Origin of the Coronavirus

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GGG

Yeah that’s why I agree the epidemiological evidence is the strongest piece in favour of natural emergence. It does not appear that the pattern of release is well explained by lab release.



Was that somewhere in the video you linked or is there a good source as to why the gain of function research argument isn’t valid?

Sorry. Misunderstood your post

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[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

That 4% difference is 1200 base pairs different (Coronavirus genome is ~30,000 base pairs). Genetic engineering didn't happen here as no technology exists to make 1200 manipulations. Which comes to the "evolution from a cell line" as Wade suggests. This particular virus has unique sugar fixing sites which gives it an ability to evade some immune attack. Cell lines don't have an immune system, which suggests this was gained through natural selection. There's more in this link

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7539923/

It's also important to keep in mind that this is all in reference (the 96%) stuff to the only baseline viral sample known from this lab, but there's a story out in Vanity Fair about this with this tidbit.

On February 3, 2020, with the COVID-19 outbreak already spreading beyond China, Shi Zhengli and several colleagues published a paper noting that the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s genetic code was almost 80% identical to that of SARS-CoV, which caused the 2002 outbreak. But they also reported that it was 96.2% identical to a coronavirus sequence in their possession called RaTG13, which was previously detected in “Yunnan province.” They concluded that RaTG13 was the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2.

In the following months, as researchers around the world hunted for any known bat virus that might be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, Shi Zhengli offered shifting and sometimes contradictory accounts of where RaTG13 had come from and when it was fully sequenced. Searching a publicly available library of genetic sequences, several teams, including a group of DRASTIC researchers, soon realized that RaTG13 appeared identical to RaBtCoV/4991—the virus from the cave where the miners fell ill in 2012 with what looked like COVID-19.

In July, as questions mounted, Shi Zhengli told Science magazine that her lab had renamed the sample for clarity. But to skeptics, the renaming exercise looked like an effort to hide the sample’s connection to the Mojiang mine.

Their questions multiplied the following month when Shi, Daszak, and their colleagues published an account of 630 novel coronaviruses they had sampled between 2010 and 2015. Combing through the supplementary data, DRASTIC researchers were stunned to find eight more viruses from the Mojiang mine that were closely related to RaTG13 but had not been flagged in the account. Alina Chan of the Broad Institute said it was “mind-boggling” that these crucial puzzle pieces had been buried without comment.

So apparently there were other viruses in storage that could have been even more similar to COVID than 96%.

Yes they got extremely lucky and found a few civets that had the virus (think about how lucky that was considering a virus doesn't stay around long in a host after the host recovers). However, scientists knew the civets were not the source as the genome was unlike any other civet viruses and very similar to coronaviruses in bats. The civet was the vessel that brought the virus to humans as humans don't interact with bats much. The cave containing the likely bats that the virus originated from was found in 2017 - 14 years after 2003.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

They didn't get lucky finding it in the civets though, they found them in the exact market where the outbreak started. It took them longer to find the bats, but so what? The point is there was still early evidence of natural links the way you would expect. That doesn't exist for this virus. It's kind of misleading to say it took over a decade to find evidence for SARS, it took that long to work everything out and get as close to an answer as possible but there was early evidence right away.

It's harmful because a) anti-asian sentiment is already on the rise, b) we're in a super heated political environment and all the "evidence" is basically mudslinging, and c) we need the Chinese to work with us more, not less. It's estimated an average of one person is infected with a novel bat coronavirus EVERY DAY. The next pandemic could be coming any time. Shouldn't we be working more together? How does an accusation without any data behind it help?

I really don't see what anti-asian sentiment has to do with anything. That is not a good reason to look into a perfectly valid theory, that some idiots somewhere might use it as an excuse to be racist. That's a terrible standard. Besides, I don't see how the lab leak would be any more of an excuse for racists to be racist than the wet market theory which requires people eating exotic animals in unsanitary conditions. I would love the Chinese to work with us more but every step along the way they've lied and obfuscated so despite what I want to have happen I don't think it's in the cards. If this investigation hurts the CCP's feelings then it's tough beans, they could have diffused this in an instant by allowing a transparent look at their full viral databases but they didn't. And if we're worried about the next pandemic I'd suggest we should also be worried about these labs that purposefully manipulate viruses to make them more infectious. What matters is the truth, and respectfully these non-scientific reasons to not give this theory weight should not be taken into account at all. In my opinion. How anyone could trust the Chinese government after all we've seen this year is beyond me.

No. That's not how this works. You can't prove the absence of something. How do I prove that? I'll let the above do the talking. You keep referring to this mountain but not one piece of the theory has held water.

