Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[IliketoPuck]

Oh, I agree.

But if we reasonably assume the current resistance in Quebec to EE is likely to continue (or intensify) for the duration of the approvals process, I can't see any realistic scenario that leads to the Liberals approving the pipeline in mid-late 2018.

I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong. Having major pipelines going to both the east and west coast would be an incredible boon for Canada.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

And predicting how the political landscape will look 2+ years out is a foolish endeavor. A lot can and will change. But again as peter said, baby steps. Good signs if nothing else.

Here on the West Coast, my feel is that tides of opinion are slowly changing as well. The Vancouver Municipal government has been so heavy-handed in its opposition, and honestly, there are bigger fish to fry in this city as far as major political issues.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by peter12

I have said here before that if these pipelines are approved, then I will be voting for the LPC next election.

For me it would almost be worth it to watch how contorted and grotesque Resolute 14's psyche would become to justify not voting for Trudeau if a pipeline was approved.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sorry, but Trudeau strikes me as a pleaser. I haven't seen anything to suggest he has the fortitude to stand up to Energy East's opponents in Quebec and tell them they're wrong.

But isn't that politics in a way? If something is overwhelmingly unpopular then politicians tend to swim which way the current is flowing.

[nik-]

Just because opposition is loud doesn't mean it's overwhelmingly unpopular.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sorry, but Trudeau strikes me as a pleaser. I haven't seen anything to suggest he has the fortitude to stand up to Energy East's opponents in Quebec and tell them they're wrong.

Thats the point. He pleases people, he has perfect sound bites, when he approves energy east it will be with Quebec Steel, Pipe, Valve, and fitting Manufacutures behind him. Slap a few Union guys to sway the average workers and the tide of public opinion will slowly turn. The Harper bluster is gone and you have a much more subtle group of politicians working here.

The liberals will not donwell in Quebec if transfer payments drop which they will right around election time Albertas contribution will be recalibrated

His Campaign manager was also advising Trans Canada on how to lobby the government and the Chrétien Martin Liberals (the modern liberal party) have always been very business friendly.

Gateway is dead because of how it was handled and would be suicide to waste capital on it when the twinning line and Energy east make more sense.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

But isn't that politics in a way? If something is overwhelmingly unpopular then politicians tend to swim which way the current is flowing.

Not that I disagree with you, and I understand this may be hilariously naive to everyone, but is it too much to ask the leader of our nation to act like a leader and make decisions if it's believe to be in the best interest of the nation even if it is unpopular?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Not that I disagree with you, and I understand this may be hilariously naive to everyone, but is it too much to ask the leader of our nation to act like a leader and make decisions if it's believe to be in the best interest of the nation even if it is unpopular?

I don't think it is asking too much. But with what we have just seen in this country, even if the government spent the political capital and tried to ram a pipeline through it would just get challenged in court anyway. We just saw that take place (where the pipeline was halted as the challenge was that the consultation was improper), so what can a PM really do?

On a similar note, I think that this is why Gateway will not be a reality. I think that in BC there are groups just waiting for a case like that to run to the Supreme Court.

I hope they get Energy East through, and hopefully something going west as well. But the idea of the PM "just making a decision" or however you want to phrase it just doesn't happen in this day and age. Everyone has to be consulted and have their say.

[Mr.Coffee]

Yeah but you know what? That's fine, then let the Supreme Court rule. They're not going to make an illogical ridiculous conclusion because of the vocal minority being NIMBY.

I think the people have been consulted and had their say. It's not like people have not heard of it yet, or haven't had a chance to if they're remotely interested in adding their voice. I think that part's done now, no? And if it is not done, get it over with quicker than 3 ####ing years. There is absolutely no reason it needs to take that long to my knowledge.

And again, as I've said, the duty to consultation does not equal we all bend over backwards waiting for everybody's approval.

Think of it like the SW BRT line... it's not completely popular. Consultation happened. Is it going to happen though? Yup. Because it's necessary, and that's what our governments are supposed to do. Look out for the well being of the majority.

[Slava]

^ I think that's the road we're on now though. Basically the government has said they are letting the NEB do their thing, and then once it's approved by them, they will make a decision. I think the timeline sounds crazy, but given the courts recent decision to overturn an approval there doesn't appear to be much of an option.

Brian Mulroney spoke in Calgary tonight and his position was that the PM should spend political capital and get a pipeline done. I agree entirely. The thing is I don't know how he can just make that happen in this environment?

