Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by flash walken

what's a drive by?

lol.

[mrdonkey]

I get where EE is coming from. This place in general is really bad for getting up in arms over anything that isn’t painted absolutely Flames red.

The trade sucks. It has always sucked and everyone in the world outside of Cagarypuck recognized it immediately. And yet anyone calling it that way got taken to task.

It isn’t so much “I hope he keeps it up so Edmonton does well and then I can be right” as much as it is “I hope he keeps it up so maybe we can all learn a lesson from this.”

It’s ok to admit that this situation was not managed well, from beginning to end. Treliving got burned and we’ve now seen that the wizard can bleed. Maybe there were other ways of handling it that didn’t involve trading for a useless player on a horrific contract and helping out your biggest rival at the same time.

Maybe people pointing that out just wanted to be heard instead of shouted down, as a vocal few here tend to do with anything they don’t agree with.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I get where EE is coming from. This place in general is really bad for getting up in arms over anything that isn’t painted absolutely Flames red.

The trade sucks. It has always sucked and everyone in the world outside of Cagarypuck recognized it immediately. And yet anyone calling it that way got taken to task.

It isn’t so much “I hope he keeps it up so Edmonton does well and then I can be right” as much as it is “I hope he keeps it up so maybe we can all learn a lesson from this.”

It’s ok to admit that this situation was not managed well, from beginning to end. Treliving got burned. Maybe there were other ways of handling it that didn’t involve trading for a useless player on a horrific contract and helping out your biggest rival at the same time.

Maybe people pointing that out just wanted to be heard instead of shouted down, as a vocal few here tend to do with anything they don’t agree with.

How is anyone being "shouted down"? People are responding. Disagreement =/= not allowing the opinion. I will say it's darned silly to evaluate a trade two weeks into a season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't dislike Neal. Obviously I don't want him to succeed in Edmonton but I feel regardless of my feelings on the matter it's probably going to happen at least in the first year or two. I just feel some of you are in a state of denial about him. Brad Treliving never signed Neal for his play away from the puck 5 on 5. He signed him to be that elusive winger that could put the puck in the net as he's done his entire career. Obviously in year one things didn't work as planned but at least early he's back on track as the player he has always been. Many of you keep bringing up his 5 on 5 play, powerplay goals, skating, etc, etc ignoring the fact that like many one dimensional forwards he gets paid to score goals and he's doing that right now and there's no reason to believe that he's going to drift back to the player he was for the Flames last year as he's not the first player ever to have a bad season and bounce back to career norms.

Well, that is simply false. There are several pointedly valid reasons to expect James Neal to drift back to being an ineffective winger that can't score, skate, nor do anything particularly useful in games. The reason his 5v5 play, his outrageously unsustainable early powerplay success, and his continuously poor fundamentals remain in focus is precisely because they point directly to a regression on the horizon.

[The Cobra]

Neal is not a particularly good hockey player. He is better than Lucic, and that's why Edmonton had to give up a player making quite a bit less cash than Neal to get Neal.

Calgary wanted the cash savings (and the small cap savings) and was willing to get the lesser player because Neal did not fit well with them and they hoped that Lucic would give them some small value.

None of that has really changed. Neal got off to a great start goal wise, but he still isn't a particularly effective player. he wouldn't be doing this with Calgary, and I think everyone knows that.

Treliving's bad decision was signing Neal in the first place. His decision tor trade him for Lucic was not something that really hurts Calgary; in fact, the cash savings continues to help them.

I think those who are roasting Treliving for the trade are really misplacing their criticism.

In magnitude of suckiness:

(1) Signing Neal.
(2) Keeping Neal.
(3) Trading Neal for Lucic.

Having committed Sin #1, Treliving did the best he could to get to #3. because staying at #2 was a very poor choice.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

I get where EE is coming from. This place in general is really bad for getting up in arms over anything that isn’t painted absolutely Flames red.

The trade sucks. It has always sucked and everyone in the world outside of Cagarypuck recognized it immediately. And yet anyone calling it that way got taken to task.

It isn’t so much “I hope he keeps it up so Edmonton does well and then I can be right” as much as it is “I hope he keeps it up so maybe we can all learn a lesson from this.”

It’s ok to admit that this situation was not managed well, from beginning to end. Treliving got burned and we’ve now seen that the wizard can bleed. Maybe there were other ways of handling it that didn’t involve trading for a useless player on a horrific contract and helping out your biggest rival at the same time.

