Danny Green Sees East Van for First Time (Vancouver is No Good)

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Regent Park and Cabbagetown in Toronto are more scarier to walk through.

Definitely. There are places in Rexdale in Toronto too, where there is a legit threat of violence.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

In order to make any strategy work they need to curtail foreign investment. The amount of capital flooding into the country was enough to absorb all of the new condos. I'd like to see a few high profile enforcements of the new rules, where properties are actually confiscated from people trying to dodge the new rules.

Evidence that all new condos were being bought by foreign buyers?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Evidence that all new condos were being bought by foreign buyers?

About 20% of new condos are registered to non-residents, which is enough to heavily sleep the market in itself. The actual number, that would include proxy owners, is likely much higher, but we'll never actually know what that is.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

About 20% of new condos are registered to non-residents, which is enough to heavily sleep the market in itself. The actual number, that would include proxy owners, is likely much higher, but we'll never actually know what that is.

Where did you get this number?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Where did you get this number?

CBC news.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ures-1.4456657

I don't get why there's so much residence to recognizing this fact. It's also not just Vancouver. It was a global market phenomenom, where every hot real estate market in the world was hit with a massive surge of foreign investment from 2015-2018. That investment then dried up overnight when China cracked down on capital exports.

Vancouver saw housing prices rise dramatically. They've now fallen to 2016 levels, but are likely to go further. It was the same pattern in London, New York, Sydney, San Francisco, Seattle, Toronto, etc...

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

CBC news.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ures-1.4456657

I don't get why there's so much residence to recognizing this fact. It's also not just Vancouver. It was a global market phenomenom, where every hot real estate market in the world was hit with a massive surge of foreign investment from 2015-2018. That investment then dried up overnight when China cracked down on capital exports.

Vancouver saw housing prices rise dramatically. They've now fallen to 2016 levels, but are likely to go further. It was the same pattern in London, New York, Sydney, San Francisco, Seattle, Toronto, etc...

The resistance is that these aren't facts, and it's annoying when people who have no idea who's actually buying real estate make exaggerated statements that are incorrect and claim them to be "facts".

While what you're saying about Chinese capital is true, extrapolating it to statements like "The amount of capital flooding into the country was enough to absorb all of the new condos" is very misleading and non productive.

Even if the 20% was correct (which it's not); you've somehow stretched 20% to 100%
What about the other 80% of buyers?
What about the other areas of Metro Vancouver that are all under 9% in your link?

I guess what you meant to say was
The amount of capital flooding into the country was enough to absorb 2-20% of the new condos

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The resistance is that these aren't facts, and it's annoying when people who have no idea who's actually buying real estate make exaggerated statements that are incorrect and claim them to be "facts".

While what you're saying about Chinese capital is true, extrapolating it to statements like "The amount of capital flooding into the country was enough to absorb all of the new condos" is very misleading and non productive.

Even if the 20% was correct (which it's not); you've somehow stretched 20% to 100%
What about the other 80% of buyers?
What about the other areas of Metro Vancouver that are all under 9% in your link?

I guess what you meant to say was
The amount of capital flooding into the country was enough to absorb 2-20% of the new condos

It was likely much greater than 20%, as that number does not include proxies.

Reference to all, would be the number of available units. In a properly functioning real estate market 100% of new until do not get absorbed, there is typically a percentage of unsold units.

Also, even if it wasn't "all", 20% is more than enough to heavily skew a real estate market and put the homes out of reach for the vast majority of locals.0

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by blankall

It was likely much greater than 20%, as that number does not include proxies.

Nope, it's not greater than 20%.
In 90% of developments it's no where close to that number either.

Also, even if it wasn't "all", 20% is more than enough to heavily skew a real estate market and put the homes out of reach for the vast majority of locals.

Then just say that.
If you said up to 20% of new condos in certain areas of Metro Vancouver are being bought by foreign capital, and it's impacting overall affordability I wouldn't have had to respond to your post in the first place.
Don't think I've ever seen someone round 20% up to 100% before.

Also, majority of locals is a bold grouping too.
The other 80%+ of those new condos are being bought by locals who are in the market.
Some who have many decades of real estate gains and could equally be blamed affordability issues.
The real estate rich white guys like their equity too, it's not like every Vancouverite is blocked out of the market.

[jayswin]

^^^^^

But 20% is so significant. You're aggressively attacking the fact that he exaggerated 20% in a statement about Vancouver real estate being heavily inflated by foreign investment. Sure he could have just said 20% from the outset, but he did after and you're still going after it.

It almost makes you sound like you're a real estate agent in Vancouver, lol.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by jayswin

^^^^^

But 20% is so significant. You're aggressively attacking the fact that he exaggerated 20% in a statement about Vancouver real estate being heavily inflated by foreign investment. Sure he could have just said 20% from the outset, but he did after and you're still going after it.

It almost makes you sound like you're a real estate agent in Vancouver, lol.

It's more than 20%. As stated proxies are very common.

Also everyone knows that I wasn't referring to all the units. Obviously locals still bought some. Whatever excess until that ever built would likely been bought up by foreign buyers.

It's all a moot point now anyways. The Chinese government pulled the plug. Very few locals, even speculators, can afford $2 million for a teardown or $600k for a studio apartment. That's reflected in the current global real estate drop off, which happened at the same time as the Chinese capital crackdown.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by jayswin

^^^^^

But 20% is so significant. You're aggressively attacking the fact that he exaggerated 20% in a statement about Vancouver real estate being heavily inflated by foreign investment. Sure he could have just said 20% from the outset, but he did after and you're still going after it.

