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Old 08-09-2019, 04:25 PM   #181
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First forecast for Joker has been released and is projected right now at $175 mill total after a $77mill opening. I still think that's too low, I'm expecting at least $200 mill.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-joker/
That just domestic right? Which would presumably translate into $500-600 million total.

That's a huge amount of money for a film with a $55 million budget.
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Old 08-10-2019, 06:55 AM   #182
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That just domestic right? Which would presumably translate into $500-600 million total.

That's a huge amount of money for a film with a $55 million budget.
Yup just domestic prediction. I'm not sure how much appeal this movie will have in Asia to be honest.
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Old 09-01-2019, 07:28 AM   #183
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I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:15 AM   #184
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I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:29 AM   #185
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Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
But....it might actually be good...
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:30 AM   #186
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Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
Squad also had a ton of bad reviews and bad good will. People are praising Phoenix for his performance and the Joker is the most iconic, popular villain in comics. Plus comic book movies have never been more popular
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Old 09-01-2019, 09:27 AM   #187
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I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
Suicide Squad was a big dumb action movie, aimed at a general audience. It had a pg-13 rating and a $175 million budget.

Joker is an entirely different beast. Joker has a $55 million budget, is aimed at a much narrower audience, and has a hard R rating.

I hope you're right. I'd like to see more studios attempt to tackle the non action side of comic book stories.
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Old 09-01-2019, 11:28 AM   #188
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Squad also had a ton of bad reviews and bad good will. People are praising Phoenix for his performance and the Joker is the most iconic, popular villain in comics. Plus comic book movies have never been more popular
And?

Superman is the most iconic superhero in comics. Release a movie based on him right now and it would breakeven or marginally profit

People get tired of seeing the same onscreen characters. Superman, Batman and Joker is no exception. Not counting the tv series Gotham’s joker, Joker is portrayed by a 4th actor in the movies. He’s overdone

Harley Quinn is a bigger draw. She’s a fresh, new comic book character that obviously appeals to men and young women want to emulate her because of the attention she gets from men.

Unfortunately it’s not always the good storytelling that wins big at the box office. You look at previous movies which has won best picture at the academy awards and many of them haven’t been huge box office successes. Then you look at Dwayne the Rock Johnson and the movies he’s in and they’ve all raked in big money. Is he a really good actor? No, but the guy is the most charismatic person in the world and masses are willing to pay good money to see him.

You can’t compare Suicide Squad with Joker. Like it or not, one movie has a huge marketing draw and the other is based on a stale character
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Old 09-01-2019, 11:36 AM   #189
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And?

Superman is the most iconic superhero in comics. Release a movie based on him right now and it would breakeven or marginally profit

People get tired of seeing the same onscreen characters. Superman, Batman and Joker is no exception. Not counting the tv series Gotham’s joker, Joker is portrayed by a 4th actor in the movies. He’s overdone

Harley Quinn is a bigger draw. She’s a fresh, new comic book character that obviously appeals to men and young women want to emulate her because of the attention she gets from men.

Unfortunately it’s not always the good storytelling that wins big at the box office. You look at previous movies which has won best picture at the academy awards and many of them haven’t been huge box office successes. Then you look at Dwayne the Rock Johnson and the movies he’s in and they’ve all raked in big money. Is he a really good actor? No, but the guy is the most charismatic person in the world and masses are willing to pay good money to see him.

You can’t compare Suicide Squad with Joker. Like it or not, one movie has a huge marketing draw and the other is based on a stale character
Or because she's a badass female antagonist, of which there are very few.

But I agree the DCEU would do better to focus on her as the Joker of that universe. The shots of her hideout on Birds of Prey look great. There's no reason she can't take the place of the insane anarchist. And she's a bankable star who seems to enjoy the role. They'd do well to build the world around her. And building from the enemies out to the heroes, rather than the reverse, would at least be an interesting new direction. Batman's rogues gallery is extensive and full of great recognizable characters. And actors like being villains. I think you could get a lot of good people on board this way.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:31 PM   #190
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I think the marks against Joker’s potential box office are pretty obvious, but I don’t think they involve the character itself.

The positives:
- It’s a comic book movie, so automatic audience
- Phoenix is apparently phenomenal in it (though there are some suggestions of over-acting)

The negatives:
- It’s rated R
- It’s apparently very dark and disturbing/depressing
- It’s violent

Because of it’s rating, though, the comic book advantage is immediately cut down significantly. No kids or families. It being dark and disturbing probably limits re-watches and limits it’s word-of-mouth audience.

Looking at the performance of R rated movies at the box office, there are 17 in history that have exceeded $200M domestic. Most of them are funny, or have a high entertainment value. A few are horror movies, which have their own embedded audience (people love being scared). And a few are dramas with a wide audience.

