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Old 01-17-2021, 11:24 AM   #641
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God, is there any lower effort criticism than, "at the current pace of vaccinations it'll take x years to finish!"? I've seen that so many times about a bunch of jurisdictions; I can't believe anyone paid to write actually thinks that's a compelling argument. Yes, it's going to take 10 years to vaccinate everyone...

I guess that's natural when you have political hacks write about things they don't understand. Or when people try to use COVID to score political points. 2 months ago it was "dum-dum conservative Albertans are failures because the case levels are rising so fast", but I don't see too much coverage of how Alberta has now cut its daily cases by nearly 2/3rds in just over a month.
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Old 01-17-2021, 11:31 AM   #642
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Other countries like Israel, which is putting the world to shame, and the Untied States who will take years to vaccinate at current rates as well, and what are some others?

On par with Europe and ahead of the EU average. Australia hasnít started. Japan hasnít started. So could it be better? Yeah, sure. International embarrassment? Hardly.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


Sky-is-falling editorials didnít do Kinsella much good in 2019, he should probably take another breather again.
The US will soon be at the pace of vaccinating a million people a day and the daily rate keeps improving.

There is lots to criticize but letís all at least acknowledge the math.
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Old 01-17-2021, 12:38 PM   #643
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The US will soon be at the pace of vaccinating a million people a day and the daily rate keeps improving.

There is lots to criticize but let’s all at least acknowledge the math.
I want to be clear, I’m not criticizing the US rollout, I’m criticizing Kinsella’s inconsistent take. If it would take Canada ‘over a decade’ to vaccinate based on the time it took to get to 1% it would take the US over two years to vaccinate based on how long it’s taken them to get where they are. But he was using one metric for Canada and a different one for the US (and ignoring the other obvious comparable countries because their numbers are other very similar or noticeably worse). It’s just dishonest.
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Old 01-17-2021, 01:27 PM   #644
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Anyone bringing up Israel as a means to criticize virtually every other country in the world is being dishonest too. Israel's rollout is essentially a government run Phase 4 trial. In return for early doses, Pfizer gets to increase their profits by not having to pay to collect the data they need as part of Phase 4 studies, and a small centralized country with good data collection is ideal for that. Other small countries (Iceland and Denmark I believe) are also negotiating to do the same in return for early doses. That's not an option for most other places with larger, more spread out populations. To give a country like Germany or France enough doses early on to hit herd immunity rapidly would take 20-30x the doses that it would for a country like Iceland for instance; it's just not feasible for larger countries to do that.

And the same with people bringing up Bahrain or the UAE, where they're using non-peer reviewed vaccines.
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Old 01-17-2021, 05:01 PM   #645
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More vaccine added to albertas denominator- I think that was probably a late week moderna delivery? As percent given back below 90%

Over 100k doses (delivered)now in alberta and approaching 2000/100k given which isn’t quite equivalent to 2% of Albertans given that this now includes a small amount of 2nd doses

Last edited by looooob; 01-17-2021 at 05:21 PM.
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Old 01-17-2021, 05:51 PM   #646
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Canada has the issue of having limited access to vaccine supply and hasn't had the ability to scale up vaccination efforts.

The USA has a slightly different issue, they have been able to develop, manufacture and distribute tens of millions of doses of vaccine. Where they initially fell short was on the rollout and getting people jabbed. The goal was approx 20 million people before 2020 and 30 million people a month after that. Approx 1 million people a day.

The Biden administration is planning on 100 million people in 100 days. They have the general supply, what they don't have is the organization and the leadership at all levels to get this up and rolling in a wide spread fashion.

Canada for the first 4 months of rollout is just bad, brutal. It will get better and there are probably reasons for this and that is what the media and people like Kinsella are going after. We have our own vaccine production capabilities in Canada and there are other factors why we haven't.

We know the government keeps saying we have all these deals and all these doses but realistically how many jabs do we really need per person? Does anybody really expect a situation where certain vaccine candidates will be authorized by the FDA, EU, UK and others but won't in Canada?

We need to see what happened and why it happened so we can prevent it in the future. Even the most recent example of the EU getting their promised deliveries from Pfizer back on track after severe pushback. The EU got what they needed but Canada could not and we need to understand why that is.

We will get there but we also need to understand why the USA, UK and other G7 nations are beating us at this.
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Old 01-17-2021, 06:40 PM   #647
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But the G7 isn’t really beating us at this. Or the G20.

US and UK are. Italy ahead. Then us. Ahead of Germany. More than double France. Japan hasn’t even started vaccinations at all. We’re ahead of the EU average. On the higher end of the G20 table. We’re right in the ‘average to above-average’ zone of where we’d expect to be with comparable economies and standard of living.

