2023/24 Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

If you save $6MM replacing Merrifield with Schneider and another ~$10MM replacing Ryu with cheaper Ryu you could use that money to give Chapman a pretty substantial raise on his current $12.5 and still come out even. I have to think $25MM x 5 gets him to sign doesn't it?

I’d argue that would be a guaranteed signing number. At $25M per season. Personally I’d not want him for that number or length. Consistency is key. Throwing a lot of money at inconsistency just because of a bad FA year is incredibly short sighted. I’d just take a flyer on Candelario.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I’d argue that would be a guaranteed signing number. At $25M per season. Personally I’d not want him for that number or length. Consistency is key. Throwing a lot of money at inconsistency just because of a bad FA year is incredibly short sighted. I’d just take a flyer on Candelario.

I wouldn't mind him at a higher price for shorter term - at $25 x 3 years I'd sign him for sure, obviously longer is worse given his age.

I think this team is in win-now mode. While Vlad and Bo are cost controlled I think it wouldn't be bad to overpay Chapman for a few years, he's the best 3B they will be able to get next year.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

If you save $6MM replacing Merrifield with Schneider and another ~$10MM replacing Ryu with cheaper Ryu you could use that money to give Chapman a pretty substantial raise on his current $12.5 and still come out even. I have to think $25MM x 5 gets him to sign doesn't it?

... I'm not sure I want Chapman for 5 years.

Also have to account for the fact that the Jays probably had insurance on Ryu's contract (so I figure they spent the Ryu money on Bassitt already) and the arbitration eligible guys getting raises. Oh and the hefty raise that Green just got on the 2Y team option and some backloading on other contracts. If the Jays intend to keep payroll where it is they can't give Chapman a raise on the open market (need either a trade for cost controlled equivalent talent or an internal replacement).

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Parallex

... I'm not sure I want Chapman for 5 years.

Also have to account for the fact that the Jays probably had insurance on Ryu's contract (so I figure they spent the Ryu money on Bassitt already) and the arbitration eligible guys getting raises. Oh and the hefty raise that Green just got on the 2Y team option and some backloading on other contracts. If the Jays intend to keep payroll where it is they can't give Chapman a raise on the open market (need either a trade for cost controlled equivalent talent or an internal replacement).

Hadn't considered the Ryu insurance angle.

It sort of depends where they want to spend the money. They have quite a few holes (Belt, KK, Chapman, Merri), but none of the guys were on league min either, so there is some replacement money to play with. I think going low $ at 2B with Schneider et al makes sense for sure, and it sure would be nice to get a better bat for the outfield (move Varsho to CF).

I was sort of surprised they exercised the Green option. That's a high dollar figure for him imo, I'd have rather spent that elsewhere (eg Hicks) or tried to find someone more cost controlled.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I was sort of surprised they exercised the Green option. That's a high dollar figure for him imo, I'd have rather spent that elsewhere (eg Hicks) or tried to find someone more cost controlled.

I don't like spending a lot of money on relievers in general but it's hard to dispute that the bullpen has raised in importance since starters aren't logging the innings that they used to and this is the kind of money that high-leverage set-up guys get (and Green is very much a high-leverage set-up guy). Pearson probably finally get's a full season spot I wager to replace Hicks/Cimber.

I'm also thinking that the Jays will probably also want to dip below the CBT line next offseason unless they can extend Bo and Vlad longterm.

[ben voyonsdonc]

One forgotten bullpen arm is Zach Pop who was a casualty of injuries and having options. We’ll also likely have Mitch White to, at a minimum, eat some innings…hopefully his stock continues to trend upwards. Yosver Zulueta who has hit a bit of a development wall in Buffalo but if he can get it back on track, could be a legit late innings guy.

[Roof-Daddy]

Connor Cooke will soon become a regular high leverage bullpen arm for the Jays IMO. Nasty stuff.

Same with Hagen Danner, if he can stay healthy.

