2021 NFL Season

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Then why don't coaches do it more?

This is terrible logic. You know that, right?

"The coaches disagree with the math. Hmmmm...it's the math that must be wrong!"

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This is terrible logic. You know that, right?

"The coaches disagree with the math. Hmmmm...it's the math that must be wrong!"

Real games aren't Madden fellas. The data is based on a variety of different games and teams of varying strengths and weaknesses. Just because the computer says I have a 60% chance of making that play based on years of accumulated game data, doesn't mean it applies to any particular game. That data is useful but as always situationsal.

• maybe I'm starting two backup offensive linemen
• my starting QB is not elite and his accuracy has been off all day
• my clutch receiver has a nagging leg injury and isn't at full speed
• my short yardage back is out of the game
• my opponent is a top 5 NFL defense today that's been causing issues for my offensive line
• etc.
• etc.

Every single NFL game played has its own unique circumstances and you just can't say that gambling on 4th down is right because and aggregate of different games says it's the right play otherwise we could just replace coaches with computers and have them spit out recommended plays like Madden.

You can take the make percentage of every 45 yard FG ever made and come out with odds of say 65% but that doesn't mean in your particular game that it's a 65% make because it could be outdoors, windy, and cold. Same applies to going for it on 4th down.

[Senator Clay Davis]

And yet you "very strongly believe" the Bills probably would have won if they kicked....ignoring the context of the game where the Titans were moving the ball at will in the second half, that the Bills defense was gassed, that the Titans had the timeouts to get a FG attempt in regulation, that the Bills might lose the toss and never see the ball in overtime, etc....

We all know stats on their own don't mean much. But in this context the choice was obvious: a first down very likely wins the game and a FG leaves it at a sub 50% chance. In general coaches in the NFL think avoiding worst case is better than trying to maximize best case. Thankfully that view is on it's way out, and it's part of why the NFL product is so good right now.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Real games aren't Madden fellas. The data is based on a variety of different games and teams of varying strengths and weaknesses. Just because the computer says I have a 60% chance of making that play based on years of accumulated game data, doesn't mean it applies to any particular game. That data is useful but as always situationsal.

Okay, but that's not what you said. You said the proof that it's not a good idea is because more NFL coaches don't do it, which in of itself is a logical fallacy (a couple actually).

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay, but that's not what you said. You said the proof that it's not a good idea is because more NFL coaches don't do it, which in of itself is a logical fallacy (a couple actually).

I think you need to give NFL head coaches a little more credit. Yes sometimes they make bad mistakes but most of them are the best in the world at their job and know what they are doing. While I feel most are still too conservative I totally understand why they just don't blindly follow statistical outcome models for important in-game decisions.

[devo22]

Whitney Mercilus to Green Bay, after being released by the Texans.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Rumor has it the Texans and Dolphins are at it in making a deal, with Deshaun Watson going to Miami.

Don’t have a source to post because they’re everywhere, from just these two trading and also rumors swirling around the idea of the Washington Football Team acquiring Tua Tagovailoa from the Dolphins, making this a potential 3-team blockbuster.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Not a huge shock, was always the logical landing spot since Ross is apparently giddy at the prospect of Deshaun. Although makes far more sense for the Texans to wait until the offseason so there will be a bidding war, unless the Dolphins are severely overpaying.

[devo22]

really curious what the Texans can get for him at this point. Very difficult to gauge his value ... wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole right now with all the uncertainty around him. Miami must be desperate.

[Senator Clay Davis]

How often does a top 5 QB ever become available? Unless you are convinced he is getting a lifetime ban he will be back, and, unseemly as this might be to suggest, given his current situation you might be able to lock him down for a well below market deal with an extension. It's a ruthless business, but it's the way it is.

[Nadal Fan]

Watson needs to be suspended pending an investigation or resolution into these allegations.

[transplant99]

A source told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler on Wednesday that Mercilus was signing with the Packers. It comes two weeks after the Packers signed former Dallas Cowboys linebacker Jaylon Smith, who made his Green Bay debut on Sunday against the Bears.

Mercilus, who was released by the Texans on Tuesday after spending 10 seasons with that franchise, turned down more money elsewhere to join Green Bay's defense, the source said.

GB is just decimated on D......not sure what he has left but will be better than whats still around.

[troutman]

Browns offence is battered too - no Chubb, no Hunt, both starting tackles out, OBJ and Landry hurt, Baker’s shoulder hanging by a thread.

[DoubleK]

I'm surprised they haven't shut Mayfield down for the year. A torn labrum is no joke. I get it's the non throwing shoulder, but still.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by devo22

really curious what the Texans can get for him at this point. Very difficult to gauge his value ... wouldn't touch him with a 10 ft pole right now with all the uncertainty around him. Miami must be desperate.

Rumour yesterday on NFL radio is 3 x 1st round picks and a quality starter. Used to be 3 x 1st round pick and 2 x 2nd round pick. They don't want Tua either which means a 3rd team may be required.

[devo22]

if Caserio can land 3 1sts and a starter at this point, then hats off to him. The Fins do have the Niners picks plus whatever they can get for Tua, so I guess they can do this without it hurting them longtime. Still risky.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Seeing as the leaks about this are coming exclusively from Texans reporters there is also the very distinct possibility the Texans are putting this out there trying to drum up interest with the trade deadline two weeks away. I still can't imagine anyone trading serious value for a guy who is still in limbo. I know the Dolphins are desperate, but unless Ross orders this the GM/coach making the trade could in theory trade for a guy they never get to see on the field as they are likely gone after this year.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

We all know stats on their own don't mean much. But in this context the choice was obvious: a first down very likely wins the game and a FG leaves it at a sub 50% chance. In general coaches in the NFL think avoiding worst case is better than trying to maximize best case. Thankfully that view is on it's way out, and it's part of why the NFL product is so good right now.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think you need to give NFL head coaches a little more credit. Yes sometimes they make bad mistakes but most of them are the best in the world at their job and know what they are doing. While I feel most are still too conservative I totally understand why they just don't blindly follow statistical outcome models for important in-game decisions.

NFL coaches don't play to win, they play not to lose. And more importantly their decisions are often influenced in what can be thrown back at them if things don't work out. I hate it and Senator Clay Davis is hopefully right in that mindset is on the way out.

[rubecube]

Congress getting involved in the WFT email scandal.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...email-scandal/

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Congress getting involved in the WFT email scandal.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...email-scandal/

This is going to be a death knell for some.

Guaranteed.