The closest comparable I can see is Logan, which made $226M. It had a lot of the same things going for it and a lot of the same negatives, with the major difference being that instead of being a depressing/disturbing character study, it was an action movie. It was well received (better scores on RT and Meta as it stands now), had random bits of Oscar talk, and all the things that supposedly make the Joker special.

So I don’t know. $300M seems very high. It has few of the things that helps films hit that mark, and plenty of things that stops them from doing it.

Even looking at Revenant, which was another dark, rated R, acting tour-de-force, with a more bankable star and a ton more awards hype. It hit like $170M. I don’t think “but it’s from a comic book” adds $130M to that number when you take kids and families out of the picture.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:41 PM   #191
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There's also release date -- no October release has ever grossed $300M. Only a handful have ever crossed $200M.

A performance similar to Venom or Logan would be very good. But like you said, both those movies had more things working for them (action movies, Marvel connection, built in audiences). $300M would be unprecedented. I really wouldn't expect it to happen.
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Old 09-01-2019, 02:21 PM   #192
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Or because she's a badass female antagonist, of which there are very few.
Like Catwoman? we know how her solo movie panned out in the box office

It’s a lot to do with Harley’s crazy hot chick gimmick being a new character to audiences and Margot Robbie starring as her
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:01 PM   #193
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Catwoman is one of the 10 worst superhero films of all time. Had it been good, I think it would have done good at the box office.
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Old 09-01-2019, 07:53 PM   #194
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Like Catwoman? we know how her solo movie panned out in the box office

It’s a lot to do with Harley’s crazy hot chick gimmick being a new character to audiences and Margot Robbie starring as her
Robbie starring is #1. She's great as the character.

Young women do not want to emulate her "because of the attention she gets from men." Women like her because she's a cool female character. Actually, a lot of men like her because she's a cool character. I hope most. Shes hot because literally every female (and most male) comic book character is hot. Catwoman starred the most attractive and bankable movie star on the planet at the time. They changed the character completely, the movie was horrendous, and she was admittedly terrible in the terrible movie. That's why it bombed.

By your logic of "men think she's hot, and women... think men think she's hot" Catwoman should have crushed. Both of those existed there (except the second part, because that's not a thing).

She's bankable because she a cool fun character played by one of the biggest stars on the planet.
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Old 09-01-2019, 09:08 PM   #195
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Joker got an 8 minute standing ovation at its Venice Film Fest premiere.
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Old 09-02-2019, 09:44 AM   #196
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Robbie starring is #1. She's great as the character.

Young women do not want to emulate her "because of the attention she gets from men." Women like her because she's a cool female character. Actually, a lot of men like her because she's a cool character. I hope most. Shes hot because literally every female (and most male) comic book character is hot. Catwoman starred the most attractive and bankable movie star on the planet at the time. They changed the character completely, the movie was horrendous, and she was admittedly terrible in the terrible movie. That's why it bombed.

By your logic of "men think she's hot, and women... think men think she's hot" Catwoman should have crushed. Both of those existed there (except the second part, because that's not a thing).

She's bankable because she a cool fun character played by one of the biggest stars on the planet.
Timing is also everything, so “by my logic” it definitely would’ve crushed, had a solo movie been released 2 years after Batman Returns when every male had the hots for Michelle Pfeiffer in a cat suit. By 2004, the Catwoman character was old news and this also goes back to my previous point about stale characters
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Old 09-02-2019, 10:04 AM   #197
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Timing is also everything, so “by my logic” it definitely would’ve crushed, had a solo movie been released 2 years after Batman Returns when every male had the hots for Michelle Pfeiffer in a cat suit. By 2004, the Catwoman character was old news and this also goes back to my previous point about stale characters
Not sure if I see your point about stale characters. Spiderman has had the most recent reboots, yet continues to bank.

Pfeiffer played Catwoman in 1992. This was a hit, and her performance was praised. 12 years later Halle Berry stars in the Catwoman movie that flops.

This has a lot more to do with Catwoman being unwatchable garbage than the character getting stale. People will go see reboots as long as the movies are good.

People will go to see the Joker, because it looks good.
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Old 09-02-2019, 01:40 PM   #198
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I think you're a little too close to this one Nadal. I don't think there's any way it breaks $300 million domestically. There are too many things going against it.
  • Rated R
  • October release
  • Not enough marketing hype
  • No Phoenix movie has ever made over $300 (he's not as "bankable" as people say)

I'd love to be wrong but I don't think it's going to happen.
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Old 09-02-2019, 01:45 PM   #199
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There’s not the marketing $’s behind this movie like there was with Suicide Squad. No doubt it will be extremely profitable but I’d be shocked if it approaches $300 million.
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Old 09-02-2019, 07:53 PM   #200
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Apparently joker is potentially tracking for a $100 million opener. There aren't a lot of presales here and positive word of mouth could see it making it to that $300 million mark, which would be incredible for the budget.
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