The why is obvious; the biggest economic and industrial player is ahead, so that makes sense. UK pushed the AZ through while other countries are waiting for other data sets before approval, so they’re getting all that supply, but despite the numbers are still playing around with second doses of other vaccines. So the UK is ahead, but in a shaky way.

I get the desire to be better, but people are talking like we’re stuck at 1% while the rest of the developed world is on the road to herd immunity ready to re-open when we’re in the same position as most of them.

Last edited by Roughneck; 01-17-2021 at 06:42 PM.
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Old 01-17-2021, 07:10 PM   #648
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There are like 5 countries in the entire world that are ahead of Canada right now.

Israel, UAE, Bahrain. As others have pointed out, it is hard to compare countries the size of a city who are willing to pay, to a country like Canada. I'm sure we would have been willing to pay to skip the queue, but the problem becomes our demand is just would have been bigger than the queue a month ago, not a realistic path. Look at a place like PEI, where they have almost 3x the national vaccination rate, when you are starting with small numbers, it's a lot easier to hit higher percentages.

The UK is also using a much less effective vaccine than Canada and US for the most part, so while the might run ahead on speed of roll out, they might not be as far ahead on immunity.

I'm viewing the EU as one country, because they are acting as one country for buying this. and we are generally an above average EU country right now, Canada has 4 regions (including Alberta) that are ahead of every single EU country except for Denmark (on a one does / population basis).

These are difficult and competitive problems, Canada isn't going to run the table on all of them. I'm sure the EU will pull ahead of Canada at some point because of buying power, we can only hope that delivery schedules can get back on track in the next 3 weeks, and we can keep pace. But it's pretty pre-mature to say things are going brutal, maybe if they can't get deliveries back on track. t

Where did you expect Canada to be? Is 3rd/4th among big countries worse than you would have expected at this point?

It's also worth noting after a slightly slow start, Canada is having no issue getting vaccines into arms. Based on Canadas COVID tracker, we should have about 250,000 on hand and were able to administer 48,000 on Friday, so it should be taking us ~5 weekdays to use a vaccine on arrival. Which isn't surprising for a country with a well established public health system, but it's a good thing.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html
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Old 01-17-2021, 09:19 PM   #649
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Originally Posted by curves2000 View Post
Canada has the issue of having limited access to vaccine supply and hasn't had the ability to scale up vaccination efforts.

The USA has a slightly different issue, they have been able to develop, manufacture and distribute tens of millions of doses of vaccine. Where they initially fell short was on the rollout and getting people jabbed. The goal was approx 20 million people before 2020 and 30 million people a month after that. Approx 1 million people a day.

The Biden administration is planning on 100 million people in 100 days. They have the general supply, what they don't have is the organization and the leadership at all levels to get this up and rolling in a wide spread fashion.

Canada for the first 4 months of rollout is just bad, brutal. It will get better and there are probably reasons for this and that is what the media and people like Kinsella are going after. We have our own vaccine production capabilities in Canada and there are other factors why we haven't.

We know the government keeps saying we have all these deals and all these doses but realistically how many jabs do we really need per person? Does anybody really expect a situation where certain vaccine candidates will be authorized by the FDA, EU, UK and others but won't in Canada?

We need to see what happened and why it happened so we can prevent it in the future. Even the most recent example of the EU getting their promised deliveries from Pfizer back on track after severe pushback. The EU got what they needed but Canada could not and we need to understand why that is.

We will get there but we also need to understand why the USA, UK and other G7 nations are beating us at this.
It will be an epic failure if the US can't do way better than 100M in 100 days, unless supply is short. Already vaccinating over 1M a day (weekdays) and the machine hasn't started up yet.
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Old 01-17-2021, 11:13 PM   #650
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Yeah, the US will easily hit 100M in 100 days. Just with Pfizer and Moderna, they're looking like they'll be getting about 200M doses in that span, plus J&J has promised about 60M doses within that time (and possibly more from the AstraZeneca vaccine if that gets approved too). Given the supply they'll have, I think anything less than about 200M doses in that span would have be seen as a pretty big failure. Unless the 100M figure is supposed to mean 2 doses x 100M people? Then I'd say that's reasonable
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Old 01-18-2021, 12:25 PM   #651
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So the data out of Israel is that the single vaccine is not very effective, especially in the elderly. It takes two weeks to get immunity from the single vaccine, and the immunity among the elderly is only 33%.

Israel has started their rollout of second vaccinations with over 250k so far, but mostly among workers. The immunoresponse is looking as good or better than advertised, post dose #2, so far. Israel has started giving out immunity passports 1 week after a 2nd dose.

