[CP Story] Makings Sense of the Lucic Trade

[Bingo]

make sure you click on the charts, they pop up more clear.

Making sense of the Lucic trade

Guessing this could start a long day for me ...

[blender]

I haven't commented on the trade here yet; I've just enjoyed the hysteria, lol.
I consider myself very even-keel about the Flames. I learned long ago that how I feel about hockey has no bearing on what the team will do or how they perform, so I won't bother getting into it here.
1 thing that I have been thinking about though that I haven't seen discussed:
Lucic's advanced stats are surprisingly good, but most of the discussion revolves around the forwards he was playing with in Edmonton and who he would likely be playing with here. I am curious about how playing in front of Calgary's puck moving defense will help his game. I'm not sure what kind of stats there are to show the effects of defense on forwards, but even though I don't expect Lucic to have some kind of turn around into an offensive force, I can't help but think that there is an opportunity for him to be effective on the forecheck.
Just a thought.

[Dajazz]

Stop making sense please, I want to be angry.

[TGH44]

Originally Posted by Bingo

make sure you click on the charts, they pop up more clear.

Making sense of the Lucic trade

Guessing this could start a long day for me ...

Great analysis. While not a huge fan of the trade, you can see the reasons that BT made it. Hope he is right and it turns out. If the Flames go on a long playoff run next season, no one will care about this trade. People need to relax and step away from the ledge.

[Timbo]

It’s quite possible that Neal himself did not want to be here.

Coach issues, personality clashes who knows, but I would think that our GM would not abandon ship (Neal) so early into his term where the possibility of Neal returning to form had a good chance. So there was definitely something there IMO.

As for Lucic I wholeheartedly hope it works out here and not that he would be likely playing on the 2nd line, but I can really imagine how much more interesting those chuckie scrums could be with that monster prowling.

[Zoller]

Well written article and if that was all there is too it I would say it's a beneficial trade for both teams.

But the expansion draft implications on the Lucic contract are by far the biggest point of concern about this trade.

[TheIronMaiden]

Treliving Trying to make the best of a bad situation. Good article.

[neo45]

I think Lucic will be an improvement on Neal

But I also think a simple Neal buyout was a better course of action and the cap savings could have been better spent than bringing in Lucic. Optics probably took this option off the table unfortunately.


The Oilers effectively spending 6.5mil on who I consider to be the worst player in the NHL (can’t do anything effectively) is the silver lining here for me.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Zoller

Well written article and if that was all there is too it I would say it's a beneficial trade for both teams.

But the expansion draft implications on the Lucic contract are by far the biggest point of concern about this trade.

Such an obvious concern that I can't imagine that it wasn't discussed. If there was any doubt he wouldn't waive I don't think it would have happened.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Zoller

Well written article and if that was all there is too it I would say it's a beneficial trade for both teams.

But the expansion draft implications on the Lucic contract are by far the biggest point of concern about this trade.

Do you not view that a bit as a "the sky is falling" fear? That's two years away. Look at where our own roster was two years ago. Hell, in one year we've signed Neal and traded him for Lucic.

There's also the fact that plenty of players will be waiving their NMCs for the expansion draft. I think the fears related to the expansion draft are entirely premature.

Thanks for the article Bingo.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by DJones

Such an obvious concern that I can't imagine that it wasn't discussed. If there was any doubt he wouldn't waive I don't think it would have happened.

Look, I am a Treliving fan, but if he doesn’t have an expansion draft plan and made this deal with looking ahead on how this will affect the team, then that would be a fire-able offense. He isn’t that dumb.

I just don’t see Lucic not waiving. He would get paid more with the move, be closer to home, only committed to be there short term...


AND they just straight up are not going to claim him anyways

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by neo45

Look, I am a Treliving fan, but if he doesn’t have an expansion draft plan and made this deal with looking ahead on how this will affect the team, then that would be a fire-able offense. He isn’t that dumb.

I just don’t see Lucic not waiving. He would get paid more with the move, be closer to home, only committed to be there short term...


AND they just straight up are not going to claim him anyways

I agree, in that I don't think the expansion draft is an issue, Treliving is too smart to not have thought about this.

But, the concern is not whether Lucic is claimed. The concern people have is whether a protection slot is wasted on him.

[Zoller]

Originally Posted by neo45

I think Lucic will be an improvement on Neal

But I also think a simple Neal buyout was a better course of action and the cap savings could have been better spent than bringing in Lucic. Optics probably took this option off the table unfortunately.


The Oilers effectively spending 6.5mil on who I consider to be the worst player in the NHL (can’t do anything effectively) is the silver lining here for me.

I think it's safe to say that the Flames ownership group was not willing to buy out Neal.

