Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[TSXCman]

I'm getting some funds figured out (selling items and borrowing). Going to try to buy low this time around. All of my invested savings are crashing but I'll leave them in.

[burn_this_city]

I bought a bunch of leaps for Jan 2021 at strikes and premiums of where the stock traded on Tuesday. I won't sweat it if we go down or sideways for a bit.

[Slava]

Wow, that close on the S&P 500 was insane.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Slava

Wow, that close on the S&P 500 was insane.

Killing those puts in the last 2 mins

[Derek Sutton]

Up over 300? What happened?

[Fire]

Yeah I don't think this will be a situation where it takes over 3-6 months to recover from. I think selling now would be potentially be a big mistake. I got scared and sold in the past and almost always regretted it. So I'm staying invested this time and will be looking to add starting next week.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

Up over 300? What happened?

Nah, the S&P moved up by ~75 points in that last 10-15 though. That's insane.

As far as a guess on where things go, I have to be careful. But I would just say a lot of this depends on the virus and what happens there. Switzerland shutdown any event for groups of 1000 or more today though, and if that were to become widespread you have to think it suddenly gets very real for people.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Tiger

people are panicking, which will make this big, and people are selling off. I will definitely try to invest more at this time (if I have it). but what will make it worse is more and more people pulling money out.

2008 the market was really bad and fundamentally there were issues in the market. and that did take years to come back (chart below)
Other events that didn't take long though Sep 21-Dec 26 2018 15.8% drop on fed hike, china slow down. Nov 3 to feb 11 2016 middle east tensions, NK nuclear tensions 13.3% drop. may 20 to aug 24 2015 greece default fears 10.9%. apr 26-jul 1 2010. euro debt crisis 15.2% drop. These are all the greater than 10% drops that recovered fairly quickly. there was also a little 7.4% dip in 2014 with ebola and oil collaspe. Since 2009 there have been about 25 drops of 5% or more linked to some fears or some world events too.

Overall do you see this as a 2008 type crisis or one of these similar market events?

The reason I don't think this market will bounce back quickly is because most of the fundamental issues of 2008 weren't addressed, just papered over and mostly moved into the no interest car loan sector which has been due to crater for years, the other difference is the current US administration is utterly inept where as 2008 was at least handled by half competent adults.

I suspect we are looking at the long protracted recession that we frankly have had coming for some time.

[Slava]

Wow. China just reported a 35 PMI and 29 (!) for non-manufacturing PMI. That's throught the floor by a lot. The expected figure was 45...

[wwkayaker]

I had to do a little research about PMI scores. With 5 minutes of experience under my belt, I’m going to say it doesn’t sound good to be that far below 50.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by wwkayaker

I had to do a little research about PMI scores. With 5 minutes of experience under my belt, I’m going to say it doesn’t sound good to be that far below 50.

Lol, yeah under 50 isn't good. Predicted score was 46 (which seems high under the circumstances), but 35 has to be a record low. And 29 is just terrible. You just don't see that regularly.

[flames_fan_down_under]

So stocks should continue to fall on Monday then?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Slava

Nah, the S&P moved up by ~75 points in that last 10-15 though. That's insane.

As far as a guess on where things go, I have to be careful. But I would just say a lot of this depends on the virus and what happens there. Switzerland shutdown any event for groups of 1000 or more today though, and if that were to become widespread you have to think it suddenly gets very real for people.

Game developers conference in San Francisco just cancelled. Huge economic activity just from the travel/hotel stays/deal making that won't happen now.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

So stocks should continue to fall on Monday then?

they might just stay flat, Asian markets will be the sign

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Game developers conference in San Francisco just cancelled. Huge economic activity just from the travel/hotel stays/deal making that won't happen now.

Italian soccer games being cancelled or played without fans in the stadium.

It's only a matter of time before that's the reality here.

[afc wimbledon]

first death in the US so I would expect the markets to crap the bed again on Monday, a quite weekend with no news would bring out the buyers but not now

[Slava]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

first death in the US so I would expect the markets to crap the bed again on Monday, a quite weekend with no news would bring out the buyers but not now

Do you think an emergency rate cut Sunday night would bring out the buyers?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Slava

Do you think an emergency rate cut Sunday night would bring out the buyers?

Possibly, I figure we'll see a .50 cut this week, Trump will want a full 1% but the fed wont want to go that far that fast

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Possibly, I figure we'll see a .50 cut this week, Trump will want a full 1% but the fed wont want to go that far that fast

But what is a cut really going to do? Structurally, so much of this is supply issues with China being on lockdown and the demand drop there too. It's spreading across the world and people are deciding to stay at home and companies are getting supply chain backed up and closing down events.

Nobody that is staying inside and not buying stuff is going to look at a rate cut and changing their mind because of it.

Maybe it gives companies more ability to borrow to pay people to last longer if they're in trouble though? I'm not sure.

[Johnny199r]

Anyone panic selling yet?

It's been so long since a big correction that many investors haven't had to practice what they preach, when discussing staying the course.

My money is in ETFs. My timeline is about 25-30 years. I won't be selling anything. If anything, deciding when to go bargain shopping is the big question.