The only worry is that the elderly have not yet received their second doses in large numbers, so we don't know whether the immune response remains high in the elderly and the vaccine may not work as well on immunocompromised people.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel...-vaccine-dose/

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Two people did not develop antibodies, including one who is immunocompromised, Regev-Yochay said. There was no explanation for why the second person did not develop antibodies, and the hospital is investigating the matter, she said.
If the response in vulnerable groups is not good, then we could be waiting until we've attained herd immunity in the general population to protect them, which is a much longer process.
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Old 01-18-2021, 01:07 PM   #652
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Pfizer's trial had a fair number of elderly in it though, so I'd defer to that at this point over very incomplete Israeli data. 42% of the trial was over 55, 21% was over 65, and a little over 4% were over 75. And there was no evidence of reduced efficacy in older participants. At the interim analysis, there were 20 COVID positive subjects over 65 years old in the study and 19 of them were in the control arm. The confidence intervals were quite wide, so it's not 100% that it's just as effective in the elderly, but the evidence points to that.

And the efficacy numbers were quite consistent among comorbidities as well. Other than subjects who had cancer (which were a pretty small sample), subgroups who had one or more of the listed comorbidities (including cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension) all had efficacy point estimates of 93-100%. Again, the confidence intervals are wide, so it's obviously not settled, but the evidence points to there being little to no reduction in efficacy for people with other conditions.

The agreement linked from that article is interesting too. It is as people suspected; in return for providing doses to get the population to herd immunity as soon as possible, Pfizer gets the Israeli data without having to provide any funding for it. Pretty good deal for both parties.

https://govextra.gov.il/media/30806/...t-redacted.pdf
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Old 01-18-2021, 01:22 PM   #653
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Ontario pausing first dose immunizations.
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Old 01-18-2021, 01:50 PM   #654
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Pfizer's trial had a fair number of elderly in it though, so I'd defer to that at this point over very incomplete Israeli data. 42% of the trial was over 55, 21% was over 65, and a little over 4% were over 75. And there was no evidence of reduced efficacy in older participants. At the interim analysis, there were 20 COVID positive subjects over 65 years old in the study and 19 of them were in the control arm. The confidence intervals were quite wide, so it's not 100% that it's just as effective in the elderly, but the evidence points to that.

And the efficacy numbers were quite consistent among comorbidities as well. Other than subjects who had cancer (which were a pretty small sample), subgroups who had one or more of the listed comorbidities (including cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension) all had efficacy point estimates of 93-100%. Again, the confidence intervals are wide, so it's obviously not settled, but the evidence points to there being little to no reduction in efficacy for people with other conditions.

The agreement linked from that article is interesting too. It is as people suspected; in return for providing doses to get the population to herd immunity as soon as possible, Pfizer gets the Israeli data without having to provide any funding for it. Pretty good deal for both parties.

https://govextra.gov.il/media/30806/...t-redacted.pdf
The worry is that the real life data from Israel post 1st dose showed lower immunity in the elderly than the Pfizer data. Hopefully the same doesn't apply to does #2.
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Old 01-18-2021, 03:06 PM   #655
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The worry is that the real life data from Israel post 1st dose showed lower immunity in the elderly than the Pfizer data. Hopefully the same doesn't apply to does #2.
Yeah, but there are lot of issues with making that comparison at this point:

-the 33% figure is from one Israeli HMO; others show higher reductions in infections.

-it's unlikely that the Israeli data is properly randomized. If early vaccinations were weighted towards more susceptible people or in areas with higher infection rates, then you can't really make a direct comparison between the vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups.

-Also, unlike in clinical trials, the non-vaccinated people know they're not vaccinated, so that will influence their behavior. Yeah, the vaccinated people are supposed to realize that they're not fully protected until after their 2nd dose, but I've seen plenty of anecdotal evidence that people are making stupid decisions. I read an article the other day where they quoted a woman in BC who had just received her first dose the day before; she said that she was so excited because she was able to see her grandchildren for the first time in months later that day. And with the trial showing fairly good immunity a couple weeks after dose 1, I wouldn't be surprised if even some careful people let their guard down a week or two after getting vaccinated.

-it's not clear if the Israeli data was only symptomatic infections like Pfizer's trial was. If they were catching asymptomatic infections too, then that would make a comparison between their rates and the trial more difficult.

-I don't think the Pfizer data even tracked efficacy after 1 dose in different age cohorts, so we really have no idea what the immunity among elderly after 1 dose was.

So that is to say, I'd hold off worrying too much about efficacy right now, at least until there are a significant number of people who've received the full regimen.
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