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Yes the mountain of circumstantial evidence. The lab in the city. Where they studied these exact type of viruses. Where they had been flagged by the US government for lax safety standards in 2018. Where three researchers got sick in the early days of the pandemic. Versus.....literally nothing to explain how or what or where this virus exploded into view naturally. That is what I'm referring to. All the nitty gritty virology stuff is interesting and in my view, not conclusive of either theory. It could have been conclusive if the Chinese government had let it be so, but they didn't so it's not. You can't prove the absence of something but there's no absence here, its the presence of a virus that somehow burst on to the scene with low genetic diversity ready to infect humans with no natural trace, right in the middle of the one city in China that was researching it's family. The only way you could throw all of that away is if you thought that there was conclusive, no doubt, 100% signature of natural origin. So maybe you do think that, from what I've read it's not conclusive though, and we're stuck with a pretty big coincidence here.

[GGG]

If they found Bat viruses in Civits near a virology lab wouldn’t the lab leak theory become the bat virus from the lab infected the civits and then jumped to humans?

[Firebot]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...erts-1.6059097

So it's now being revealed that the case of the 2 scientists fired at the Winnipeg lab who sent the ebola virus to the Wuhan lab were most likely spies (can't name the origin of the country of who they were spying for as that is considered racist)

Qiu and Cheng were last publicly seen at a memorial service for Dr. Frank Plummer, the former head of the national lab who died in February 2020.

They have never been reached for comment, despite visits to their two Winnipeg homes. Neighbours say they haven't seen the couple at their primary residence for months. The second home is a rental property. Former co-workers say Qiu has also bragged about owning a mansion in China.

Nothing all related to covid-19's origin of course, just some good old fashioned espionage by the CCP in a Level 4 lab with deadly viruses dubiously sent to the same lab where a novel coronavirus mysteriously appeared in a wet market 20 km away in the same time frame. Totally unrelated espionage on what the US considers a category A and C bioterrorism agents, I assure you.

At the time, sources told CBC News several computers had been seized, a lab log book was missing and Qiu's regular trips to China were suspended.

Of course we cannot speculate on what was else provided to the Wuhan Lab institute behind the scenes secretly or the reasons why. It's purely normal to spy and for lab data on deadly bioterrorism agents to go missing. Totally unrelated to those silly conspiracy nut lab theories. They were bad apples, and the only 2 spies that infiltrated a level 4 virology lab, nowhere else. We caught them all.

Nothing to see here folks. Wet market is the source as stated by the officials from that same country that may have been caught spying on a Level 4 virology lab. Everything is fine.

[GGG]

Why does spying on a stage 4 virology lab increase the likelihood of Lab Escape?

Also it appears that Canada sent the Ebola samples to Wuhan intentionally and were cooperating in research. Not to say they weren’t spies but it appears we were willingly sharing information and samples.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why does spying on a stage 4 virology lab increase the likelihood of Lab Escape?

Nothing at all. Just good old fashioned bio espionage on bioterrorism agents. Happens all the time in stage 4 virology labs!

It's not about correlation, both incident are separate and a lab accident (as shown with SARS twice in Beijing) could have easily occurred regardless. What this does show is that the Wuhan lab may not be as pure as portrayed, and is likely to be heavily influenced by the military and government, undermining their credibility.

Also it appears that Canada sent the Ebola samples to Wuhan intentionally and were cooperating in research. Not to say they weren’t spies but it appears we were willingly sharing information and samples.

You understand that the request for the ebola samples came from the Wuhan lab, and was accepted and handled very directly by 2 scientists suspended just 2 months later, later fired and revealed to be spies right? And that the suspicions of nefarious activity was so high that their computers were seized, trips to China were suspended, and that a lab log book was missing? All this half a year before we ever heard of a novel coronavirus and the panic this pandemic caused?

This type of action doesn't happen because they didn't follow a procedure or did a booboo.

They clearly got fired for a very good reason but they were never charged, the last thing that Canada would have done in mid 2019 would have been to cause an international incident against China of all countries at that particular time. Remember the Michaels?

All we know is what has been allowed to be provided to us, with everything else being confidential. What did they do that caused 2 foreign scientists to have their computers seized and trips suspended? What other information or data may have been provided along with the shipment of the virus or on the frequent trips to China that were never meant to be shared?

So you have espionage uncovered, Wuhan lab clearly being complicit (would you think there was no espionage liaison in communication with the 2 spies?).

Yet we take Wuhan lab scientists accounts for face value that there was no gain of function research on coronavirus, that the virus originated from a wet market next door, the same facility that may have facilitated espionage on bioterrorism agents for still unknown reasons?

