Confessions of a YYC Travel Junkie

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by rohara66

Looking at booking a one way return flight from Vegas to Calgary on May long weekend (either May 22 or 23) and when we started looking two weeks ago direct return flight through WestJet (6pm or 9pm departure) was only $250 with tax per person. We didn't book cause we were still getting organized but they then jumped to $320, then to $380, then to $440. Now they're back around $375 today and I'm completely confused as to when we should book.

Since it's so far out are we still ok to wait it out? Or since it's a long weekend are we going to get screwed and prices will just keep going up?

Thanks!!!

Trying to predict fares accurately is impossible. It's like asking in February what the weather will be like for the long weekend in May. Just too many variables.

In general though, high demand dates like long weekends (especially to Vegas) don't tend to see great fares.

If the price is going up on Westjet, they're probably getting enough bookings that they don't feel the need to drop the price. You might have to hope another airline feels differently.

Is a road trip to Montana to fly with Allegiant a possibility?

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Trying to predict fares accurately is impossible. It's like asking in February what the weather will be like for the long weekend in May. Just too many variables.

In general though, high demand dates like long weekends (especially to Vegas) don't tend to see great fares.

If the price is going up on Westjet, they're probably getting enough bookings that they don't feel the need to drop the price. You might have to hope another airline feels differently.

Is a road trip to Montana to fly with Allegiant a possibility?

Ya I understand it's random.... was hoping to hear that they're somewhat predictable haha. We've also found connecting flight through Victora on the Sunday for $240 which kills our extra day (the Sunday) in Vegas but it's $140 cheaper.

We're already going to be in LA so no Montana flights this time.

[MickMcGeough]

Hey cmyden, thanks for all the great info. I just started following your YYC & YWG feeds on twitter, is that the best way to get quick alerts for deals?

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by MickMcGeough

Hey cmyden, thanks for all the great info. I just started following your YYC & YWG feeds on twitter, is that the best way to get quick alerts for deals?

Thanks Mick,

Being the 'first to know' is key to the truly amazing travel deals these days. It's incredible how quickly they can come and go now.

Every day, I get people who ask me why they can't find a deal I posted weeks ago. Even something posted days ago would be considered ancient news these days.

When I find something, my posting process usually goes like this:

- Make a blog post about it (RSS feed available).

- post it on Facebook (and CP of course!), which automatically posts it on Twitter.

- if it's something really amazing I send a direct message to the people in the Facebook groups.

Ultimately it would likely come down to what you check the most often and is the fastest way to reach you. If it's your Twitter account on your cell phone, that's probably a good bet.

[Pagal4321]

Hey cmyden,

Any chance you can find a deal on flights from YYC to San Diego during the month of March? Looking for a 4 day trip there to visit family.

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by Pagal4321

Hey cmyden,

Any chance you can find a deal on flights from YYC to San Diego during the month of March? Looking for a 4 day trip there to visit family.

There hasn't been anything notable to San Diego in a long time. The cheapest look to be the Wed -> Sat flights on Delta for $444 roundtrip after tax.

[malcolmk14]

As far as predicting flight prices go - have you thought of setting up a system where you can select two cities (Calgary and Las Vegas on May Long Weekend for example) and it will show you what the prices were at various times over the past so many years? Trend-mapping I guess. It would probably take a lot to set up and might not be worth it, just a cool idea!

Malcolm

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

As far as predicting flight prices go - have you thought of setting up a system where you can select two cities (Calgary and Las Vegas on May Long Weekend for example) and it will show you what the prices were at various times over the past so many years? Trend-mapping I guess. It would probably take a lot to set up and might not be worth it, just a cool idea!

Malcolm

http://www.farecompare.com actually has this.

An even better one exists on Expedia but doesn't seem to have Canadian cities. Too bad, because it's pretty good at showing the cheapest times to fly:

http://www.expedia.com/daily/trend_tracker/default.asp

Also, for Vegas specifically, this article is a good read:

http://www.farecompare.com/articles/...ets-las-vegas/

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

As far as predicting flight prices go - have you thought of setting up a system where you can select two cities (Calgary and Las Vegas on May Long Weekend for example) and it will show you what the prices were at various times over the past so many years? Trend-mapping I guess. It would probably take a lot to set up and might not be worth it, just a cool idea!

