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Old 07-30-2020, 11:33 AM   #5561
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That was my impression as well, although they did secure a big bank note just as #### hit the fan so I guess that could be considered cash in a way. Definitely an interesting company, I'm really curious what their strategy could be. Their whole M.O. has been to acquire companies on the cheap but at a certain point there's only so much you can buy before you start to wonder why they're so cheap, and you need the cycle to swing back in a big way to justify your investment. The last three major purchases in this basin, by my count, have all been by them, Devon Oil Sands in 2019, Shell Albian Mine in 2017, and Devon Conventional/Natural Gas in 2014. They're also the largest natural gas producer and oil producer so it's not like they have any holes in their asset portfolio, except for a prominent downstream presence. It makes me wonder about Husky, they're struggling pretty hard, foreign owned by someone in Hong Kong (read: China now), have a lot of thermal assets that fit well in CNRL's preferred execution plan, and have downstream refineries and such. That would be a major major purchase, cash alone wouldn't be enough to get that one done.
CNRL is an entirely different animal than most oilsands operators. They operate INCREDIBLY lean, and pinch pennies like an Irish potato farmer (hence their low cost/BBL). From a supplier standpoint it's great when you hit on something that they like, because they IMMEDIATELY implement it across their operation. It sucks when it happens to you though....I've been undercut and left freezing in the dark a few times on a few projects, and had my pricing used against other suppliers to drive their purchase cost down.

If they bought out Husky or Imperial I would expect half the employees to get turfed, and be replaced with their business model which is the Murray Edwards special. Get one guy to do the job of three, work them like pack mules, and drive efficiencies out of every corner of your operation. It's actually pretty impressive to watch when it works. I have no idea how they manage it, I would burn out in a month if I worked there.
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Old 07-30-2020, 11:43 AM   #5562
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Not too sure, but I don't think so. I believe their FY 2019 showed a cash balance of approx 5 billion. I don't know where they are at the moment though.

CNRL stock hovering around $25 and if they do have free cash, it's not outrageous to imagine a stock-for-stock transaction with a cash portion for an undervalued asset like Husky or Imperial. I don't work with any of those 2 operators, but word on the street is Imperial can barely keep the lights on.

All Orange Julius territory however, so take with grain of salt.
There 2020 Q1 says 1.1 billion of cash and 5.0 billion of liquidity. Liquidity just means they have credit facilities in place to borrow 5 billion. The FY 2019 BS/cash flow statement shows 139 mil of cash and equivalents with the notes disclosing 4.7 million of credit facilities available for use.
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Old 07-30-2020, 02:28 PM   #5563
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CNRL is an entirely different animal than most oilsands operators. They operate INCREDIBLY lean, and pinch pennies like an Irish potato farmer (hence their low cost/BBL). From a supplier standpoint it's great when you hit on something that they like, because they IMMEDIATELY implement it across their operation. It sucks when it happens to you though....I've been undercut and left freezing in the dark a few times on a few projects, and had my pricing used against other suppliers to drive their purchase cost down.

If they bought out Husky or Imperial I would expect half the employees to get turfed, and be replaced with their business model which is the Murray Edwards special. Get one guy to do the job of three, work them like pack mules, and drive efficiencies out of every corner of your operation. It's actually pretty impressive to watch when it works. I have no idea how they manage it, I would burn out in a month if I worked there.
As an outsider, they sound like a great company with good operational discipline.

However, it's always puzzled me how/why people stay there long term. Last year, they made me a job offer that was embarrassingly low (I rejected it). The obviously overworked recruiter didn't do much in the way of creating a good candidate experience. Both of the hiring managers left CNRL 6-12 months later. I've also never met anyone with glowing praise about working for CNRL (especially ex-Devon and Shell people).

They'll probably be the last Canadian energy company left standing when all is said and done, but it's such an interesting dynamic with their employees.
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Old 07-30-2020, 04:13 PM   #5564
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However, it's always puzzled me how/why people stay there long term. Last year, they made me a job offer that was embarrassingly low (I rejected it). The obviously overworked recruiter didn't do much in the way of creating a good candidate experience. Both of the hiring managers left CNRL 6-12 months later. I've also never met anyone with glowing praise about working for CNRL (especially ex-Devon and Shell people).
Hence the backronym C#### No one Really Likes. I know a few companies that won't bid work with them because the contracts have a ridiculous amount of risk on the contractor. More than a few big jobs with them have ended up in litigation.
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Old 07-30-2020, 08:23 PM   #5565
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There 2020 Q1 says 1.1 billion of cash and 5.0 billion of liquidity. Liquidity just means they have credit facilities in place to borrow 5 billion. The FY 2019 BS/cash flow statement shows 139 mil of cash and equivalents with the notes disclosing 4.7 million of credit facilities available for use.
It's not really about cash and liquidity when it comes down to their willingness to do an acquisition. It is really about their overall debt level and leverage. Most estimates today would have CNRL's leverage around 3 - 4x in 2021, which is quite a bit higher than historical and well above their target of 1.5x. That means that any major acquisition would likely have to deleverage the business pro-forma, which would be a challenge to do in this environment since most of the other oil sands companies have similar or higher leverage.

