Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Case in point why she should not be the leader of our province.

She cites environmental issues and concerns by the Native communities on Northern Gateway and why she wouldn't fight for it. The same issues have come up with Kinder Morgan and suddenly her opinion changes.

She doesn't support Keystone because of jobs going south but now with the price of oil so low and a need to get our product to market her opinion again changes.

I would love to hear Notley give an explanation on both.

[Shazam]

WCS differential is only $6 now, obviously NDP policy has been working.

[RedHot25]

Ummm...

@LukaszukAB
⁦.@jkenney⁩ While you're debriefing from the debate, have a listen to this. Your volunteer, Wendy Adams, the one who described in detail how the Kamikaze campaign will be staged, describes how the vote was rigged too. How about them apples? #ableg https://t.co/Mk58Qm0xmp

@EmmaMci

Friday night scoopette from me: Jeff Callaway, the former UCP 'kamikaze' leadership candidate, has been ordered by the election commissioner to return $26,500 in allegedly illegal donations. https://t.co/KzADLkmhU7 #abvote #ableg #abpoli

Anyways, these are all documents that counsel for Callaway and his co-applicants chose to file as exhibits in court, making them public documents. Bonus: the file included some stuff that backed up that Maclean's report about the $60,000. https://t.co/KzADLkmhU7

The court docs also hinted at more to come �� https://t.co/QthlmfyLou

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Shazam

WCS differential is only $6 now, obviously NDP policy has been working.

This is not a good thing. This is a disincentive to rail to ship oil. It’s a sign we are not producing enough and curtailment should be lifted faster. The policy definitely was effective it just needs to be wound down.

[transplant99]

So...yeah...this seems reasonable.

The Jan. 31 report states that a one-year delay in completing the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) — which the federal government purchased for $4.4 billion in August 2018, along with the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline — “would reduce the value of the TMEP by $693 million.”

You’d think, therefore, that the feds would giddy up when it comes to reducing red tape for every large infrastructure project from proceeding. But that’s not the case.

The president and CEO of Prosper Petroleum, Brad Gardiner, says he very nearly choked on his coffee when he read a recent political advertisement from Notley Tuesday morning.

“She actually wrote, ‘(Jason) Kenney’s plan leaves our oil in the ground.’ I mean, it’s galling,” he said of Notley’s statement.

It’s no wonder Gardiner feels this way. His firm — a 97-per-cent Alberta-owned company — has been waiting 5½ years to have its oilsands project go through the regulatory process to start its 10,000 barrel-per-day SAG-D project. A 2013 provincial government report said: “Construction is scheduled to begin in late-2015, with first oil in early 2017.”

But then the NDP came to power. Gardiner, a civil engineer, says if he believed in conspiracy theories, he would assume the Alberta Energy Regulator “was doing everything it could to slow this down.”

For instance, on April 28, 2017, after the AER had initiated an improper six-month delay, a hearing was scheduled for July 18. That hearing was delayed because the Fort McKay First Nation — which is trying to stop the project in the courts — had asked for the July date. Then, the nation of 700 people — which is more than 100 kilometres away from the project site — asked that the hearing be adjourned until September 2017, which was initially granted. But that date too was delayed again, until Oct. 17, “because one of the AER commissioners was on holidays for six weeks starting the last week of August.”

Now the oil company has been waiting for more than 10 months for Energy Minister Marg McCuaig-Boyd to sign an order in council (OIC) for a process that ordinarily takes just 20 to 30 days.

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/co...r-the-election

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is not a good thing. This is a disincentive to rail to ship oil. It’s a sign we are not producing enough and curtailment should be lifted faster. The policy definitely was effective it just needs to be wound down.

Only in a province run by the NDP would a higher price for our product that's still a lower price than the other same thing be a bad thing.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Shazam

Only in a province run by the NDP would a higher price for our product that's still a lower price than the other same thing be a bad thing.

I’m not sure this is a shot at me or not but curtailment is killing investment in new production. Also all parties supported curtailment

The WCS price is measured at Hardisty, the WTI price is measured at Cushing Oklahoma. You cant ship a barrel of WCS to Cushing for. $6. Rail is closer $20. This means that people in Cushing (the US refinery district) are incentivized to not use our oil. We are currently limiting supply of our oil this needs to be reduced.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m not sure this is a shot at me or not but curtailment is killing investment in new production. Also all parties supported curtailment

The WCS price is measured at Hardisty, the WTI price is measured at Cushing Oklahoma. You cant ship a barrel of WCS to Cushing for. $6. Rail is closer $20. This means that people in Cushing (the US refinery district) are incentivized to not use our oil. We are currently limiting supply of our oil this needs to be reduced.

