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Old 03-01-2021, 12:46 PM   #1321
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Crazy, BC extending the 2nd dose interval to 16 weeks.
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Old 03-01-2021, 12:58 PM   #1322
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Crazy, BC extending the 2nd dose interval to 16 weeks.
This is very good news. We could be all vaccinated by June
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:12 PM   #1323
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This is very good news. We could be all vaccinated by June
They're saying they're estimating July for the entire population, but that sounds conservative to me given the long interval (unless they're including U18 people in that too).
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:15 PM   #1324
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BC also saying people will have some vaccine choice. Oxford vaccine will largely be targeted towards younger front-line workers earlier, but they'll have the option to decline and get Pfizer or Moderna when their age cohort opens up.
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:40 PM   #1325
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I think the BC mid July number is based on 100% acceptance and just Moderna/Pfizer. Assuming 80% of pop is eligible you have 30 million people. Q1 is 6M and Q2 is 23. So assuming the 6M end up as 2 dose vaccines before July you have enough vaccine to vacinate 26 million people so Mid-July as a worst case 1 dose for everyone date allows for some supply disruption and a week or two from delivery to injection.

So while slightly conservative I think is a good talking point for their approach. I hope Alberta adopts the one dose model as well.
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:49 PM   #1326
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Yeah, just looking at the numbers, with a 16-week interval starting now, BC would have enough doses of Pfizer + Moderna by the end of June to administer 3.5M 1st doses. That would cover 100% of the population over 30 years old, so in that sense the July timeline makes sense. But with 85% uptake, it'd do everyone who wanted it over 20, and with any AstraZeneca (or J&J) doses it'd be even faster.

Also of note, the 16-week interval wouldn't need to remain in place through the summer (at least for the mRNA vaccine where there's no demonstrated advantage to waiting). It's quite possible that someone getting their 1st dose in May or June could be getting their 2nd dose a couple of months after that as supply increases through Q3.
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:51 PM   #1327
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I think the BC mid July number is based on 100% acceptance and just Moderna/Pfizer. Assuming 80% of pop is eligible you have 30 million people. Q1 is 6M and Q2 is 23. So assuming the 6M end up as 2 dose vaccines before July you have enough vaccine to vacinate 26 million people so Mid-July as a worst case 1 dose for everyone date allows for some supply disruption and a week or two from delivery to injection.

So while slightly conservative I think is a good talking point for their approach. I hope Alberta adopts the one dose model as well.
They're expecting to have received 3,800,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna by end of June. There's 4,300,000 or so residents over 18. So if you assume 80% acceptance, that's only 3,440,000. So Just with Pfizer and Moderna you could almost get there by end of June. Granted some will have had or will be getting their second dose which would use some of that up
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Old 03-01-2021, 01:52 PM   #1328
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They're expecting to have received 3,800,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna by end of June. There's 4,300,000 or so residents over 18. So if you assume 80% acceptance, that's only 3,440,000. So Just with Pfizer and Moderna you could almost get there by end of June. Granted some will have had or will be getting their second dose which would use some of that up
This give me hope that my daughter might get a high school grad assuming numbers are the same in AB
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Old 03-01-2021, 02:20 PM   #1329
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They're expecting to have received 3,800,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna by end of June. There's 4,300,000 or so residents over 18. So if you assume 80% acceptance, that's only 3,440,000. So Just with Pfizer and Moderna you could almost get there by end of June. Granted some will have had or will be getting their second dose which would use some of that up
Yeah, some people done from Dec-Feb will have gotten 2 doses and anyone getting their 1st dose in the first 2 weeks of March would need their 2nd dose to come out of the final 2 weeks of June's shipments.

So based on some rough math, there were enough doses (320K) from Dec-Feb to give 160K people 2 doses, and about 200K doses from the end of June would be needed to cover 2nd doses for people getting their 1st dose in the next couple of weeks. So that leaves about 3.3M 1st doses available by the end of June, which after deducting the 160K people from Dec-Feb is everyone over 30 or a little over 80% of the over 18 population.

But of course, that doesn't include any AstraZeneca of J&J doses. Even just the 2M Serum Institute of India doses (all of which are expected by May) would cover an additional 250-300K people.
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Old 03-01-2021, 02:58 PM   #1330
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Very happy to hear this. I’ve been really hoping for this, and expect that likely Alberta will follow suit (they were an early adopter of the 42 day interval).

This has the potential to get back to near normal by July.
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Old 03-01-2021, 03:08 PM   #1331
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FWIW, even if Alberta sticks with a 6-week interval for Pfizer and Moderna and adds a fairly modest number of Oxford doses on a 12-week interval, there would probably be enough doses by the end of June to get 80-85% of the 18+ population.

A 16-week interval is pretty extreme, but reading between the lines I think BC is hoping to get as much coverage with Pfizer and Moderna as possible. I imagine they feel the risks of extending the interval are smaller than the risks of a) delaying 1st doses for anyone, and b) broadly covering the population with a less effective vaccine that has proven to be less adept at handling some variants.
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Old 03-01-2021, 03:17 PM   #1332
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The National Advisory Committee on Immunization came out with their recommendations for the Oxford vaccine:

-12-week interval recommended
-not recommended for use in 65+ year olds due to lack of efficacy data in that age group.
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Old 03-01-2021, 03:17 PM   #1333
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The one article I read insinuated that the national advisory committee will be coming out with the 16 week interval recommendation shortly (for the mRNA product). They must be getting good supporting data on that I would think.

To me this is huge news.

The way BC is trying to deal with the less effective vaccine is interesting as well. While more vaccine is better, it is naive to think anyone would prefer a less effective vaccine over a more effective one, if there is any reasonable choice involved.
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Old 03-01-2021, 03:25 PM   #1334
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bid...ium%3Dsharebar


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The White House spokesperson today ruled out sending vaccines to continental partners like Canada and Mexico, saying U.S. President Joe Biden is committed to getting every American vaccinated before sharing doses with other countries.
During a White House press briefing today, Jen Psaki was asked if Biden was considering sharing part of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine supply with allies. "No," she replied.
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Old 03-01-2021, 03:29 PM   #1335
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What a shocker.
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Old 03-01-2021, 04:07 PM   #1336
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The National Advisory Committee on Immunization came out with their recommendations for the Oxford vaccine:

-12-week interval recommended
-not recommended for use in 65+ year olds due to lack of efficacy data in that age group.
I'm healthy and in my 30s. Put Astra Zeneca in my body please.
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Old 03-01-2021, 04:53 PM   #1337
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I'm healthy and in my 30s. Put Astra Zeneca in my body please.
I'll be lining up. I'd wager a moderate amount that the AZ will be in pharmacies for general population outside the rollout. If so, I'll get mine as soon as I can
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