[Jason14h]

Why do we want to resign Chapman ? After the first month he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat

His numbers are just going to get worse every year

[flamingred89]

Yeah I have a hard time jumping on the sign Chapman train. If he accepts the QO or will settle for another 2 year show me deal, then ok. But anything with big dollars or term scares me. His offensive dropoff after April was Huberdeau-esque. He's pretty much Andrelton Simmons at this point. Some team will give him the dough though. So he'll get his bag. Just hopefully not with the Jays. I'd rather use that money to target a big outfield bat.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Yeah I agree that Chappy on a one year deal is probably a good thing for the team as I don’t think they are ready to play Martinez or Barger full time at third base and as such, would have to find a replacement level stop gap guy. However, anything more than a year is a huge mistake.

His high market value is driven by scarcity not by his production and I’d rather another team to overpay for him on a long term deal. He’s not getting any younger and his bat isn’t going to get significantly better. He is a .225-.240 hitter with a propensity to strike out but can hit 20-25 home runs. His defense is good but isn’t good enough to make him worth $25m per season on a long term deal.

[bluejays]

I didn't realize Chapman is a Boras client. Yeah, he's not signing for any discount at term or price. I'm guessing based on the big failures last year, some team will pay him 5 years at $24M or so. I think most are kinda undervaluing his potential bat. We know his defence is very good, but for years he was a silently good hitter in Oakland. Last year he sucked after the first couple months. If the Jays haven't ruined him he'll probably be a good hitter again. Still not worth $25M but I can see a team doing it.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I didn't realize Chapman is a Boras client. Yeah, he's not signing for any discount at term or price. I'm guessing based on the big failures last year, some team will pay him 5 years at $24M or so. I think most are kinda undervaluing his potential bat. We know his defence is very good, but for years he was a silently good hitter in Oakland. Last year he sucked after the first couple months. If the Jays haven't ruined him he'll probably be a good hitter again. Still not worth $25M but I can see a team doing it.

When you look at his track record, he never was a really good hitter. He had a single year where he hit over .250 and one where he hit 36 home runs. But generally he’s been a .230-.240 guy with 20-25 home runs. That’s alright production but not worth $25m IMO.

You’re right that the Boras factor is definitely huge. He knows that a one year deal means he’ll be a year older in a free agent class that likely has less scarcity than this year’s pathetic group. Chapman is the biggest fish in a pond full of guppies this year. There’s a risk that Chapman gets injured next year or has a continuation of this year’s weak performance. There is zero chance that he takes a short term deal IMO…even if it would be good for the Jays if he signed one with them.

[Jason14h]

The Jays will take the draft pick and sign Cody Bellinger

[bizaro86]

Yeah, Chapman's career earnings are almost certainly maximized by holding out for at least 5 years.

But giving him the Springer contract is probably not a good choice. Given the paucity of options and the high spending teams that sucked this year I bet someone does.

[bluejays]

It’s funny because last year we thought teams would throw out stupid money, but many teams were fairly prudent. This year the desperation ramps up so it’s a guess that a team or two will pony up the cash and splurge. But some of those big spenders are up against their internal wall, which can pose some interesting trade possibilities such as what may be happening with Soto. Still, not totally sure what the spending situation is as it can go either way.

[Roof-Daddy]

Sounds like Soto is 100% getting traded this off season supposedly.

Kind of exactly what the Jays need lol

Prime aged left handed power hitting corner OFer

[KelVarnsen]

Atkins for Soto. Make it happen.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Sounds like Soto is 100% getting traded this off season supposedly.

Kind of exactly what the Jays need lol

Prime aged left handed power hitting corner OFer

Agree on his value to the team, but at what cost? We can't afford to let go of our best two or three prospects. It would probably be Vlad + 2 of them. Again, our boy Atkins really messed the team up by not having a steady stable of prospects in the system to afford some of these type deals. Instead, two guys were dealt for Varsho. Would love Soto, but how do they do it without dealing their top prospects?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Sounds like Soto is 100% getting traded this off season supposedly.

Kind of exactly what the Jays need lol

Prime aged left handed power hitting corner OFer

Yeah, he'd be a great fit.

But I mean, Id like to do that and then trade for Mookie Betts to fill the hole at 2B and sign Ohtani to DH. But probably none of those things are happening.

I don't think the Jays can afford any more big trades at this point.

[bizaro86]

Anyone have any thoughts on whether Martinez could play 3B in the bigs this year? If you had 2B and 3B on pre-arb contracts that would free up a bunch of cash to add some bats for the OF/DH.