Post Mortem : What happens now?

[Teroy]

If the Flames sign Gaudreau & Tkatchuk at the price some of you are proposing, there's no way this team improves. We're going to end up with Stockton 2.0.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Teroy

If the Flames sign Gaudreau & Tkatchuk at the price some of you are proposing, there's no way this team improves. We're going to end up with Stockton 2.0.

This is why I'm ok with the Flames trading Tkachuk provided Johnny returns an the return for Tkachuk is monstrous. And it should be, he just had a huge season so his stock will be high.

[redforever]

I don't think we should let Kylington go. This was basically his first year playing full minutes and one should expect him to struggle, especially when Tanev went down.

Tanev was basically his mentor and really, anyone normally playing with Tanev would struggle if Tanev went down. He is our best defenseman.

Also, defensemen usually hit their stride a bit later in their career. I think it would be a huge mistake to give up on Kylington now, just because he struggled in the playoffs.

[SportsJunky]

I thought Hanifin had a bad showing in the playoffs. Terrific regular season though.
I thought Rasmus was good in the playoffs. I saw more positive than negative from him.

[Roof-Daddy]

We are likely losing both Zadarov and Gudbranson, so moving Kylington at the same time seems like a horrible plan unless you can find an upgrade somewhere.

[UKflames]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Signing Johnny for 8 years is risky but it doesn't change the impact and what he did for this team this season. They lose that they will not be able to replace him. No free agent is signing here for a reasonable deal right after we lost our best player. No player in the AHL will replace him. We would lose way too many wins.

I also think no way Tkachuk resigns long term if Johnny walks.

If Johnny walks, rebuild will be the only smart option. I just don't see the return in a Tkachuk trade being an immediate impact and losing Johnny for nothing would not give us enough time to retool before guys like Lindholm's contract is up. Maybe if we win the draft lottery and get one of the top 2 in 2023 can we turn the corner quick enough for Lindholm to stay

Now I don't see Chucky leaving just because JG doesn't sign here, he is to independent to let one players movement make a decision for him. If he really wants to play elsewhere, that is different.


Again you say if Johnny walks a rebuild is the only smart option, I don't get it. Yes he was our best player this year but he has had up and down seasons throughout his career. What if he signs and next season he is rubbish, do we just throw the season away and tank just because JG is having a bad season, because that is what you are saying if he leaves. Stuff the rest of the team, how Johnny goes the whole team goes.

[icarus]

Haven't been in too many threads since the debacle but was there a post that showed all the comparative stats/advanced stats for the whole series? Would be interested to see that.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by icarus

Haven't been in too many threads since the debacle but was there a post that showed all the comparative stats/advanced stats for the whole series? Would be interested to see that.

All I know is that the Flames were the darlings of moneypuck's "deserve-to-win-o-meter" all season long. They out chanced and out played teams constantly, even in games they lost.

After game 1 of the oiler series, according to that site, the Flames got their faces caved in. It was one of the red flags that went up for me after game 2. I thought maybe the oilers would be broken after storming all the way back in game 1 only to lose anyways, yet they scored 95.2% on the deserve to win o meter in game 2 despite being down 2-0 and 3-1 in the first half of the game.

It was jarring, and I knew we were in big trouble after that.

[chedder]

I just don't see the huge return many are predicting for trading Tkachuk. Unless it's a sign and trade to get him 8 years and go exactly where he wants.

Treliving really painted himself into a corner with the team's two biggest stars.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by chedder

I just don't see the huge return many are predicting for trading Tkachuk. Unless it's a sign and trade to get him 8 years and go exactly where he wants.

Treliving really painted himself into a corner with the team's two biggest stars.

It doesn't have to be a sign and trade with Tkachuk - it would have to be that with Johnny.

Sure, the team acquiring Tkachuk would likely want to have words with him prior to acquiring him to make sure that a long term deal was possible - but when they acquire him they can sign him to an 8 year deal, which is not the case with Johnny.

I don't disagree with your point on Treliving painting himself into a corner. No way should Gaudreau be at risk of leaving, it should have gotten done last summer (Johnny even said he thought they were very close to getting it done in the summer, and Steinberg has said he heard similar rumours)

[sa226]

Even though his cap hit didn't reflect his play, I didn't hate the idea of keeping Lucic around. He has been a pleasant surprise and the fear factor of having him in the lineup makes a bit of a difference.

After these playoffs, I'm more than ready to move on from him. He doesn't have the pace to play at this level anymore. The only notable thing he did was have a conversation with Benn.

I don't know how it happens but the Flames desperately need his cap hit.

It seems there's always knee jerk reactions after a season in which certain types of teams have success (We have to get bigger, we have to get faster etc etc) The Flames were beaten by 3 things in round 2. Themselves, McDavid and team speed.

