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Old 09-13-2018, 05:13 PM   #1
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Cross-posting this and starting a new thread.

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Hot gambling tip of the week: the Pats/Jags game is currently a pick 'em. Bet the Pats hard.
I don't think I did my annual NFL thread last year but if anyone cares, I skipped week 17 and went 59-55-5 ATS to make a whopping $15 for the year in that department (I was only betting $5/game).

I also went 8-6 on a combination of futures bets. Those are a bit different because I tend to bet larger but inconsistent amounts, but I ended up coming out ahead by $95.

The big one though was betting $10 on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl before the season at 50-1, so my overall profits last year were $610. Obviously that last one is more luck than skill.

That said I've been in the 52-60% range I think for 4 straight years, which at least means I'm slightly profitable.

This year I made the following futures bets before the season started:

Total wins

CIN U6.5
CLE U5.5
DEN U7
DET O8
GB U10
JAX O9
MIA U6.5
MIN O10
OAK U8 (+OAK U7.5 sidebet with Erik Estrada)
TB O6.5
TEN U8

AFC North Winner - Ravens
AFC South Winner - Jags
NFC South Winner - Saints

Last week I went 9-2-1 ATS. This week I have:

BAL ML
NE pk
DEN -6
ATL -6
NYG +3
LAC -7.5
HOU -2
PIT -5
NYJ -3
SEA +3
WSH -5.5
DET +6
PHI -3.5

Also did a 3-team teaser of CLE +16, ARI +19.5, and SEA +9.5.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:37 PM   #2
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Rube do you strictly bet NFL or do you dabble elsewhere?
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The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:49 PM   #3
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Pretty much strictly do NFL. I just don't have the knowledge in other sports to dabble much there. One of these years I'll get my act together and start betting on baseball but that's a lot more work.
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:39 PM   #4
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Well tough week this week. The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers let you down. I did think you teased the Rams and Cardinals game the wrong way too. Los Angeles is good and Arizona is lousy.
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:42 PM   #5
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Well tough week this week. The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers let you down. I did think you teased the Rams and Cardinals game the wrong way too. Los Angeles is good and Arizona is lousy.
I knew they were lousy. I just didn't think they were get shutout at home by a division rival lousy. Bradford threw for 97 yards. It's criminal how much money he's made over his career.
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Old 09-21-2018, 06:53 AM   #6
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Had Browns -3 last night, what a wild ride that was.
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The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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Old 09-21-2018, 07:04 AM   #7
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Had Browns -3 last night, what a wild ride that was.
Me too!
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Old 09-21-2018, 05:12 PM   #8
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Pats -7 (+100)
New Orleans ML (+145)
Green bay -3 (-105)
Seattle -1 (-110)
KC -6 (-120)

We're my picks this week. Comfortable on most but KC worries me the most...

Starting to think they will develop a curse until sylvanfan eats some pubes
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Old 09-21-2018, 08:33 PM   #9
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Starting to think they will develop a curse until sylvanfan eats some pubes
I figured I would wait till after my weekly shower on Sunday.
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Old 09-27-2018, 11:55 AM   #10
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Rebounded with a 3-2 week last week to put me at 3 games under .500 for the year

Won:
CLE -3
KC -6.5
SEA -1.5

Lost:
LAC +7
NE -6.5

This week I have:

MIN +7.5
CLE ML
IND -1.5
ATL -5
DET +3
TEN +4
NO -3.5
BAL +3
DEN +4.5
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Old 09-27-2018, 09:32 PM   #11
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Lol, at that half point, backdoor cover.
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Old 09-29-2018, 10:10 AM   #12
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I had Minnesota covering the 7.5 too. That back door cover has burned me the other way too often.

Denver
Detroit
Indianapolis
New Orleans

I like those too. Although I see that indy Houston is even money some places which is even better.

Don't really see too much else this week.

A teaser of Denver+10.5, New Orleans +2.5 and Seattle +3 is something I'm considering.
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Old 09-30-2018, 09:04 AM   #13
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NO -3.5 (-105)
DET+3 (-115)
IND-1.5 (-110)
ATL-4 (-110)
Cleveland ML (+125)

Was also at the Macs this morning so decided to make a proline... it's been a few years.

TB - CHI (TIE) -3.40
BAL - PIT (TIE) -3.40
KC - DENVER (TIE) -3.60
CLE (WIN) - OAK - 3.05
DET (WIN) - DAL -3.05

Last edited by DropIt; 09-30-2018 at 09:10 AM.
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Old 09-30-2018, 11:04 AM   #14
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Cleveland ML
NO-NYG Over +52.5
Houston +1

Let’s make some money today everybody!
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Old 09-30-2018, 10:18 PM   #15
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5-3 heading into Monday night is decent. Hopefully Denver can make a game of it tomorrow night to get me back to .500 for the season. Feels like we say it every year, but the NFL seems really unpredictable this season.
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Old 10-01-2018, 09:28 PM   #16
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Took my MNF winnings and threw it all on GB -1 against Detroit.

13-3 over the last 16 games...
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Old 10-02-2018, 06:59 AM   #17
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5-3 heading into Monday night is decent. Hopefully Denver can make a game of it tomorrow night to get me back to .500 for the season. Feels like we say it every year, but the NFL seems really unpredictable this season.
Some smarter coaching and you could have had all of those.

I do tend to fall into that conspiracist mind set at times thinking the games are fixed with how teams play out the last 5 minutes.
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Old 10-02-2018, 10:07 AM   #18
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Some smarter coaching and you could have had all of those.

I do tend to fall into that conspiracist mind set at times thinking the games are fixed with how teams play out the last 5 minutes.
Smarter coaching and the refs not hosing the Browns.
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Old 10-02-2018, 12:58 PM   #19
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and the refs not hosing the Browns.
More fuel for the games are fixed arguement!

Early on I like a few favorites.

New England -10 at home to Indianapolis. The Patriots don't have that we just got whooped in prime time motivation they did last week, but I think they got a bit of their swagger back. I don't like a rookie coach going on the road in a short week against the Dark side as they get their best receiver back.

Green Bay money line
Baltimore -2.5
Tennessee -3

Are other games that catch my eye so far.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:45 PM   #20
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I kind of like New Orleans -6.5 at home with the implications of Brees setting a record for pass yards all time. He just seems to blow up in NFL-record games...

Its crazy to think how many he has had, when as a Bears fan I've only ever watched one involving a Bears player. That being Devin Hester... not often someone breaks an all time record, let alone a QB one
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