I think we will have to see oil prices in the $50/bbl range for a period before there will be major M&A in the oil sands. There is just too much debt being carried by every player.
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Old 07-30-2020, 08:33 PM   #5566
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I would invite everyone to read up on the James Bay hydro project. The ecological damage of such a project to native wildlife is out of the realm of anything a modern, regulated oil extraction project could produce.

Quebec got their infrastructure built to sell energy to foreign consumers, and are now trying to shut Alberta energy in. We need leadership that doesn't pander to any region, and try and become a nation again.

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Old 08-10-2020, 07:46 AM   #5567
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And so it begins.

Canadian Natural Acquires Painted Pony
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Old 08-10-2020, 08:33 AM   #5568
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Will they still be offering stocks or merging ?



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Old 08-10-2020, 09:46 AM   #5569
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Will they still be offering stocks or merging ?
Its a cash deal, all Pony shareholders will get $0.69 a share.
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Old 08-10-2020, 10:31 AM   #5570
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Nice
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Old 08-10-2020, 10:44 AM   #5571
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Its a cash deal, all Pony shareholders will get $0.69 a share.
Money go Brrrrrr :P
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Old 08-10-2020, 11:26 AM   #5572
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Heard though the grapevine CNRL is hoarding cash like they were before they bought out Shell. I would think this is likely due to Covid, but with those guys who knows. I also spoke with one of the "higher ups" up there that mentioned they are now sub $20/BBL (I believe the figure tossed around was around $15-$17). Add in the wage subsidy and they are likely sub $10/BBL which is nuts.......that's Saudi territory.

If they are generating that kind of money I wouldn't be surprised to see them go shopping.
These numbers are all public information FYI. Their op costs were below $20 for the mines last quarter....their G&A is 85 cents/bbl. So even if they paid their employees 0$ it's not going to move the dial sub $10/bbl lol
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Old 08-26-2020, 02:54 AM   #5573
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http://https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/2...oil/index.html

For the first time in 92 years Exxon is no longer part of the Dow Jones. Replaced by a tech company, in 2008 Energy companies made up 16% of the S&P 500 now only 2.5%. Chevron now only oil company on the Dow. Analysts cited bad financial decisions particularly investing in the Canadian Oil Sands as one of the reasons for Exxon's mighty fall.
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Old 09-05-2020, 07:27 AM   #5574
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Macquarie Capital and a handful of other development sponsors announced they have successfully closed financing for the C$1.5 billion ($1.2 billion U.S.) Cascade Power Project, a 900-MW combined cycle natural gas-fired generating plant near Edson, Alberta.
https://www.powermag.com/constructio...nt-in-alberta/


Some good news, at 60% efficiency this will help reduce emissions by offsetting coal, and provide stable base load. More of these, please.
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Old 09-05-2020, 11:57 AM   #5575
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https://www.powermag.com/constructio...nt-in-alberta/


Some good news, at 60% efficiency this will help reduce emissions by offsetting coal, and provide stable base load. More of these, please.
That article says the power is already contracted and they have their gas linked spread locked in, if I read it correctly. So its guaranteed money for the developers. I'm curious who is buying the power, anyone know?

Or is it a capacity type long term deal with the power pool where we are all on the hook for the economics.

If someone is building an energy only plant in AB right now that is great news, imo.
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Old 09-10-2020, 12:53 AM   #5576
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Coal exports are set to expand on the west coast to supply Asia with the energy they require. Meanwhile leaner fuel sources such as lighter end petroleum products are left in the dust. Still massively in demand- we just refuse to give it to them for no reason (literally). I can’t get more specific than that, but it is precisely what is happening.

I don’t know how this reconciles with Trudeau’s green energy future but for some reason I guess I’m cynical that Trudeau’s green energy future has very, very, very little to do with green just like all other counter-logical Canadian decisions and policies put forward over the last few years have been when it comes to actually giving a #### about the environment (hint: nobody actually does).

I wonder when Trudeau and friends will realize that Asian energy demand is consumed actually in the same biosphere as ours? That the same air we all share on Earth is actually... you know... connected.

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Old 09-12-2020, 12:25 PM   #5577
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Coal exports are set to expand on the west coast to supply Asia with the energy they require. Meanwhile leaner fuel sources such as lighter end petroleum products are left in the dust. Still massively in demand- we just refuse to give it to them for no reason (literally). I can’t get more specific than that, but it is precisely what is happening.

I don’t know how this reconciles with Trudeau’s green energy future but for some reason I guess I’m cynical that Trudeau’s green energy future has very, very, very little to do with green just like all other counter-logical Canadian decisions and policies put forward over the last few years have been when it comes to actually giving a #### about the environment (hint: nobody actually does).

I wonder when Trudeau and friends will realize that Asian energy demand is consumed actually in the same biosphere as ours? That the same air we all share on Earth is actually... you know... connected.
If its the same coal as whats mined out of south eastern BC, that coal isn't used as energy, rather for its uses in metallurgy. Since it is of very high quality, that coal is often used in the production of metals as it has very few contaminants compared to your average coal.

I'm not saying that's what its used for, I was just under the assumption that if its coal from BC, its probably metallurgical.
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Old 09-25-2020, 04:41 PM   #5578
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1309620201084915713
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Old 09-25-2020, 05:03 PM   #5579
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More Liberal votes to buy out there.
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Old 09-25-2020, 06:06 PM   #5580
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So there's going to be a task force because they don't know what to do with the money, but somehow they know that they've got the right amount?

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