Big Save Dave: Is he the long term answer?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but you're talking about length of contract, at signing.

TextCritic's reference was with respect to a player signing mid-season (for less), because of the risk that they might get injured before the end of the season.

And I agree with him that players don't think like that.

If a contract was in the cards for Karri Ramo, I bet he would have regrets not doing something mid season.

[GreenLantern2814]

Bold prediction: David Rittich is going to have a smaller AAV on his next contract than Mike Smith's $4.25.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If a contract was in the cards for Karri Ramo, I bet he would have regrets not doing something mid season.

Yes. There is always one in 1,000.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If a contract was in the cards for Karri Ramo, I bet he would have regrets not doing something mid season.

Ramo's case is exactly why you don't sign these guys middle of the season. His save percentages prior to a major knee injury were .911 and .912, and his final year he finished .909. Wait until the year is over. See what you have. See if there are any major debilitating knee injuries. We're dealing with an RFA goaltender. There is no pressure from the Flames side to get this done early.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Bold prediction: David Rittich is going to have a smaller AAV on his next contract than Mike Smith's $4.25.

That's not all that bold. Raanta is 4.25 and he is easily the closest comparable. 4.25 for three years is what Rittich is worth if he can complete an entire season at this pace. Or he signs a one year at 2.0 and then gets a big payday if he can do it again next year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Bold prediction: David Rittich is going to have a smaller AAV on his next contract than Mike Smith's $4.25.

Technically that’s the Flames cap hit. Coyotes retained and Smith is being paid $5.666 MM

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, how do you see this playing out?

Let's say for the sake of argument that Rittich plays well and the Flames get an appearance in the WC Finals. Let's even say that he gets a nod for the Vezina Trophy.

He is an RFA with arbitration rights. So, he is RFA offer-sheet eligible meaning he must either sign with the Flames, or sign an offer-sheet that the Flames have right-of-first-refusal to match.

Connor Hellebuyck is likely the analogue that Rittich's camp will draw comparisons to: 25-years-old, two playoff-round wins, and a Vezina nomination. The Flames are probably countering with the second-contracts awarded to Martin Jones or Matt Murray. I think in this situation the arbitrator is deciding between deals in ranging from $3.0 m–$6.0 m, but two of these goalies have a higher pedigree and level of experience than Rittich, which reduces his value—one was coming off of his second full year as a NHL starter, and the other had won two Stanley Cups. I am quite convinced he does not get close to a $6.0 AAV in arbitration, and maintain that he probably tops out at $4.0 x 2. This is likely the high-water mark for any deal the Flames sign to avoid arbitration.

This brings us to free agency. Another option which could raise Rittich's value would be by way of an RFA offer-sheet. A high offer could put the Flames in an uncomfortable position of overpaying Rittich, but with the likes of elite UFA goalies like Semyon Varlamov and Sergei Bobrovsky, and with other wildcards like Cam Talbot, Robin Lehner, Kieth Kinkaid and Mikko Koskinen all on the market I don't see that there would be significant demand to sign him to a big, long-term deal.

In short, I just don't see that there is a significant danger of costs escalating dramatically on Rittich's next contract—certainly not enough so that the Flames would be best served to sign him now.

Really good post actually, well done. Yes, I also don’t forsee $6M happening either, but if I was Treliving, I wouldn’t want to paint myself into a corner either. Looking at the cap situation next season, the Flames are going to be tight up against the cap unless they cut some serious payroll. So to me, it seems like a good idea to get a quality goaltender like Rittich signed early at manageable cap hit so that he’s not sniffing around at the likes of arbitration or an offer sheet where he could potentially sniff out a high cap hit of 4ish-5ish million.

Even seeing a number in the 4’s or the 5’s would honestly scare me because of how quickly goalies can regress and with the tight cap situation, there’s not a lot of room for errors. So the way I see it, signing Rittich early is the more risk-adverse idea because I think the Flames could deal with a $2.5M contract that goes awry then a $5M cap hit. I really don’t like that Hellebuyck contract and If I’m in Treliving’s shoes, I’m doing everything I can to avoid that deal even if it means signing a currently unproven Rittich.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I don’t think any of us really know how the business/agent nuances really affects contracts, so I won’t personally go there.

But it’s true that Mike Smith had an incredible 3 months, but he was also in his mid 30’s and the equipment change this season has really tanked his career. Being a lanky guy like him, I’m not surprised it’s affected him so much. But that doesn’t seem to be the case with BSD.

