[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but he/she was trying to quantify it and was very likely massively overstating it (which is what my post was saying, but you decided not to quote that part)

I don’t think classic_sniper is overstating at all. Just 3 of those extra 10 goals need to be ‘meaningful’

+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO loss.
+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn an overtime/SO loss into a regulation win
+2 points - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO win

If the other 7 goals make no material difference to any result , then the Flames still have an extra 2 Wins worth of points, as Classic_Sniper mentioned.

[Ped]

Neal only had 3 goals in his last 24 games last season as well, so clearly this goes past this season. He did have 6 goals in the playoffs.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

I don’t think classic_sniper is overstating at all. Just 3 of those extra 10 goals need to be ‘meaningful’

+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO loss.
+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn an overtime/SO loss into a regulation win
+2 points - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO win

If the other 7 goals make no material difference to any result , then the Flames still have an extra 2 Wins worth of points, as Classic_Sniper mentioned.

The point is you have to imagine that the goals come in very specific games. Alternatively, Neal could have 20 goals and the Flames would have an identical record.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Too much. Not only is there no reason for us to shed the contract right now, thinking there isn’t a team out there that thinks he’ll turn it around is wacky.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Flames fan actually propose a worse trade for us than the Regher deal, but there you go.

We’d be better off buying him out FFS.

Buying him out doesn’t shed all of his cap hit. Do you not know this? Plus Murray is unlikely to buy out another expensive RW so soon after Brouwer...so a buy out is not an option.

You do realize we need to sign Chucky and a goalie next season right? Wouldn’t you like to add a terasenko/stone ‘type’ player to exploit this window while we have it?...we would need rid of Neal’s cap hit to do this

What do you think we’d need to offer say ‘carolina’ to take him off our hands?

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The point is you have to imagine that the goals come in very specific games. Alternatively, Neal could have 20 goals and the Flames would have an identical record.

You’re right, the extra 10 goals could also count for 6 more wins...so rather than predict one extreme or the other, why not assume a middle ground of 2 wins worth of points?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

I don’t think classic_sniper is overstating at all. Just 3 of those extra 10 goals need to be ‘meaningful’

+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO loss.
+1 point - 1 goal in a game to help turn an overtime/SO loss into a regulation win
+2 points - 1 goal in a game to help turn a one goal (or two-goals with an EN) regulation loss into an overtime/SO win

If the other 7 goals make no material difference to any result , then the Flames still have an extra 2 Wins worth of points, as Classic_Sniper mentioned.

10 goals total - 6 more goals. I don't think anyone is suggesting he should be at 14 goals at the halfway point in the season. Even suggesting 10 total is probably a stretch, considering he has been playing mostly on the 3rd line, and the 2nd PP unit. Assuming 20+ goals for the season also assumes getting the opportunities, and line-mates that are commensurate with that. And he isn't. For a 3rd liner, a reasonable expectation for him is probably 7 or 8 goals at this point.

So we're realistically talking about 3 to 6 more goals, depending on opportunities. And the other thing about opportunities is that, if he is getting them, someone else isn't. So that means that his extra goals are just replacements of someone else's.

Once we factor out production that would be a function of getting opportunities in place of someone else, we're probably talking 3 more goals. And that probably results in one more win max - possibly none.

Anyway, whatever. Pure, pointless speculation.

The bottom line is that, as a 3rd line winger, he isn't hurting the team in any meaningful way. Let's see how the rest of the season and playoffs play out before we toss him in the wood shredder.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

You’re right, the extra 10 goals could also count for 6 more wins...so rather than predict one extreme or the other, why not assume a middle ground of 2 wins worth of points?

Because it's just pure speculation. And also because it's against common sense. If the other team has shut down the top line it's because they are outplaying Calgary generally, or the goalie is on a heater. Why do you think a better Neal is scoring in those games, as opposed to the games where the Flames have the edge.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

What would it take to move Neal out? (probably to a team struggling to get to the cap floor)

To Flames: 7th round draft pick

To <Team>: Neal, Kylington, 2nd Round pick

Would this entice a team to take the 5.75mm cap hit?

Not saying I’d like to see Kylington go as I think he has solid 2nd pair potential. Just trying to figure out what the consensus price to move Neal would be. Too much, too little?

Kylington and a 2nd? Are you out of your mind?

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Odd thing to look forward to. I look forward to him finding a groove and turning his production around.

I'm done cheering for him to "turn it around". He doesn't do any of the things right that would suggest he's due for a big turn around.

He's not riding shotgun to anyone who can make him look good, and he has the same amount of goals as Hathaway with over 15 minutes of ice time a night. I want to see players on young side of 30 who look like they give a #### out there instead of Neal who hasn't engaged in a puck battle in 2019.