Malcolm

There's been a few sites that try to do this, with varying degrees of success, like Farecast (I think Microsoft bought them)

The problem is, it really doesn't offer a whole lot of insight into what prices will be in the future. It's like trying to build something that predicts any market, stocks, etc.

If you knew that over the last three years prices over the May long weekend from Calgary to Vegas were X number dollars, would that really be useful for buying a fare in 2011 ? What about the fact that people are flying more this year than in 2009/2010, driving up demand? Cost of fuel?

Maybe if it were an average of what the historical price has been for the May long weekend price vs what the 'normal' baseline price is throughout the year. Could be fun to brainstorm some ideas like that.

I think good old fashioned common sense is usually the best guide though. If it's a long weekend flight to Vegas, there will unquestionably be higher demand, pushing up prices, usually by at least 20-30%.

http://www.farecompare.com actually has this.

Just beware, while Farecompare is great for certain things, it's accuracy with fare prices (especially from Canada) is terrible at best. I can't imagine it's historical fare data is very accurate at all.

An even better one exists on Expedia but doesn't seem to have Canadian cities. Too bad, because it's pretty good at showing the cheapest times to fly:

http://www.expedia.com/daily/trend_tracker/default.asp

Ah right, that's who Farecast sold to, Expedia (which is technically owned by Microsoft). $75 million.

I think Kayak used to have a fare trend tracker with graphs as well, not sure whatever happened to that.

[cmyden]

Calgary to Buenos Aires, Argentina - $714 roundtrip after tax

There's apparently a flight to Buenos Aires, Argentina for $714 roundtrip after tax.



Try March 23 to April 4 on Kayak.com

and then click on the price, and and choose the result for Airfare.com

screenshot:



It's pretty rare to see fares much below $1100 from Canada at the moment.

Argentina is probably the most amazing country I've ever visited. It would be worth flying there just to see Iguazu Falls!

[cmyden]

Holy crap it just dropped to $531 !

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by cmyden

There's been a few sites that try to do this, with varying degrees of success, like Farecast (I think Microsoft bought them)

That's the one I was thinking of! http://farecast.bing.com

I couldn't remember the site, it had been awhile since I used it.

It does tell you which way the air fares may be trending (of course not entirely accurate as you pointed out).

[jjbouma]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Holy crap it just dropped to $531 !

Unreal - seems to be all through March, April and May. Too bad I'm already going to Mexico in April...

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Calgary to Buenos Aires, Argentina - $714 roundtrip after tax

There's apparently a flight to Buenos Aires, Argentina for $714 roundtrip after tax.



Try March 23 to April 4 on Kayak.com

and then click on the price, and and choose the result for Airfare.com

screenshot:



It's pretty rare to see fares much below $1100 from Canada at the moment.

Argentina is probably the most amazing country I've ever visited. It would be worth flying there just to see Iguazu Falls!

UPDATE: This is also available to Santiago, Chile for the same price! $530 roundtrip after tax! Try Wed/Sat flights in March/April/May.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Expedia (which is technically owned by Microsoft). $75 million.

Expedia is a public company. (NASDAQ:EXPE) It was spun off out of Barry Diller's empire. One of his company's bought Microsoft's stake in 2001.

http://www.forbes.com/2001/07/16/0716expedia.html

I don't believe they've bought new shares since then.

[cmyden]

Looks like Westjet is dumping their 'end of winter' fares to Mazatlan at the moment. April 15-22 is down to $311 roundtrip after tax, direct each way.

[cmyden]

Westjet's Blue Tag Thursday is out. Could be something interesting there for anyone looking to book a flight to Ontario.

http://www.westjet.com/guest/en/deal...thursday.shtml

[Incogneto]

cmyden,

I live in Victoria, and am trying to get to Vegas for the May long weekend (May 20-23).

tips? advice?

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

cmyden,

I live in Victoria, and am trying to get to Vegas for the May long weekend (May 20-23).

tips? advice?

Can you get to Bellingham? Might be your only chance of finding something decent (Allegiant Air or Alaska Airlines).

Las Vegas for May long seems to be a very popular idea.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by cmyden

Westjet's Blue Tag Thursday is out. Could be something interesting there for anyone looking to book a flight to Ontario.

http://www.westjet.com/guest/en/deal...thursday.shtml

Damn, $330 a person round trip to Hamilton. Not bad. Ontario in May must be nice...