I can’t guarantee he gets 5 or 6 either, but I also didn’t expect Hellebuyck to get 6+ after 1 good year. Rittich’s agent is probably going to use Hellebuyck as a comparable and the more things that match by season’s end, the more comparable their contracts could get. Personally I hope I’m wrong because our cap situation would be ****** in the summer.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The agent will undoubtedly use Hellebuyck as a comparable. And Treliving will counter that he isn't currently earning it, that you need more track record to justify that kind of money. Also, Hellebuyck had a longer, and stronger, track record.

I think Casey DeSmith's new deal pretty firmly sets the market for what Rittich and the Flames will be negotiating on his next deal.

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

https://twitter.com/user/status/1083800725665259520

cross a potential summer candidate off the list

[Erick Estrada]

I think Rittich will have a case for more than that deal.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think Rittich will have a case for more than that deal.

Certainly. But the question is how much more? I think DeSmith's deal helps to ensure that Rittich is not going to be getting a +350% raise on a long-term contract.

The point here is that DeSmith's new contract is easily the closest comparable for Rittich heading into free agency.

[Dion]

The Flames are going to have to decide by the end of this season if he's the one. Rittich becomes a UFA at the end of next season so Tre has to decide if he's going to give him another 1 year deal or does he lock him up long term. Problem is Tre could wait another year but if Rittich has another great season his value will go way up.

[The Yen Man]

I would not risk signing Rittich mid season. Why ruin what's going well right now with that? What if Rittich starts playing worse because he's trying to justify his new contract, and we limp into the playoffs and get swept?

Why not evaluate Rittich for the full season, and then worry about signing him in the off season instead? Ideally, he becomes Matt Murray 2.0 and we can talk about extension then.

[gamesaver]

@Textcritic: You are wrong if you think Rittich is going to be ok with anything remotely close DeSmith signed. The difference between them is the fact there is no Matt Murray in Calgary, which means Flames will have to rely solely on Rittich to carry them into the playoffs and beyond. If he can handle it and maintains his current level of play, he will be looking for 1A/1B money at the very least. Starting at 2mil a year, but probably a bit more. The fact that he is eligable for arbitration is going to help him too.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by gamesaver

@Textcritic: You are wrong if you think Rittich is going to ok with anything remotely close DeSmith signed. The difference between them is the fact there is no Matt Murray in Calgary, which means Flames will have to rely solely on Rittich to carry them into the playoffs and beyond. If he can handle it and maintains his current level of play, he will be looking for 1A/1B money at the very least. Starting at 2mil a year, but probably a bit more. The fact that he is eligable for arbitration is going to help him too.

Contract negotiation is all about comparables. DeSmith has comparable numbers to date, and experience.

True, there is no Matt Murray at the moment (though Murray hasn't been anything great this year and DeSmith has been pretty much a 1B). But there will be starting goalies available it seems, so Treliving can argue that it's not certain that Rittich is guaranteed to be the number one.

[MrMike]

My guess is 2 Years, 2.5 year one, 3.0 year two.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by gamesaver

@Textcritic: You are wrong if you think Rittich is going to ok with anything remotely close DeSmith signed.

That is not what I said. I said that this deal is the benchmark off of which both sides will be negotiating.

The difference between them is the fact there is no Matt Murray in Calgary, which means Flames will have to rely solely on Rittich to carry them into the playoffs and beyond.

Which has little to do with a contract that will kick in next year. The Flames will be adding a goalie in the summer.

If he can handle it and maintains his current level of play, he will be looking for 1A/1B money at the very least. Starting at 2mil a year, but probably a bit more. The fact that he is eligable for arbitration is going to help him too.

Yes, and DeSmith's deal helps to contain that number considerably.

[flamesfever]

My gut tells me to lock him up before the end of the season, if his numbers hold up. Something in the order of $3. to 3.5 M over 3 years would not make me uncomfortable.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

My gut tells me to lock him up before the end of the season, if his numbers hold up. Something in the order of $3. to 3.5 M over 3 years would not make me uncomfortable.

As discussed at length throughout this thread there is not much incentive for Rittich to sign a deal now.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

As discussed at length throughout this thread there is not much incentive for Rittich to sign a deal now.

Maybe in your or other's eyes. But what if his fear of injury, level of confidence, or risk tolerance is such that he is willing to consider "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

Maybe in your or other's eyes. But what if his fear of injury, level of confidence, or risk tolerance is such that he is willing to consider "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

No one here knows for sure what drives David Rittich, but I suspect as a professional athlete playing at the highest level in the world and at an age at which he hopes to emerge as an every-day impact player it is likely that he does not fret much about injury, confidence or risk tolerance. I imagine that Rittich believes that he can be a difference maker, and he is motivated by cashing-in on a great season.