His ice time is unjustified but his production is. I'd like to see Frolik and Hathaway get bigger roles over Neal immediately. And I'd like to see us add a RW at the deadline.

Your analogy reminds me of waiting in a failed marriage hoping it will turn around as it gets worse and worse and by the end lawyers are involved and you've spent millions and nobody's happy about the situation.

That's going to be James Neal and the Flames if they don't just accept he doesn't work here and move on with their respective lives.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Kylington and a 2nd? Are you out of your mind?

This is the type of reply that happens when you don’t read the post properly.

What do you think it would take to trade Neal? Go on, propose a trade that you think the other team would accept!

I’m not suggesting do it (as I clearly stated in my post) ...just getting an idea about what it would take to get a team to accept.

[Enoch Root]

Now there are lawyers involved?

Please tell me there are no children!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

I'm done cheering for him to "turn it around". He doesn't do any of the things right that would suggest he's due for a big turn around.

He's not riding shotgun to anyone who can make him look good, and he has the same amount of goals as Hathaway with over 15 minutes of ice time a night. I want to see players on young side of 30 who look like they give a #### out there instead of Neal who hasn't engaged in a puck battle in 2019.

His ice time is unjustified but his production is. I'd like to see Frolik and Hathaway get bigger roles over Neal immediately. And I'd like to see us add a RW at the deadline.

Your analogy reminds me of waiting in a failed marriage hoping it will turn around as it gets worse and worse and by the end lawyers are involved and you've spent millions and nobody's happy about the situation.

That's going to be James Neal and the Flames if they don't just accept he doesn't work here and move on with their respective lives.

I don't know of any analogy I used. Anyway, you aren't complaining about his play. You are actively hoping for him to continue to slide and get demoted. I'd rather look for the reverse, thanks.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

This is the type of reply that happens when you don’t read the post properly.

What do you think it would take to trade Neal? Go on, propose a trade that you think the other team would accept!

I’m not suggesting do it (as I clearly stated in my post) ...just getting an idea about what it would take to get a team to accept.

Neal is in the 1st year of a 5 year deal and isn't playing well.

That makes it a terrible time to trade him. There are no sensible offers - there is no sensible deal here.

He is not going to get traded this year. There is no deal that makes sense. It would be lousy GMing to even try.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don't know of any analogy I used. Anyway, you aren't complaining about his play. You are actively hoping for him to continue to slide and get demoted. I'd rather look for the reverse, thanks.

You are right. I was the one reminded of the analogy I then used. Me Engeish good.

It's not that I hope that he slides further personally, he's slid enough already that I want the Flames and Bill Peters to give his ice time to other people. I think he's been coddled plenty and I'm tired of it.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Neal is in the 1st year of a 5 year deal and isn't playing well.

That makes it a terrible time to trade him. There are no sensible offers - there is no sensible deal here.

He is not going to get traded this year. There is no deal that makes sense. It would be lousy GMing to even try.

It’s lousy GMing to bury your head in the sand and not admit you’ve made a boo-boo. The flames are clearly in their window...and we need Neal’s cap hit to drive this team forwards.

It concerns me that you think we have such an awful player that there is no chance anybody else wants him, even if we add a draft pick. Even I’m not that down on The guy.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

It’s lousy GMing to bury your head in the sand and not admit you’ve made a boo-boo. The flames are clearly in their window...and we need Neal’s cap hit to drive this team forwards.

It concerns me that you think we have such an awful player that there is no chance anybody else wants him, even if we add a draft pick. Even I’m not that down on The guy.

It isn't putting your head in the sand to know that this isn't the time. This is my last comment to you.

And to the bold... lol

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

This is the type of reply that happens when you don’t read the post properly.

What do you think it would take to trade Neal? Go on, propose a trade that you think the other team would accept!

I’m not suggesting do it (as I clearly stated in my post) ...just getting an idea about what it would take to get a team to accept.

I read the post perfectly fine. It was just a terrible suggestion. No reason to spend valuable assets to trade a player when we don't even need the cap space.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It isn't putting your head in the sand to know that this isn't the time. This is my last comment to you.

And to the bold... lol

Before you go, do you think a team would accept my trade scenario? One word answer Yes/no?...

[Flame4Ever]

Would people be willing to swap Neal for another bad contract?
How bad has Bobby Ryan been?
If the cap hits could be equalized, would most people be ok with that swap?

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

Would people be willing to swap Neal for another bad contract?
How bad has Bobby Ryan been?
If the cap hits could be equalized, would most people be ok with that swap?

Thank you for bringing up the Bobby Ryan contract. Signed until 2022 @ 7.5M. He's 31 now. 7 goals and 25 points.

I think that's worse than Neal.. 7.5M is a lot... It's like two bad contracts in one.

edit - I meant thank you because the perspective helps. Some of those dead-weight contracts are even bigger than 5.75M.