It's a weird thing to say after the fact, but the Oilers, for whatever reason this season are not a great matchup for the Flames, but the Flames I think matchup well against Colorado. I think that would have been a good series. But I also think Colorado will steamroll Edmonton, with McDavid singlehandedly winning a game or 2.

TLdr It's crazy that Lucic and Monahan make up 12 million in cap space. I would try desperately to move on from Lucic, and do the best you can to figure out if a bionically repaired Monahan can regain his form. If you think he could do better elsewhere you try to make that move too.

Easier said than done.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by icarus

Haven't been in too many threads since the debacle but was there a post that showed all the comparative stats/advanced stats for the whole series? Would be interested to see that.

Far from an advanced stat, but the top line was a combined +182 for the regular season.

In the playoffs, they were -16.

These three, along with our top D paring got caved in too often these playoffs.

Lots of talk about who Sutter had on the ice for the Oilers GWG goal in game 4. Most of those guys were a lot better at keeping chances downs in these playoffs than our top line.

Our top players ran roughshod over the league during the regular season and while they still produced some offense during the playoffs, they gave up far too much.

I'm still wondering if a team can win with a top line of Tkachuk/Lindholm/Gaudreau.

[Kipper_3434]

Offense was fine in round 2. Think the defense needs a re-vamp though. I'm still really high on Chychrun (sp?) From Arizona, would love to save him from that tire fire. Killington Monahan and a 2023 1st get it done?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Offense was fine in round 2. Think the defense needs a re-vamp though. I'm still really high on Chychrun (sp?) From Arizona, would love to save him from that tire fire. Killington Monahan and a 2023 1st get it done?

Probably but you don’t want to trade the 2023 1st

[TheSquatch]

Every GM is painted into a corner. Every GM has guys he wants to keep but only at a certain price. Every GM has players that aren't worth their contracts most days. Every GM has the same problems, really.

I think the Flames D gets revamped some, but I think it's nuts to jettison Hanifin or Andersson, both of whom are, on the whole, trending better. Kylington is brand new in the NHL and no, he's not Makar, but jeez you just gonna dump him? Then what?

Entry level or controlled early contracts have to be utilized, you can't just build a team out of veteran free agents. And while guys like Lewis, Richardson, etc were ... fine... the weren't difference makers. Sadly, neither was Toffoli and they needed him to be.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Offense was fine in round 2. Think the defense needs a re-vamp though. I'm still really high on Chychrun (sp?) From Arizona, would love to save him from that tire fire. Killington Monahan and a 2023 1st get it done?

Since moving Monny would likely cost a first, you're basically offering Kylington for Chychrun.

No way does the Coyotes take on Monny without adding an additional first.

The cost of Chycrun is likely more like Kyington, a first and Pelltier. Which is way more than I would pay. There is a lot of competition for him, so the price will be high if he gets moved, and he doesn't have to get moved unless the price is right.

But I agree he is likely what Calgary needs. But Calgary's cap restraints makes it difficult as to create cap room they would need to move assets they don't want to move.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by TheSquatch

Every GM is painted into a corner. Every GM has guys he wants to keep but only at a certain price. Every GM has players that aren't worth their contracts most days. Every GM has the same problems, really.

I think the Flames D gets revamped some, but I think it's nuts to jettison Hanifin or Andersson, both of whom are, on the whole, trending better. Kylington is brand new in the NHL and no, he's not Makar, but jeez you just gonna dump him? Then what?

Entry level or controlled early contracts have to be utilized, you can't just build a team out of veteran free agents. And while guys like Lewis, Richardson, etc were ... fine... the weren't difference makers. Sadly, neither was Toffoli and they needed him to be.

Yup, agree with you about Kylington. Guy plays his first season as a every day NHL defenceman and some want him shipped out. One season. Blows my mind.

[Savvy27]

It's pretty promising to see that both Johnny and Tkachuk seem to have a preference to work something out and stay in town. Even if people aren't completely thrilled with how Chucky played in the playoffs, I think we can look at Johnny's playoff progression and realize that there is a development curve at play. As a reminder Johnny's 14 points were tied for 6th in playoff scoring when they were eliminated and his playoff production was a large concern in the recent past.

Having two players in the top 8 scoring (regular season) would be a great starting point going forward.

It's going to be expensive but if you look at other top duos I would expect their combined deals to fall somewhere in the middle of $15.9M-$22.5M:
Matthews and Marner - $22.5M
McDavid and Draisaitl - $21.0M
Ovechkin and Backstrom - $18.7M
Rantanen and Landeskog - $16.25M (MacKinnon still on insane discount deal til 22/23)
Huberdeau and Barkov - $15.9M

Some of those contracts are dated, so I think we can probably assume the number will be closer to the high end. I'm going to estimate $19.5M.

