National Post article about Biden accidentally calling Trump "George". Looks like he has dementia everybody, election is over! The article is filled with Trump campaign quotes and tweets.
This is considered news in this country? God help us all.
This dumb woman interviewing Joe Biden is ####ing ######ed. Half her questions are “Donald trump says...” like stfu and ask some good questions.
Joe: I’d like to get rid of Trumps tax cuts on Americans making over $400k/yr.
Stupid woman: do you really think it’s a good idea to raise taxes on hardworking Americans during an economic crisis though?
Jesus Christ woman are you listening?
Even the Trump questions were bad. These are embarrassingly oversimplified tabloid questions.
She got her current job (primarily, anchor of the CBS evening news) because of the “me too” movement and the (new) head of CBS wanting a woman in that job.
The previous anchor, Jeff Glor, was much better in my view and the current occupant isn’t particularly good in my view.
For those hoping for some clarity in Texas polling there have actually been three polls released today.
NYT/Siena is the only live caller poll, and it has Trump leading by 4, 47-43, with support among rural white voters strong enough to outweigh Biden’s strength in urban and suburban areas and among non-white voters.
One note that may not be more than “interesting” is that Biden leads by 7 among those who have already voted, which is half the likely electorate. Expect that to be narrowed and then overcome by Republicans voting on Election Day, but lower than expected e-day turnout could throw a wrench into this. Importantly the current vote total is actually 80% of total turnout so Siena is modeling a huge increase in overall turnout including from heavily rural and republican areas. I don’t know the demographics that well, but are there enough rural white voters in Texas for that to happen? Some rural Texas counties had like 2000 voters in 2016....
Meanwhile YouGov has Trump up 5 and Data for Progress has Biden up 1. So... pick the one you like I guess? Based on the averages and the prior history my current guess is this is “close but no cigar” for Democrats in Texas, and if Biden’s internals are showing the same thing that may be why Democrats have not spent a ton of money or resources here (though Kamala Harris is making a campaign stop on Friday.)
I watched the Showtime miniseries “The Comey Rule” this week. It’s not must see tv, but it isn’t as bad as thought it would be.
One thing that’s quite obvious watching it is that Trump is going to lose this election.
The 2016 campaign is acknowledged as being a gigantic #### show. But I had forgetter now chaotic it was. And as close as the race was, the FBI’s handling of the email investigation was enough to give people who didn’t trust Hillary a reason to vote Trump.
This campaign is the exact opposite. It’s been boring and consistent since it started. Biden is not under investigation, Christopher Wray has done nothing to repeat James Comey’s mistakes with the Hunter Biden bull####, and the attacks on Biden are not doing any damage whatsoever. The more Trump talks, the less people like him.
The entire perfect storm that was required for him to win in 2016 is not present in 2020. 200k people are dead, he got the damn virus himself and still doesn’t give a damn about stopping it.
The first rule of politics is never let a crisis go to waste - Trump wasted Covid, and thus his presidency is going to end after one term next week.
Finish him, Joe.
__________________
Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
I watched the Showtime miniseries “The Comey Rule” this week. It’s not must see tv, but it isn’t as bad as thought it would be.
One thing that’s quite obvious watching it is that Trump is going to lose this election.
The 2016 campaign is acknowledged as being a gigantic #### show. But I had forgetter now chaotic it was. And as close as the race was, the FBI’s handling of the email investigation was enough to give people who didn’t trust Hillary a reason to vote Trump.
This campaign is the exact opposite. It’s been boring and consistent since it started. Biden is not under investigation, Christopher Wray has done nothing to repeat James Comey’s mistakes with the Hunter Biden bull####, and the attacks on Biden are not doing any damage whatsoever. The more Trump talks, the less people like him.
The entire perfect storm that was required for him to win in 2016 is not present in 2020. 200k people are dead, he got the damn virus himself and still doesn’t give a damn about stopping it.
The first rule of politics is never let a crisis go to waste - Trump wasted Covid, and thus his presidency is going to end after one term next week.
Finish him, Joe.
It’s pretty wild how we’re basically in a perfect storm again, but for him to lose. It’s the kind of thing you’d see in a time travelling movie. “Okay we need you to go back with this virus and save American democracy”.
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For those hoping for some clarity in Texas polling there have actually been three polls released today.
NYT/Siena is the only live caller poll, and it has Trump leading by 4, 47-43, with support among rural white voters strong enough to outweigh Biden’s strength in urban and suburban areas and among non-white voters.