We just had two foreign scientists provide the ebola virus to Wuhan and caught as spies within 2 months of doing so.

And there's nothing alarming about this?

Again, I still think there's a lab accident that occurred, but The US is fully investigating the lab leak theory, Canada had Chinese spies within its ranks at the level 4 virology lab.

Where there's a growing amount of smoke, there's fire.

[GGG]

PHAC has continually stated the Ebola transfer and the firing are unrelated but that is really beside the point.

Whether or not the Wuhan lab does Chinese government or military funded research or not doesn’t really change the likelihood of whether or not lab leak is true. The incentive and ability to cover it up is unchanged. The likelihood of a virus to escape is unchanged.

The other thing to consider if you are concerned or surprised about spies is the US has intelligence reports it’s investigating in regards to lab leak theories. These obviously are coming from intelligence assets. So does it concern you that the US has spies within a level four Bio lab?

[Street Pharmacist]

Chinese scientists fired from a lab in Canada 6 months before the first known mention of a novel coronavirus is now more "smoke". I legitimately cannot even follow these dots anymore

[opendoor]

Is there actually any new information about those people, or is it really just two academics speculating that they might be spies based on publicly available information?

In other news, it looks like David Baltimore has walked back his "smoking gun" comment about the furin cleavage site that was quoted in the Wade article. Now he says he regrets using that phrase and simply says he "wouldn't rule out either origin".

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ab-leak-theory

[Street Pharmacist]

Anyways, for those like me that like to be skeptical of connecting 15 different dots with no data, here's some good reporting on the "lab leak" controversy:


http://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-...ov-2-revisited

And

http://www.latimes.com/business/stor...k-covid-origin


The evidence for the "lab leak" theory in its entirety, is China as a state actor lies (true), WIH is located in the same city the outbreak is likely to have occurred (true), and "gain of function" work on these coronaviruses was being done (not proven). The rest is complete bunk.

1) "The Furin site isn't seen on other betacoronaviruses" - yes it is

2) "there were sequences of nucleic acids that lead to four positively charged amino acids and that doesn't happen twice in a row nevermind four times in a row in nature" - 33% of the entire human genome would disagree

3) the lack of animal host is still a dumb sticking point. Ebola was discovered in 1976 and we still don't have an animal host. SARS took 14 years. I get the "they found the civets!" argument, but a) is you got SARS you ended up in hospital so contract tracing was easy, and b) they found some animals because the people all ending up in hospital at first almost exclusively worked with animals. That wasn't the case here because for every person in hospital there were likely 20 that never showed symptoms, 30 that barely had symptoms, and 40% that had normal seasonal flu like symptoms. How do you contact trace that?

4) "Three lab workers sought treatment for respiratory symptoms" - OK. During flu season. Out of hundreds of other workers. They didn't have antibodies for SARS Cov2. No one else was sick then, but to have 3 severely ill people, wouldn't you have to have dozens, if not hundreds more less sick people? And if those 3 were the origin, what are the chances that they got so sick when most people don't get that sick?

Where's this mountain? I keep getting references to it, but I still don't see it.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

This entire thread could be resolved with a prodigious use of Occam's Razor.

I don't want to entirely rule OUT a lab leak, but the far more likely explanation is an emergent virus through natural evolution and animal crossover. It happens frequently throughout history. Also, evolution is far more powerful than the average person understands, and often creates unique features that allow for survival (even though viruses aren't alive, they do use the same mechanisms for survival that living things do).

I guess it's less sexy to believe in a natural origin coming from animals. It's also less actionable, meaning there's nothing practical we can do to prevent it, nor is there anyone to blame for this.

Nature can sometimes be quite chaotic, and this is just another example of it. Unfortunately, humans have decided long ago that we can control every aspect of nature, but the reality is that we can only manage so much with our technologies and knowledge. Nature will still create chaos for us sometimes. It's just the way things are, and sometimes, there's nobody to blame for the bad things that happen in our lives, but humans are bad at rationalizing that. "Someone must be blamed!" *sigh*

[#-3]

I think accidental lab leak of wild sample seems just as likely as wild exposure to me.

First you are looking at a more complicated chain of events, but more direct risk of exposure. The later you are looking at a simpler chain of events, but you don't have people actively chasing virus's down and interacting with them.

The other two options (engineered and deliberate release) seem ridiculous and shouldn't really be given any credence baring direct evidence.

It's a useful question, but I'm not sure that you will ever know, and I don't think it's worth while drawing any direct conclusions or making accusations without definitive answers.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This entire thread could be resolved with a prodigious use of Occam's Razor.