Fans may not care about real cash but you can bet the ownership group does. I don't think Flames owners are necessarily cheap per se, however, they are not willing to throw that much money away for nothing.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Zoller

I think it's safe to say that the Flames ownership group was not willing to buy out Neal.

Fans may not care about real cash but you can bet the ownership group does. I don't think Flames owners are necessarily cheap per se, however, they are not willing to throw that much money away for nothing.

Then they should seriously just take away Brad’s phone on July 1st, because it seems like half of his deals turn into buyout candidates within the first season

Raymond, Brouwer, Neal etc

[jmerkel3d]

Great article Bingo, I tend to lean to the positive as well.

This one was tough to understand at first but I think I've come around to it. I actually think lucic has a chance to play a pretty significant role in our bottom 6. He's going to be playing with with pretty good players down there and he won't be relied upon to score.

I was hoping for a bounce back from Neal next year, but I don't know if I've ever seen a player give less of a sh*t than Neal did this year. I was always giving him the benefit of the doubt but I just didn't see a player who respected the opportunities he was given on that team. His flybys and coasting and lack of fiestiness was truly cringeworthy every single game. Even when he "tried" to mix it up in the playoffs it looked so forced and awkward. Pure gut feeling, but it never even looked like he really got along with the guys that well, he just kinda felt like a loner and the guys were trying hard to encourage him but it must've been difficult for them when his effort so just so obviously lackluster.

I really hope he doesn't bounce back to score 20 or 30 with the oil, but man, I can do without his attitude. Role for role, I think Milan brings an element to our team that we sorely need, and it has the potential to really pay off. Here's hoping!

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Cheese]

Hate this ####ing #### of a ####ing trade. Dealing with the Oil without a clear ####ing win is just pouring Oil on the Flames.. Lol. Would like to be glass half full but we have spent all of this time watching Milan be so lousy in Edmonton and laughing about it, Stats or not. ####ing #### of a trade.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by the2bears

I agree, in that I don't think the expansion draft is an issue, Treliving is too smart to not have thought about this.

But, the concern is not whether Lucic is claimed. The concern people have is whether a protection slot is wasted on him.

To me, it is not that big of a problem.

First of all, the thought behind honouring his NMC is to make the player feel wanted. It would be kind of a slap in the face to welcome him to Calgary and by the way can we start planning on moving you out now? If he's a part of your plan, make him a part of your plan.

Leading up to expansion, there are a ton of different variables that will play out, but it would be pretty unlikely that the Flames would actually want to be protecting him. So, you tell him that you can't. Even if at the time two more years of Lucic sounds tolerable.

He would have 2 options:
1. Agree to waive
2. Be bought out

The buyout in 2 years is not great, but Lucic can be replaced with a league minimum salary guy as we won't be relying on him for production. So, the Flames actually save cap in this situation. The punitive part of the buyout is done after 2 years, which actually makes it pretty manageable. After the first year of this buyout, the Brouwer buyout comes off the books.

[SeanCharles]

I think this was a good trade because:

- we gained cap space

- when Neal isnt contributing offensively he isnt contributing at all and is in fact more of a detriment

- we lost Hathaway and needed more size, grit, meanness in the lineup

- buying out Neal would have been brutal and I'm glad they didnt do it

- Neal didnt seem to want to be here after seeing how he fit in and got along with the coach. He has a bit of a ego so him being frustrated probably wasnt good for the locker room

- if we got Reeves we would have been paying him approx 2.8 mill, so just picture Lucic as $2.5mill overpaid. Neal was completely dead cap space because Czarnik and Dube were both better, cheaper options in the bottom 6

- Lucic seems to have a better attitude and will embrace a bottom 6 role

- Lucic will in all likelihood waive for the expansion draft otherwise Treliving wouldnt have done the move and/or honored him NMC after the fact

[Enoch Root]

Well written and balanced article, thanks.

One thing tat can't be overstated: "Brad Treliving knows what he's doing". And I would add: "and he does it as thoroughly and methodically as anyone".

The numbers have been crunched, and the scenarios have been considered. And he came to the conclusion that this move improved his team. I agree.

I think, somewhat ironically perhaps, that, as a trade of bad contract for bad contract, this trade will actually help both teams.

He sold low on Neal (likely out of necessity), but he also bought low on Lucic. Should add even more spice to the BOA!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Hate this ####ing #### of a ####ing trade. Dealing with the Oil without a clear ####ing win is just pouring Oil on the Flames.. Lol. Would like to be glass half full but we have spent all of this time watching Milan be so lousy in Edmonton and laughing about it, Stats or not. ####ing #### of a trade.

Which will only make it that much sweeter when he proves to be a useful player for us.