mulroney are chosen then the PC's will win a majority. If they pick Ford though, all bets are off. I'm a fairly blue Tory but I don't know if I could bring myself to vote for Ford. I might not vote for the first time in my life, mind you I'm not in Ont so it doesn't really matter.

Bleeding Red · 03-09-2018, 01:23 PM

A lot will depend on who the new PC leader will be.

Ford has a serious chance of winning. He is quite clear - he will halt the minimum wage hike to $15. Re-open the school curriculum debate (beyond just the sex ed sections) including teacher compensation and performance (he already poked that bear - no way is the government paying the union's negotiating team). He won't privatize like crazy, but he will try to cut the public sector by at least 10%.

The teacher & public sector unions carry a lot of weight here - 1 in 4 people get their paycheque from the ON government. That has almost 2 in 4 people voting for their friend & partner the Liberal party.

Wynne only has to note - she has made an effort to bring down power bills (no PST and a 24% cut) (this is really, in my view, only a northern ON issue. Most homeowners I speak with aren't feeling this), She is trying in put in rent controls and fund community housing. ON has gained jobs in the last year or so and according to her ON has the best economy in the G7. It'll be hard to remind voters of the Liberal scandals when the PC scandals are still front page news.

If Elliot wins the leadership and she can get past the association with "cutter" Flaherty, then she has a shot at a majority. If Mulrony wins leadership, then it may lead to a Liberal minority. If one of the other 2 win leadership, we're cooked.

Wynne wasn't liked back in 2014 - and she had the power plant scandal and Ornge hanging around her neck. One foot-in-mouth moment by Hudak mixed with fear mongering juice and you get Liberal Majority. Now she has the sale of Hydro One, her associates being acquitted at trial - no problem, "remember, I got beer into grocery stores!"

There is no movement here to "get rid of" Wynne like there was to remove Harper. Unless there is a big bombshell surprise, it'll be a lot closer than the polls.

Jacks · 03-09-2018, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleeding Red

The teacher & public sector unions carry a lot of weight here - 1 in 4 people get their paycheque from the ON government. That has almost 2 in 4 people voting for their friend & partner the Liberal party.

Wow, if that's true that is scary.

MarchHare · 03-09-2018, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacks

Wow, if that's true that is scary.

It's not true. Not even close. Per Statscan (2011 figures), the number of people working for Ontario provincial government agencies was 370,432 out of a total population of 12.8M, or slightly less than 3% of Ontario's population.

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...ovt62d-eng.htm

Edit: the figure is higher if you also include university and college staff (which are partially funded by the feds) and local school boards. If we include both of those, then the number of provincial employees was 510k in 2011, or about 4% of the population.

cam_wmh · 03-09-2018, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleeding Red

A lot will depend on who the new PC leader will be.

Ford has a serious chance of winning. He is quite clear - he will halt the minimum wage hike to $15. Re-open the school curriculum debate (beyond just the sex ed sections) including teacher compensation and performance (he already poked that bear - no way is the government paying the union's negotiating team). He won't privatize like crazy, but he will try to cut the public sector by at least 10%.

The teacher & public sector unions carry a lot of weight here - 1 in 4 people get their paycheque from the ON government. That has almost 2 in 4 people voting for their friend & partner the Liberal party.

Wynne only has to note - she has made an effort to bring down power bills (no PST and a 24% cut) (this is really, in my view, only a northern ON issue. Most homeowners I speak with aren't feeling this), She is trying in put in rent controls and fund community housing. ON has gained jobs in the last year or so and according to her ON has the best economy in the G7. It'll be hard to remind voters of the Liberal scandals when the PC scandals are still front page news.

If Elliot wins the leadership and she can get past the association with "cutter" Flaherty, then she has a shot at a majority. If Mulrony wins leadership, then it may lead to a Liberal minority. If one of the other 2 win leadership, we're cooked.

Wynne wasn't liked back in 2014 - and she had the power plant scandal and Ornge hanging around her neck. One foot-in-mouth moment by Hudak mixed with fear mongering juice and you get Liberal Majority. Now she has the sale of Hydro One, her associates being acquitted at trial - no problem, "remember, I got beer into grocery stores!"

There is no movement here to "get rid of" Wynne like there was to remove Harper. Unless there is a big bombshell surprise, it'll be a lot closer than the polls.

Where did you hear that 1 in 4 figure?

FlamesAddiction · 03-09-2018, 10:52 PM

I am typically leaning Liberal, but I have grown to dislike Wynne. I would probably vote for Mulroney if she was the leader, but I will not vote for Ford.

I didn't care a lot for Brian Mulroney, but I respect Catherine on her own merit. She is a great business women and socially liberal enough.

The PCs need to think about the swing voters. Doug Ford might appeal to the base, but he won't win them the election IMO.

Dogbert · 03-10-2018, 03:27 PM

Looks like Doug Ford is the new leader.

Not to toot my own horn or anything, but during the 2016 U.S. campaign, I predicted that, if Trump won, the Ontario PCs would put some machination or another into place to make Ford their leader, and that the CPC will run a whole-hog Trumpist campaign in 2019 if that works as well.

FLAMESRULE · 03-10-2018, 03:35 PM

https://twitter.com/robertbenzie/sta...99424638693376

@robertbenzie
BREAKING: Senior Tory confides: "We have a @HillaryClinton-@realDonaldTrump situation. @fordnation has won 'electoral college' with more riding points, but @celliottability has 3,000 more voters." Hearing we may be headed to court. #onpoli #PCPOLdr

GirlySports · 03-10-2018, 03:53 PM

is this the craziest political race ever?

Leader has to resign triggering a 6 week campaign in which said leader re-enters for 2 days then backs out. And now this!

GGG · 03-10-2018, 03:58 PM

There was also contraversy leading up to the vote where Mulroney and Ford wanted to extend the voting deadline because mailed out PIN numbers weren't received yet and some PC members were emailed PIN numbers instead. Elliot was against, Mulroney and Ford lost the injunction.

Slava · 03-10-2018, 04:25 PM

And apparently they are just about to notify the crowd that they cannot announce results! Unbelievable, really. In a short time, a party that has had this debacle of a leadership campaign is going to sell itself as being able to run a province?

GirlySports · 03-10-2018, 04:53 PM

This is why a general election will never be done online!

I blame IT!

Bunk · 03-10-2018, 05:05 PM

Paper ballots are better.

GirlySports · 03-10-2018, 05:07 PM

The announcement is going to be that people need to go home.The room was only booked until 7pm and another party needs to get in.
Imagine if you're organizing the 7pm party and is standing outside.

Incroyable.

FLAMESRULE · 03-10-2018, 05:24 PM

HAHAHA...they've been kicked out of the hall. With results "as soon as practical". Pack your ####...you've been traded to the local Kwik-E-Mart.

There is booing like which you'd only hear at an Oilers game.

Bleeding Red · 03-10-2018, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Where did you hear that 1 in 4 figure?

I got it from an episode of the Agenda on the Television Ontario network, likely from a guest wonk. The number may have included federal and municipal government employees - all those affiliated with the top public sector unions.

Nothing official, purely anecdotal. I should have said so. My bad.