I don't want to entirely rule OUT a lab leak, but the far more likely explanation is an emergent virus through natural evolution and animal crossover. It happens frequently throughout history. Also, evolution is far more powerful than the average person understands, and often creates unique features that allow for survival (even though viruses aren't alive, they do use the same mechanisms for survival that living things do).

I guess it's less sexy to believe in a natural origin coming from animals. It's also less actionable, meaning there's nothing practical we can do to prevent it, nor is there anyone to blame for this.

Nature can sometimes be quite chaotic, and this is just another example of it. Unfortunately, humans have decided long ago that we can control every aspect of nature, but the reality is that we can only manage so much with our technologies and knowledge. Nature will still create chaos for us sometimes. It's just the way things are, and sometimes, there's nobody to blame for the bad things that happen in our lives, but humans are bad at rationalizing that. "Someone must be blamed!" *sigh*

It would be an incredible coincidence if the virus showed up naturally in the same vicinity of a level 4 lab.

According to the washington post article which sites reputable sources and some of them the department of defence, a lab leak is what appears to be the cause.

Chinese government cover ups and guano collection in mines in 2012 where covid samples were first found is in my opinion a strong indicator that something at the lab was up.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wash...outputType=amp

[GGG]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

It would be an incredible coincidence if the virus showed up naturally in the same vicinity of a level 4 lab.

According to the washington post article which sites reputable sources and some of them the department of defence, a lab leak is what appears to be the cause.

Chinese government cover ups and guano collection in mines in 2012 where covid samples were first found is in my opinion a strong indicator that something at the lab was up.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wash...outputType=amp

So how do you explain that their were 3 hospitalizations which suggests at least 50 cases at that point in time with the rate of Covid spread around the world and in Wuhan?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

It would be an incredible coincidence if the virus showed up naturally in the same vicinity of a level 4 lab.

According to the washington post article which sites reputable sources and some of them the department of defence, a lab leak is what appears to be the cause.

Chinese government cover ups and guano collection in mines in 2012 where covid samples were first found is in my opinion a strong indicator that something at the lab was up.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wash...outputType=amp

The miners were either infected with some still unknown virus, or had histoplasmosis (which is very common When dealing with guano). Samples from some of these miners were negative for SARS Cov2 as well as many other similar viruses

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2951-z


That Washington Post article provides only a timeline of everything we've already discussed. The most frequently cited person in there is... US Sen Tom Cotton. The virology "clues" and the "smoking gun" in there were already completely debunked. I read the entire article and still don't see a single piece of evidence beyond "the outbreak was close to the WIV"

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

So how do you explain that their were 3 hospitalizations which suggests at least 50 cases at that point in time with the rate of Covid spread around the world and in Wuhan?

One thing to consider is how the medical system in Wuhan (and the rest of China) is set up. When people in North America or Europe hear "sought hospital care" we automatically assume something serious, but that's not really the case in China. Community Health Center clinics (roughly equivalent to our non-hospital health care) are a pretty new phenomenon there and the quality of care in them can be spotty. As a result, many people (particularly in cities with excellent hospitals) opt to get their primary care at hospitals. So unless I've missed something that has revealed the seriousness of the illnesses, it's conceivable that those 3 cases were essentially people going to a walk-in clinic.

Of course if that's true, it makes the fact that 3 people from a large facility sought treatment for influenza like illness in all of November even less exceptional.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

It would be an incredible coincidence if the virus showed up naturally in the same vicinity of a level 4 lab.

Or the lab is there because thats where wild corona viruses ready to jump to humans exist?

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by #-3

Or the lab is there because thats where wild corona viruses ready to jump to humans exist?

Sure, they built a lab in the middle of China a 100's of miles where these bats live because it should be where their viruses would jump to humans...makes sense to me!

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Sure, they built a lab in the middle of China a 100's of miles where these bats live because it should be where their viruses would jump to humans...makes sense to me!

Most people aren’t that naive. The virology lab was built in Winnipeg because that’s close to where most virus’s originate in Canada? I’m sure cost and safety play much more of a factor than proximity to viruses.

I haven’t heard of many lab’s in east africa where the ebola virus originated.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Most people aren’t that naive. The virology lab was built in Winnipeg because that’s close to where most virus’s originate in Canada? I’m sure cost and safety play much more of a factor than proximity to viruses.

I haven’t heard of many lab’s in east africa where the ebola virus originated.

You build a virology lab where is safe, but also where you're still going to be able to attract talent. You don't build it in a total area near bats because employment is a harder sell