No, no shot at you. I understand the implications of the higher price. Hopefully someone at the NDP understood the possible future ramifications of their decisions, but I doubt it.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m not sure this is a shot at me or not but curtailment is killing investment in new production. Also all parties supported curtailment

The WCS price is measured at Hardisty, the WTI price is measured at Cushing Oklahoma. You cant ship a barrel of WCS to Cushing for. $6. Rail is closer $20. This means that people in Cushing (the US refinery district) are incentivized to not use our oil. We are currently limiting supply of our oil this needs to be reduced.

I hear this a lot and it makes zero sense.

Wouldn't that mean the market will drive the price down? Isn't there currently a shortage in heavy oil? Isn't that why WCS price is effectively higher than WTI price?

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I hear this a lot and it makes zero sense.

Wouldn't that mean the market will drive the price down? Isn't there currently a shortage in heavy oil? Isn't that why WCS price is effectively higher than WTI price?

At this point you will lose money on rail, and you can't ship on pipelines cause all of them are full.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I hear this a lot and it makes zero sense.

Wouldn't that mean the market will drive the price down? Isn't there currently a shortage in heavy oil? Isn't that why WCS price is effectively higher than WTI price?

Yes the market should drive the cost of the marginal barrel to the cost of marginal shipping. This isn’t happeneing because of market interference.

So more heavy oil gets bought from Venezuela and and Mexico. Short term Alberta probably makes more money with a supply restriction but it just crushes investment.

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by GGG

Yes the market should drive the cost of the marginal barrel to the cost of marginal shipping. This isn’t happeneing because of market interference.

So more heavy oil gets bought from Venezuela and and Mexico. Short term Alberta probably makes more money with a supply restriction but it just crushes investment.

This still makes no sense.

Supply remains constant because of curtailment, but demand decreases because of an unsustainably high price. Therefore, price should drop.

[Ashartus]

I used to do work with AER on hearings. That sort of stuff happened under the PC party too - hearings were routinely rescheduled multiple times and delayed for months on even really small projects. The delay on the minister signing off is on the government though.

Originally Posted by transplant99

So...yeah...this seems reasonable.







https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/co...r-the-election

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GGG

Yes the market should drive the cost of the marginal barrel to the cost of marginal shipping. This isn’t happeneing because of market interference.

So more heavy oil gets bought from Venezuela and and Mexico. Short term Alberta probably makes more money with a supply restriction but it just crushes investment.

Speculative, I think. Curtailment doesn’t crush investment, what it does is keep Alberta producers afloat while these other factors are at play. Curtailment had a huge role in stabilising the market during Q1.

I don’t think you’re fully considering the impact of capped export capacity on investment. Curtailment is keeping producers profitable while they’re able to ramp up oil by rail, and as producers are able to export more, they become even more profitable, and investment bounces back.

[Jiggy]

The curtailment didn't help all the producers. Not all producers have the same business model.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

I used to do work with AER on hearings. That sort of stuff happened under the PC party too - hearings were routinely rescheduled multiple times and delayed for months on even really small projects. The delay on the minister signing off is on the government though.

Honest question because i have no idea.

Was it common for projects scheduled for a start date to be delayed well over 3 years because of bureaucracy, or is this a one-off/recent phenomenon?

I think this is the kind of thing Kenney has been talking about when he says they will cut the red tape etc on new projects, and his impetus for doing so is because of more recent stumbling blocks being thrown up by government.

Or I may be misreading this entirely.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jiggy

The curtailment didn't help all the producers. Not all producers have the same business model.

Of course not. Husky and Imperial can complain all they like. The broad range positive effect is more important to the industry.

[PostandIn]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

I used to do work with AER on hearings. That sort of stuff happened under the PC party too - hearings were routinely rescheduled multiple times and delayed for months on even really small projects. The delay on the minister signing off is on the government though.

It says a great deal about the culture at AER if hearings are ‘routinely’ rescheduled. Is there no particular pressure, expectations or oversight to stick to agreed dates? What about criteria that’s acceptable to delay a hearing? A commissioner going on a 6 week vacation is completely unacceptable as a reason to hold up what is already a complex and lenghty process. How does a reason like that get justified other than its become acceptable within an oafish bureaucracy that has a bad culture.

[PepsiFree]

Did I read somewhere that Kenney would essentially fit the AER? That seems to me like at least one positive.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by _Q_

This still makes no sense.

Supply remains constant because of curtailment, but demand decreases because of an unsustainably high price. Therefore, price should drop.

Supply is constant, demand for heavy oil rises, price rises. Excess demand beyond what is economical to ship is filled by other sources.