One note that may not be more than “interesting” is that Biden leads by 7 among those who have already voted, which is half the likely electorate. Expect that to be narrowed and then overcome by Republicans voting on Election Day, but lower than expected e-day turnout could throw a wrench into this. Importantly the current vote total is actually 80% of total turnout so Siena is modeling a huge increase in overall turnout including from heavily rural and republican areas. I don’t know the demographics that well, but are there enough rural white voters in Texas for that to happen? Some rural Texas counties had like 2000 voters in 2016....
Meanwhile YouGov has Trump up 5 and Data for Progress has Biden up 1. So... pick the one you like I guess? Based on the averages and the prior history my current guess is this is “close but no cigar” for Democrats in Texas, and if Biden’s internals are showing the same thing that may be why Democrats have not spent a ton of money or resources here (though Kamala Harris is making a campaign stop on Friday.)
And in the Senate race, Siena has Cornyn up by 10 but Data For Progress only has him up by 2.
This dumb woman interviewing Joe Biden is ####ing ######ed. Half her questions are “Donald trump says...” like stfu and ask some good questions.
Joe: I’d like to get rid of Trumps tax cuts on Americans making over $400k/yr.
Stupid woman: do you really think it’s a good idea to raise taxes on hardworking Americans during an economic crisis though?
Jesus Christ woman are you listening?
Even the Trump questions were bad. These are embarrassingly oversimplified tabloid questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate
She got her current job (primarily, anchor of the CBS evening news) because of the “me too” movement and the (new) head of CBS wanting a woman in that job.
The previous anchor, Jeff Glor, was much better in my view and the current occupant isn’t particularly good in my view.
Regardless of whether your claim is true, and now that I’ve been quoted it’s too late, but I’d like to go back and change my original post. The sex of the interviewer isn’t relevant, just the bad quality of questions matters.
That’s some unintentional sexism on my part. I’m not bashing her because she’s a woman, just because her questions sucked.
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It’s pretty wild how we’re basically in a perfect storm again, but for him to lose. It’s the kind of thing you’d see in a time travelling movie. “Okay we need you to go back with this virus and save American democracy”.
You’re right - without Covid, this election is likely just as stupid as the last one.
__________________
Mom and Dad love you, Rowan - February 15, 2024
National Post article about Biden accidentally calling Trump "George". Looks like he has dementia everybody, election is over! The article is filled with Trump campaign quotes and tweets.
This is considered news in this country? God help us all.
All I have to remember is that he called Tim Cook "Tim Apple" and I know his already-empty panging rings even more hollow.
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You’re right - without Covid, this election is likely just as stupid as the last one.
I don't know. The 2018 election showed a lot of states turning back on Trump and I think they'd mostly carry over to 2020.
COVID didn't have to hurt Trump. If he would have handled it somewhat responsibly, it could have boosted his popularity. Instead he politicized it by saying it was just a fake virus that the fake media and democrats are using to hurt him.
And in the Senate race, Siena has Cornyn up by 10 but Data For Progress only has him up by 2.
Yeah it’s hard to know what to do with that. Data for Progress is, I believe (?) a left-leaning independent firm and their poll was IVR (not live callers). It gets a B+ from 538 so we can’t toss it in the round file but it’s not up to the loftier standards of NYT/Siena.
On the other hand, Siena had McSally winning Arizona in 2018 and underestimated Beto O’Rourke’s vote share by 4.4% that same year which suggests their model may struggle in a higher-than-expected turnout year. But turnout is high everywhere in Texas, not just in urban/suburban areas, so....
I don’t know. Just average them all I guess. That would give you a narrow Trump lead, I think (1.4% per 538).
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I don't know. The 2018 election showed a lot of states turning back on Trump and I think they'd mostly carry over to 2020.
COVID didn't have to hurt Trump. If he would have handled it somewhat responsibly, it could have boosted his popularity. Instead he politicized it by saying it was just a fake virus that the fake media and democrats are using to hurt him.
In fact, thinking about this more, COVID could have been the crisis he could have used to turn things around for his popularity.
His popularity at the beginning of the year is about the same as it is now. He peaked in popularity by end of March when he was having daily conferences with Fauci and letting the experts talk.
He sank himself when he started breaking with the experts, shutting down dr Fauci, taking over the press conferences to stay stupid things, etc. All because he thought the virus was threatening his stock market, and that Fauci was taking over his spotlight.
Seems like Trump's campaign strategy down the stretch is to just hold MAGA rallies every couple of days until Nov. 3rd. And of course nobody is wearing a mask or social distancing at any of these things. That's a whole lotta Covid being spread around.