[Flash Walken]

Why should Trudeau spend political capital to get a pipeline done?

What is his incentive to include Alberta at the expense of Ontario or Quebec or BC?

Lots of talk in this thread as if building pipelines across Canada is a no-brainer for the rest of the country but I haven't exactly been wowed with any of the logic or reasoning behind it other than Alberta needs pipelines to help stave off economic turmoil which is of course a legitimate reason, but mostly for Albertans.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Why should Trudeau spend political capital to get a pipeline done?

What is his incentive to include Alberta at the expense of Ontario or Quebec or BC?

Lots of talk in this thread as if building pipelines across Canada is a no-brainer for the rest of the country but I haven't exactly been wowed with any of the logic or reasoning behind it other than Alberta needs pipelines to help stave off economic turmoil which is of course a legitimate reason, but mostly for Albertans.

Because if you're not buying it from Alberta then you're buying it from Saudi Arabia or the USA.

And in light of Albertan equalization payments propping up the ridiculously fiscally untenable regimes of Quebec and Ontario for years this is akin to sh##ing where you eat.

[Fuzz]

The logic behind it is he is running a big deficit and realizes a healthy Alberta economy is good for Federal coffers. 10% of Alberta on EI not paying taxes is not so good.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Locke

Because if you're not buying it from Alberta then you're buying it from Saudi Arabia or the USA.

And in light of Albertan equalization payments propping up the ridiculously fiscally untenable regimes of Quebec and Ontario for years this is akin to sh##ing where you eat.

Come on, Locke.

The feds are selling arms to the Saudis, they obviously don't give a ####.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The logic behind it is he is running a big deficit and realizes a healthy Alberta economy is good for Federal coffers. 10% of Alberta on EI not paying taxes is not so good.

But what is the tangible benefit it will have on the economy in comparison to what it will cost him politically?

[InglewoodFan]

I'm not convinced that Energy East is strictly about getting Alberta crude into central and eastern Canadian refineries as much as the ability to get it to any refinery. My hesitation is due to the fact that most of the refineries in the rest of Canada aren't currently configured to take on a "heavy" crude diet. Processing arabian sweet is a much easier proposition than dilbit or synbit. There is a lot of heavy end in oilsands crude that needs upgrading (cracking to lighter molecules) to make salable fuel products, and some eastern refineries lack the equipment to do this unless they are set up for Mayan or Venezuelan heavy crudes.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Come on, Locke.

The feds are selling arms to the Saudis, they obviously don't give a ####.

Hey, they can use those guns wherever they want, but our Government shouldnt go trotting about spewing nonsense about Social Licenses and Human Responsibility on one hand while crapping in the other.

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

But what is the tangible benefit it will have on the economy in comparison to what it will cost him politically?

This is the problem, it would probably be significant, but at the moment we have people in positions of authority that either dont understand or dont care.

They're playing this game with Unicorns and Dragons and Monopoly money and Idealism trumping Reality.

[Fuzz]

Money? Jobs? Happy citizens? How much political capital is he really going to burn here? Get ti done a few years before the next election and everyone will forget. Remember Harper backtracking on his income trust promise? He stabbed a core group of his voters in the back, didn't make a lick of difference come election time. Liberal voters don't have a lot of alternatives on this issue. They aren't going to vote Conservatives, Greens are useless and the NDP are a disaster.

Honestly I don't see a good political argument to be made for not doing this. He can make it up to voters in other ways, such as keeping the money flowing to Quebec, and progress on other native issues. Make other environmental commitments. It really is a no-brainer. Dragging it out, especially close to an election is a bad idea.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by InglewoodFan

I'm not convinced that Energy East is strictly about getting Alberta crude into central and eastern Canadian refineries as much as the ability to get it to any refinery. My hesitation is due to the fact that most of the refineries in the rest of Canada aren't currently configured to take on a "heavy" crude diet. Processing arabian sweet is a much easier proposition than dilbit or synbit. There is a lot of heavy end in oilsands crude that needs upgrading (cracking to lighter molecules) to make salable fuel products, and some eastern refineries lack the equipment to do this unless they are set up for Mayan or Venezuelan heavy crudes.

I thought Irving had said they would deal with it.

[Flash Walken]

Locke, it's been sad watching you go Full CaptainCrunch these last few months.

Please come back.

Again, I ask, what is the tangible benefit to Trudeau to use political capital to help push through pipeline infrastructure to eastern canada or the BC coast?

"Because Canada owes us" or "terror oil" aren't real reasons.