Maybe people pointing that out just wanted to be heard instead of shouted down, as a vocal few here tend to do with anything they don’t agree with.

Don't see people shouted down at all.

But man in your post you describe people that disagree with you as ... basically homers, you appeal to authority, you suggest we need to learn something, and that it's ok to admit something as if we're not willing to do so.

Or ...

Maybe we just disagree. There are plenty of stats to back up the fact that James Neal has been a pretty poor hockey player for three years. How can it be so unfathomable that getting a guy like that off your roster may actually make people happy?

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

How is anyone being "shouted down"? People are responding. Disagreement =/= not allowing the opinion. I will say it's darned silly to evaluate a trade two weeks into a season.

This isn’t a recent thing. The whole vibe of this place has been really effing negative and combative going all the way back to the playoffs.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

This isn’t a recent thing. The whole vibe of this place has been really effing negative and combative going all the way back to the playoffs.

Don't feel like a research project ... aren't you usually on the negative side of things?

[SuperMatt18]

The big thing about PP scoring IMO is that it's really the unit that is generating the goals, it's not like Neal is doing anything amazing here to generate the opportunities for himself.

So if you look at the Oilers top PP unit over the first 6 games last year vs this year.

(Using McDavid as the proxy for the first unit.)

Last Year:

PP Time: 23:12
Shots: 22
Goals For: 5
Goals Against: 0
Shooting Percentage: 22.3%
Expected Goals For/60: 9.01

This Year:

PP Time: 26:16
Shots: 29
Goals For: 8
Goals Against: 1
Shooting Percentage: 27.6%
Expected Goals For / 60: 8.89

Lucic was on the top PP for most of those first 6 games last year.

So really from a PP effectiveness perspective they are generating the same rate of shots, and expected goals as they were last year. They just have a better shooting percentage this year, and it's Neal scoring the goals instead of McDavid/RNH/Drai.

Once again it's great for the optics of the trade for Edmonton and for Neal personally - but really once the shooting percentages normalizes from him shooting 50% on the PP they likely aren't much better as a PP unit than they were last year.

And fact of the matter is both of the guys are still bad at 5v5.

Neal: CF - 48.8%, xGF%- 44.5%
Lucic: CF - 46.4%. xGF% - 46.0%

And James Neal is very much the same player at 5v5 as he was in Calgary for the first 6 games here.

First 6 games in Calgary at even strength: Goals 1, Shots 8, ixG - 0.61, xGF%-44.8%
First 6 games in Edmonton at even strength: Goals 2, Shots 9, ixG-0.41, xGF% - 44.5%

But for sure... as long as he keeps shooting 50% on the PP while being force fed PP minutes with Draisaitl, and McDavid that trade is going to look great for them.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, that is simply false. There are several pointedly valid reasons to expect James Neal to drift back to being an ineffective winger that can't score, skate, nor do anything particularly useful in games. The reason his 5v5 play, his outrageously unsustainable early powerplay success, and his continuously poor fundamentals remain in focus is precisely because they point directly to a regression on the horizon.

Of course there will be a regression. The question is: will he regress to his career norms, or will he regress to the absurd lows he suffered here?

You're kidding yourself if you think the latter is more likely than the former.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Don't feel like a research project ... aren't you usually on the negative side of things?

Research project!

Originally Posted by Jeromer2.0

Should I be flattered that you spent a good portion of your Saturday afternoon doing a research project on Jeromer2.0

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Don't feel like a research project ... aren't you usually on the negative side of things?

Absolutely, I make no effort to hide the fact that I think Treliving is overrated and this team isn’t that great. But I appreciate the discussion and discourse.

There’s been a lot less of that here over the last calendar year, and a lot more tribalism, where people have to be in the “positive” or “negative” camp. Like there are only two ways to feel about anything ever.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It's not already a win for Edmonton, because I'm very confident Neal is not going to work out long term. In other words, one day management is going to wish they still had Lucic and not Neal.

If you totally ignore the context of Lucic's time in Edmonton and the differences between their contracts I guess?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Absolutely, I make no effort to hide the fact that I think Treliving is overrated and this team isn’t that great. But I appreciate the discussion and discourse.

There’s been a lot less of that here over the last calendar year, and a lot more tribalism, where people have to be in the “positive” or “negative” camp. Like there are only two ways to feel about anything ever.

Which is fair.

But you don't mind negativity, you contribute to it.

You would prefer people disagree with you in a more classy way, which I would agree with.