It almost makes you sound like you're a real estate agent in Vancouver, lol.

I'm not attacking the 20% number or the impact it has on our market, but it's important to look at actual numbers and not just hyperbole on the internet.

Foreign buying having a major impact on the Vancouver market is captain obvious stuff.

But if it's around 5% of the total metro Vancouver transactions (new and existing), and even 20% in peak product areas, there's a number of other pieces to the pie that must also be impacting the pricing which don't get talked about.

Foreign buyers get 99% of the narrative and blame, although that's only 1 part of the equation.
If anyone actually wants to find affordability solutions, you have to start with understanding the problem and not just reading guy on the internet complain about foreign buyers.

And yes, I am a real estate agent. Specifically one who specializes in the condo market and is an industry leader in working with new condo presales.
It's almost as if dealing with these developments for over a decade, seeing the purchaser lists and representing the buyers going into them may allow me to know who's actually buying them more than guy on the internet .

[Flash Walken]

Getting macro market advice from a realtor is like getting a medical diagnosis from a pharmaceutical sales rep.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

I'm not attacking the 20% number or the impact it has on our market, but it's important to look at actual numbers and not just hyperbole on the internet.

Foreign buying having a major impact on the Vancouver market is captain obvious stuff.

But if it's around 5% of the total metro Vancouver transactions (new and existing), and even 20% in peak product areas, there's a number of other pieces to the pie that must also be impacting the pricing which don't get talked about.

Foreign buyers get 99% of the narrative and blame, although that's only 1 part of the equation.
If anyone actually wants to find affordability solutions, you have to start with understanding the problem and not just reading guy on the internet complain about foreign buyers.

And yes, I am a real estate agent. Specifically one who specializes in the condo market and is an industry leader in working with new condo presales.
It's almost as if dealing with these developments for over a decade, seeing the purchaser lists and representing the buyers going into them may allow me to know who's actually buying them more than guy on the internet .

IMO, the issue is threefold:

1. Foreign investment.

2. Generational income equality.

3. Low interest rates/high household debt.

Basically something is going on that detached housing prices from local incomes. Vancouver will always be an expensive place to live, and as density rises, this will only get worse. However, when it gets to the point where people earning six figure incomes cannot afford entry level 1-bedroom condos, there are bigger factors at play.

While I think that foreign income is what drove real estate to the massive highs, there were also contributions through locals trying to keep up. This money is coming from:

i) baby-boomers who've stockpiled wealth via decades of taxation/monetary policy designed to allow them to do just that. They are buying housing as investments and for their children. This further erodes social mobility, as now only people with wealthy parents can get housing. And no, it's not fair, those people didn't "earn" the money. As stated, it was largely monetary policy and taxation rules that allowed them to accumulate it, pushing the bill down the road. Despite this access to wealth, many baby-boomers themselves remain highly in debt with no viable retirement plans; and

ii) generation X-ers/millennials who are doing their best to enter the market and borrowing far beyond what's safe. This is particularly true as younger people have virtually no job security.

Removing foreign investment should be the first step, as that is the easiest way to bring things down quickly. The interest rate issue is trickier, with Canada heading into a recession, but the stress test was a good start. People should never borrow to their max, and if it requires government intervention to get people to act rationally, then so be it.

Prices are actually already down as much as 40% in some segments, which is a good start. Things couldn't have kept on going the way they were. When you have entry level detached homes going for north of $2 million, there's a major problem that is going to lead to some kind of collapse, either now or in the future. Not to mention the swaths of empty homes, that were not contributing to the economy, but required all sorts of financial input from the economy to keep up the infrastructure around them. Overall, having your housing market tied to the the welfare of the Chinese economy is an absolutely horrible idea. The Chinese economy remains both corrupt and command driven.

To bring this back to the main topic, yes the housing issues is forcing many people onto the streets, as is the ghost town economy it creates. Everyone gets caught in this crisis, but those on the edge are very exposed to being pushed over. The housing/debt crisis has also resulted in other consumer goods, such as food, skyrocketing in price.

[peter12]

It's because there has been a politically-stifled supply response to ever-increasing demand for housing across the Lower Mainland.

This is a supply issue.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Getting macro market advice from a realtor is like getting a medical diagnosis from a pharmaceutical sales rep.

Much better to get it from an unqualified anon on a message board.

[nik-]

it might be

[blankall]

Originally Posted by peter12

It's because there has been a politically-stifled supply response to ever-increasing demand for housing across the Lower Mainland.

This is a supply issue.

This most certainly plays a big role too. Zoning in Vancouver is absurd and archaic. It also seems like very few building permits leak out, and always to the same developers.

The Agricultural Land Reserve doesn't help matters either. I get that they want to preserve the farming land, but a lot of the ALR isn't even being used as intended or at all. I'm sure there are other places than smack dab in the middle of metro-Vancouver that can be used for growing marijuana and setting up large family compounds.

All of that being said, Vancouver has increased supply dramatically. At one point they were facing near unlimited demand, with many units being left empty.

Both supply and demand need to be addressed.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Getting macro market advice from a realtor is like getting a medical diagnosis from a pharmaceutical sales rep.

burn!

The thousands of clients who have made hundreds of thousands to millions on my advice are happy with it.
The locals who are happily in the Vancouver market, who made property decisions despite what they read on whiny internet forums about it being impossible and an impending bubble burst.

You can't please internet forums unfortunately, but you can ignore it and make meaningful life decisions.

[nik-]

But is it a great time to buy?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by nik-

But is it a great time to buy?

It's always a great time to buy! (This advice is brought to you by the REBGV, BCREA and the CREA)