Incuding Monahan, the Flames have $26.925M in cap space with this and subtracting the $19.5M leaves us with $7.425M in cap room with the following:
Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
________ - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Monahan - Toffoli
Lucic - _______ - ________

Hanifin - Andersson
______ - Tanev
______ - ______

Markstrom
Vladar

Those are a lot of blanks and Mangiapane along with Kylington are going to use up what is left. And I think Mackey will make the team next season.
Mangiapane $5M + Kylington $2.425M


Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Monahan - Toffoli
Lucic - _______ - ________

Hanifin - Andersson
Kylington - Tanev
Mackey - Stone

Even if the remaining spots are taken up by league minimum players (I used Ruzicka and Lewis on the 4th line and Mackey and Stone on the 3rd pair), the Flames are at $84,537,500 ($2,037,500 over the cap) with 1 or two roster spots unfilled.

A glaring issue is that the bottom six has Monahan ($6.375M), Toffoli ($4.25M) and Lucic ($5.25M) making too much money for their roles. Arguably, Toffoli should be excluded from this since he plays on the PP and PK and his salary is the lowest of the 3.

Buying out Monahan gives the team about $4M in cap space, which would solve a lot of problems.
Buying out Lucic doesn't help much, only about $600k, which doesn't solve anything on its own.

Trading Toffoli or Dube could be the move.

Trading Dube for picks or prospects would create $2.3M and I think makes some sense. He is a good player but not close to a top 6 role. There is a pretty obvious successor in Jakob Pelletier as well. While this does not address the problem of too much money in the bottom six, it does provide a path to keep Gaudreau and Tkachuk without buying out or trading Monahan or Lucic who are both important players for the teams chemistry.

Also, for this to work I think Valimaki may need to be traded as well. He could fit if he makes the team over Mackey, but I am not going to include him because he seems like a guy that might need a change of scenery and doesn't have the faith of the coach.

I'm nervous about trying to re-sign Johnny and Chucky and also buying out Monahan. If the team is looking to get a hometown discount of sorts from either of them, it might be an issue to cut loose a beloved guy like Monahan after some injury plagued years.

Anyways, after going through it all and taking into consideration that the Flames are going to have their AHL team playing in Calgary here is my guess at the roster next season, turns out that $19.5M still doesn't work so I will be asking Johnny and Chucky to take a slight discount:

Gaudreau $9.25M - Lindholm $4.85M - Tkachuk $9.25M
Mangiapane $5M - Backlund $5.35M - Coleman $4.9M
Pelletier $0.863M - Monahan $6.375M - Toffoli $4.25M
Lucic $5.25M - Ruzicka $0.75M - Lewis $0.75M

Hanifin $4.95M - Andersson $4.55M
Kylington $2.425M - Tanev $4.5M
Mackey $0.9125 - Stone $0.75M

Markstrom $6M
Vladar 0.75M

Forwards: $56,838,333
Defense: $18,087,500
Goalies: $6,750,000

Total cap hit: $81,675,833

Lastly, with Tanev saying that he is looking at a 4-6 month recovery period, they may stick him on the LTIR and use his $4.5M rather than moves like trading Valimaki and Dube.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far!

[Cecil Terwilliger]

I think we should make only shrewd moves and avoid bad ones. Only sign players to long term contracts who will outperform them and move on from or trade players who will sign and then underperform. Then I’d recommend encouraging players already signed to anchor contracts to start playing better or we’ll cancel their contracts for breach of morals clause (worked for SJ!).

[boogerz]

Gaudreau re-signs for $9.5M x 7 or something similar to that
Tkachuk signs his QO for $9.0M x 1
Mangiapane signs a bridge deal for $4.0 x 2 or something similar to that
Kylington signs a bridge deal for $2.0M x 2 or something similar to that
Ruzicka signs a bridge deal for $1.0M x 2
Trevor Lewis re-signs at league minimum for $0.75M x 1
Brett Ritchie re-signs at league minimum for $0.75M x 1
Michael Stone re-signs at league minimum for $0.75M x 2
__________________________________________________ ___

Gudbranson, Carpenter, Zadorov, and Jarnkrok all walk because the Flames won't be able to afford them.

No new players are brought in due to the cap situation. Treliving won't be able to find a buyer for Monahan because he's not on LTIR long enough for any team to bury him, nor do the Flames have enough assets to sweeten a deal for someone else to take him.
__________________________________________________ ___

The team is more is less staying the course, which isn't bad (all things considered):

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Dube - Ruzicka - Toffoli
Lucic - Monahan - Lewis
Ritchie

Andersson - Hanifin
Kylington - Tanev
Valimaki - Mackey
Stone

Markstrom
Vladar

Cap Space: $0M if Monahan misses two months of the season



If Tkachuk is traded, it needs to be for a Top 4 dman...another Hanifin or a younger version of Tanev to help bolster the defense and free up some cap space. If that happens, Toffoli can step into his spot on the first line and Pelletier/Phillips can fill the hole on the third line.