But ask yourself how many times you are disagreed with, and out of those times how many times is someone off side in how they disagree with you. Is that percentage really high?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Weitz

If you totally ignore the context of Lucic's time in Edmonton and the differences between their contracts I guess?

I'm not ignoring it. I'm just confident that Neal is going to be an issue long term.

The differences in their contracts? Neal now costs more in effective dollars, and I don't think the Lucic NMC will be a problem when it matters. And IMO Lucic's time in Edmonton was more up and down, especially in advanced stats, than Neal's time in Calgary, which was negative in every possible way.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And fact of the matter is both of the guys are still bad at 5v5.

Neal: CF - 48.8%, xGF%- 44.5%
Lucic: CF - 46.4%. xGF% - 46.0%

And James Neal is very much the same player at 5v5 as he was in Calgary for the first 6 games here.

First 6 games in Calgary at even strength: Goals 1, Shots 8, ixG - 0.61, xGF%-44.8%
First 6 games in Edmonton at even strength: Goals 2, Shots 9, ixG-0.41, xGF% - 44.5%

But for sure... as long as he keeps shooting 50% on the PP while being force fed PP minutes with Draisaitl, and McDavid that trade is going to look great for them.

Hope Lucic gets back to that no event hockey player that he was in Edmonton, that's a big part of this deal being a saw off for me. If he's just as bad defensively as Neal is he won't out produce him and with that Edmonton certainly has the better of the deal until the offensive wheels fall of Neal and make both players boat anchors.

Neal led the Oilers last year in CF% at 50.72%, and he was their best five on five player for what he gave up while on the ice at 53.1 CA60.

Out of 15 skaters last year in Calgary Neal was ranked last in CF%, last in CA60.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Maybe we just disagree. There are plenty of stats to back up the fact that James Neal has been a pretty poor hockey player for three years. How can it be so unfathomable that getting a guy like that off your roster may actually make people happy?

I feel like in these arguments some also forget that it's not all about the stats.

So far, I like watching Lucic play more than I liked Neal. (I am a bit surprised by this.) I don't think either guy will significantly impact either teams odds to make the playoffs, and even if it does I will only care if the Oilers go further in the playoffs than the Flames. That hypothetical situation is very far off.

Until then, I'm just watching the team I like, and I prefer watching my team with players I hate less.

(I also think it's ridiculously premature to make definite statements about the trade.)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Of course there will be a regression. The question is: will he regress to his career norms, or will he regress to the absurd lows he suffered here?

You're kidding yourself if you think the latter is more likely than the former.

The more he scores early the better chance he has of hitting say 20, for sure.

But that doesn't change the fact that the guy generally doesn't out play his production and is a net negative contributor five on five. He needs to be better than whoever else would have been on their powerplay by the same amount he's negative five on five to break the Oilers even.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hope Lucic gets back to that no event hockey player that he was in Edmonton, that's a big part of this deal being a saw off for me. If he's just as bad defensively as Neal is he won't out produce him and with that Edmonton certainly has the better of the deal until the offensive wheels fall of Neal and make both players boat anchors.

Neal led the Oilers last year in CF% at 50.72%, and he was their best five on five player for what he gave up while on the ice at 53.1 CA60.

Out of 15 skaters last year in Calgary Neal was ranked last in CF%, last in CA60.

Exactly. All I want from Lucic is to be that physical presence and be a no event player, as you described it.

So far, the Flames have been struggling offensively, and the bottom 6 in particular, including Jankowski, Ryan and Bannett, haven't had great starts. That isn't helping Lucic's numbers. But I fully expect he'll be fine. And if so, the trade made the Flames better.

That's what matters for me.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Which is fair.



But you don't mind negativity, you contribute to it.



You would prefer people disagree with you in a more classy way, which I would agree with.



But ask yourself how many times you are disagreed with, and out of those times how many times is someone off side in how they disagree with you. Is that percentage really high?

I think it’s healthy to be critical and objective with the things you love, even if you’re not always right. You’re a parent, so you know you don’t always agree with the stuff your kids do. You may even lose your cool with them every now and again. But clearly you still love them, and sometimes they surprise you and prove you wrong. It’s no different for a hockey team. Yes, I do tend to be more skeptical of this team’s fortunes, because I’ve been taught by 30 years of futility to expect nothing. Other people feel differently, and I like hearing those perspectives.

What I take umbrage with is the quickness of a vocal few who make it their mission to take things to a personal level over someone’s meaningless opinions of a silly game played by millionaires. It’s usually the same few people over and over who make it tough to keep caring about contributing.