They are already well into operation herd mentality
We're at a point that we have to be very careful about the polls and really dig into them to understand how they have come up with their numbers. For example, I just reviewed the latest data that came out showing Trump and McSally leading in Arizona, which is contrary to the past few weeks of polling. So into the details of the poll I went and sure enough, the pollster over-sampled one population and under-sampled another. Polls have to reflect the actual makeup of the populations they trying to represent, and when you over-sample one population you taint your data. You need to normalize the data and this step was not done. After normalizing the data the results changed and was more reflective of the other polls. So be careful what polls you pick, look at the data, and determine if they are reflective of the communities they are trying to represent. This is why Nate Silver rates pollsters. Some do the actual work to normalize data while others intentionally over-sample certain populations and create inconsistent data. Rassmussen and Trafalgar are terrible for over-sampling so their numbers are questionable. Susquehanna have gone this direction this cycle as well.
Honestly asking for your opinion (since you know intimately how US elections work) on the points the Trump campaign are raising here.
Is there any truth to notion that the Trump ground game is better than Biden. Is Trump just flooding the zone with these types of stories to get his base out or is there something to the 'hard to reach voter' who isn't represented in the polls?
Please don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to pump Trump at all but I read this and wonder what he is up to
Quote:
Trump campaign tells reporters they're confident the President will win battleground states
From CNN's Daniella Diaz, DJ Judd and Ryan Nobles
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, senior adviser Jason Miller and communications director Tim Murtaugh just held a press call with reporters where they said they are confident the President is growing his base and will be able to win battleground states on Election Day.
The campaign distanced themselves from the current poll numbers, with Stepien telling reporters: “Polls always mattered to some but they mattered less these days because more and more actual votes have been cast every single day.”
He later added: “Ground game matters — in state after state, we can see the result of President Trump's grassroots operation, which is simply the best that's ever been built. When we analyze the returns and the vote totals in these states, we continue to see positive trends every single day."
Stepian said the campaign "expected" that Democrats would take an early lead in the absentee voting period and believe that gap is being "eaten up."
"Early leads, built by Democrats in the absentee voting period, we know that, we've seen that, we expected that, it still drew a lot of attention by those who cover these races, but more importantly, every single day we see that early lead that the Democrats once had eaten up as they leave absentee votes on the table because they don't have a ground game to draw those votes and turn those ballots into actual votes.”
Stepien said that Trump "is expanding his base and turning out brand new voters."
Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller then joined the call, where he touted an additional $6 million in ads, in addition to the $55 million, two-week buy announced last week, “focused, largely on, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” adding, “We'll also be adding on to our buy in Minnesota.”
Last edited by Jeff Lebowski; 10-26-2020 at 01:18 PM.
Honestly asking for your opinion (since you know intimately how US elections work) on the points the Trump campaign are raising here.
Is there any truth to notion that the Trump ground game is better than Biden. Is Trump just flooding the zone with these types of stories to get his base out or is there something to the 'hard to reach voter' who isn't represented in the polls?
Please don't misunderstand - I'm not trying to pump Trump at all but I read this and wonder what he is up to
New Era would know better, but sounds to me like the usual Trump tactic of claiming everything is great even when they know it's not.
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I’m personally not a believer in the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon. There is some truth to the idea that less well educated and more rural types are less likely to answer polling phone calls but that only matters if they are not likely to vote similarly to people who are in similar demographic and geographical groups (such that this can be addressed through demographic weighting of the sample). Similar problems occur in the sub belt actually where polls can underestimate Democratic support by not reaching enough Latino/a voters.
With that said, yes—ground game matters. But the evidence right now is that the Democrats have a superior ground game, or perhaps a more motivated base (or both). If the ground game Stepien is touting is so great why aren’t more republicans turning out to vote early in person?
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Personally I don't believe a single word that comes out of the Trump camp, particularly lackeys like Jason Miller and Bill Stepien. There's no way in hell that Trump has expanded his base. If anything, his base has probably shrunk over the last 4 years, and I highly doubt he's winning over any undecideds with only 8 days to go.
I'm sure there will be a surge of GOP supporters voting in person on Nov. 3rd, which is expected. But will it be enough? Trump barely squeaked out the win in 2016 by a mere 77,000 votes in a perfect storm of unfortunate events, mostly due to Comey reopening the Clinton email investigation a week before the election. Trump basically needs an exact repeat of 2016 to win, and I honestly don't see it happening this time.
Then again, with the amount of cheating and voter suppression/intimidation currently being conducted by the GOP, a Trump victory is still possible. Especially with the Supreme Court in his back pocket.
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