Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Maybe I'm a minority here but I'm in my mid twenties, 4 years out of Uni and feel like there is nothing but opportunity here. The market is fully resetting in terms of our main economic driver (turnover of older employees, better functioning companies), the stock market tumbled last year and there were some great buys, and many indicators point to a decrease in home prices.

When I look at all the above, I would much rather be in my twenties than in my 60s (loss of job, loss of a good chunk of the equity in your house you had 2 - 3 years ago, loss of investments) in this climate.

Great post, but its still a great time to retire, as long as you did not overload on Calgary real estate.

[polak]

Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy

Fixed your post.

If you're just fresh out of school with no debt, a stable housing situation and a good job then yeah, it's a great time to take advantage of a down market.

I'm locked in to my gameplan for two more years at minimum. I have no reason to panic or worry until then. It's just not fun to see all this doom and gloom when you have relatively fresh skin in the game.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You are well on your way to being the grumpiest old man, ever. Probably by 35.

Unfortunately the way things are going he'll never be able to afford a lawn for everyone to get off of.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Unfortunately the way things are going he'll never be able to afford a lawn for everyone to get off of.

Aren't house prices in Calgary quite a bit down still?

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by Pablothegreat

Thank you for this data. Just looking at the short term, in 2015, looks like mortgages in arrears hovered around 1,500-1,600. In 2016, they are jumping into the 1,800-1,900 in just a few months - touching the 2,000 in April. Wonder what the numbers are for May-Aug.

Yes, thanks for this data. Would you know how one would get updated data? This current recession has been a much slower correction in housing prices compared to 2008 to 2010 but a correction is clearly discernible. From this data, one can see why. The credit crunch in 2008 resulted in a double in the number of arrears in Alberta within just 10 months, and a tripling in just over a couple of years. In this recession, we have not even reached a double yet.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by snootchiebootchies

The credit crunch in 2008 resulted in a double in the number of arrears in Alberta within just 10 months, and a tripling in just over a couple of years. In this recession, we have not even reached a double yet.

Someone on CBC 1010 was explaining yesterday that is a bit misleading. Alberta has long led Canada in lowest number of arrears, so a doubling or tripling of a small number is not very significant.

[snootchiebootchies]

Originally Posted by troutman

Someone on CBC 1010 was explaining yesterday that is a bit misleading. Alberta has long led Canada in lowest number of arrears, so a doubling or tripling of a small number is not very significant.

Yes, you make a good point. But I was also making a comparison of the number of arrears between two different time periods in Alberta, not between Alberta and other regions. At any rate, the increase in the number of arrears in Alberta is nowhere near as rapid as in 2008 to 2010 -- which is understandable -- but also helps explains why Calgary housing prices have been more resilient this time around (compared to 2008 to 2010). But I think a slow gradual correction in prices is indeed occurring.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by snootchiebootchies

Yes, thanks for this data. Would you know how one would get updated data? This current recession has been a much slower correction in housing prices compared to 2008 to 2010 but a correction is clearly discernible. From this data, one can see why. The credit crunch in 2008 resulted in a double in the number of arrears in Alberta within just 10 months, and a tripling in just over a couple of years. In this recession, we have not even reached a double yet.

That data is current - it was released in late July. There is a few month lag as data is collected. So we won't see May data until late August, June data in late September...and so forth.

[corporatejay]

Not necessarily on topic but here's some advice for anyone who is worried about their mortgage. Talk to your bank sooner rather than later. Most banks probably don't want your illiquid asset and are probably willing to work with you to make sure you don't default. Problem is most people wait too long and by that point the bank has no choice.

[troutman]

Proposed Alberta condo legislation would 'bankrupt' industry, developer warns


New regulation intended to protect condo buyers from long construction delays

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...arns-1.3814630

[GP_Matt]

30 days doesn't provide much of a contingency. It is also a huge hedge for buyers against a down market. If the market drops and the project is delayed you can renegotiate the price yet a hot market doesn't let the builder renegotiate.

[OMG!WTF!]

Oh no. Brad Lamb is leaving.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

30 days doesn't provide much of a contingency. It is also a huge hedge for buyers against a down market. If the market drops and the project is delayed you can renegotiate the price yet a hot market doesn't let the builder renegotiate.

30 days might not seem like very much. I'm curious to see how accurate timelines generally are for condo developments. What sort of contingency would be reasonable? 30 days, 60 days, 90 days?

I think that new regulations or guidelines should be in place for when developers can begin the sales process. Only allow sales to begin 6 months before completion or something.

[taco.vidal]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

30 days doesn't provide much of a contingency. It is also a huge hedge for buyers against a down market. If the market drops and the project is delayed you can renegotiate the price yet a hot market doesn't let the builder renegotiate.

Doesnt it? I seem to recall a lot of complaints where builders threatened cancelling contracts if buyers didnt agree to renegotiate a higher price. This was when we were seeing crazy increases in prices day over day.

Edit: werent the developers using the skyrocketing market to invoke the force majeur clause and cancel exisiting contracts on pre-construction sales and then renogotiating higher rates with buyers?

[Regorium]

I think 1 year contingency is a good compromise from a date that is specified on the contract.

One condo I bought was delayed by 4 months and that was awful already since I had made a lot of plans around it. I was actually quite surprised that I literally had no leverage or power to do anything about it.

If the condo was delayed 3 years, I don't even know what I would've done. It's rough because it's a huge chunk of money tied up so you can't even really explore other options. I think a full refund + interest is the minimum in that case.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

30 days doesn't provide much of a contingency. It is also a huge hedge for buyers against a down market. If the market drops and the project is delayed you can renegotiate the price yet a hot market doesn't let the builder renegotiate.

It depends on the completion date that's given.

In BC we give 2 dates, the estimated date (which is not legally binding but closer to accurate) and the "outside date" which is the required completion legally but is often 1-3 years beyond the estimated date. Having to complete within 30 days of that target, would be just fine.

It's actually shocking that Alberta doesn't already have a mandated completion date.

[bizaro86]

That is completely reasonable to have a mandatory completion date of some kind. If it stops folks from selling buildings before they have their zoning figured out, that seems like a good thing...

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

That is completely reasonable to have a mandatory completion date of some kind. If it stops folks from selling buildings before they have their zoning figured out, that seems like a good thing...

Of course Brad Lamb is the one complaining about this, considering he had 6th and Tenth up for sale back in early 2012, and won't be finished till 2017. People who bought at the time got to see a boom and a recession while they sat around, unable to take advantage of anything in any way for 5 years. Most of the people who initially bought are probably long gone from Calgary by now.

The condos were overpriced even back in 2012, and are pretty much unsalable now.


Fun read on the progress timeline (or lack of progress) here
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=201467

[afc wimbledon]

I can't imagine any circumstance where I'd buy a house that hadn't been built let alone a condo, all buildings have problems and need maintenance from day one, in fact the level of craftsmanship has dropped so dramatically in the last twenty or thirty years you'll have less problems with a reasonably well maintained late seventies split level rancher than you will with brand new house.

[4X4]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I can't imagine any circumstance where I'd buy a house that hadn't been built let alone a condo, all buildings have problems and need maintenance from day one, in fact the level of craftsmanship has dropped so dramatically in the last twenty or thirty years you'll have less problems with a reasonably well maintained late seventies split level rancher than you will with brand new house.

Ok thanks, grandpa. Even if "the level of craftsmanship" has dropped as "dramatically" as you say, the products used to build houses today are far superior to a 70s house. The windows and insulation alone are light years ahead. But yeah, kids these days.