2019-20 Flames roster / cap - something’s gotta give!

[DeluxeMoustache]

There is a thread which is aimed at clarifying the impact of Tkachuk’s bonuses on the cap, and one for what to do with Brodie and Hamonic in the off season. There are also conversations which factor in preparation for the expansion draft in light of the fact that Calgary has so many D that are good, from valuable veterans to cost controlled studs and very promising young D.

The bigger picture I would like to get some opinions on is what happens for next year. Tkachuk is going to get paid, and the Flames, based on their commitments today, don’t have the money to get it, and everything else, done.

Something’s gotta give! Next year’s cap situation is ugly!

On one hand, Tre has some killer value contracts. Johnny, Monny, Lindholm, and Gio are on long term deals that are safe (in the sense that they are money well spent) , and, in my opinion, the envy of the rest of the league. This year, Tkachuk at his ELC looks like the best contract in the NHL.

But... this off season, Tkachuk needs a new contract. Uh oh.

From CapFriendly, it looks like there is approximately 12.5 million to sign the roles with these 2018-19 cap hits:

Key RFAs :
Tkachuk (RFA) - 925 (excl bonuses)
Bennett (RFA) - 1.9

These guys are due for new contracts and we will be watching the rest of this season closely.

Goaltending :
Smith - 4.25
Rittich - 800
- We know Smith disappears, but if Rittich keeps playing like this, then keeping the total G cap hit around 5 is potentially in the cards, with a 1-2 M backup. So these are a wash
- Budget 5 M

Replacement level / depth :
Hathaway - 850
Prout - 800
Mangiapane - 705
- these are replacement level roles that will get equivalent dollars
- Budget 2.3 M minimum

So if the goalies take 5, and the replacement guys take 2.3, that is 7.3 of the 12.5.

Tkachuk and Bennett make about 2.9 today.

Incremental salary available for Tkachuk and Bennett:
- 2.2 M, based on projected CapFriendly numbers (!)
- plus the amount the cap increases for the team

Presumably the Flames need to find around 8-9 Million for Tkachuk and Bennett, or 6 million extra. Where do the Flames find it?

Here are some current contracts:

Neal - 5.75 (4 more yrs)
Brutal value for money so far. Delete him from the picture (which, based on current production, would be easy) and you are almost fine. (Also carrying 1.5 for Brouwer, which freed up one winger slot, which you can argue Neal filled). What an albatross so far!

Backlund - 5.35 (5 more years)
Has been regarded as one of the best 2 way centres in the game by some and a core piece. Keith Tkachuk has seconded how fortunate Matthew is to play with him every night.

Frolik - 4.3 (1 more year)
30 years old now. Has a good pedigree and is delivering value for money. Agent made controversy with some social media mention of his ice time, and referencing him being a good productive team guy.
(Controversial statement: When you look at the signing of Neal and Ryan, plus the pending contract from Tkachuk, then Peters’ use of Frolik, I am inclined to give some credence to the idea that Frolik was/is not in the long term plans. But the value those guys have delivered is debatable. Not to mention they are both older than Frolik!)

Ryan - 3.15 (2 more yrs)
A 32 year old who was coming off a 1 year, 1.4 contract. Which was his only contract above 600 K. Too much for a 4th liner, even if he does win some draws. I know he is Peters’ guy, but at that salary, one could argue he is Peters’ Freddie Hamilton. (WTF was Tre thinking?)

Brodie - 4.65 M (1 year)
Back to elite on his comfortable side. Brodano can’t be denied as a thing of beauty. And Gio having the comfort in his old partner to go from 38.5 points average in full seasons to point per game, you have to be real careful in understanding his value.

Hamonic - 3.86 M (1 year)
Living up to the expectations of acquisition cost and luckily his raise comes after next season.

Stone - 3.5 (1 more year)
Depth defenseman. LTIR now, not in the future plans, I would imagine. Best wishes for a complete recovery. If he gets healthy, he doesn’t fit on my roster next year.

Brodie, Hamonic and Frolik are all being discussed, but all to me are key players and value for money.

Stone also represents 3.5 on the IR which to me, if he is healthy, probably has to be expendable.


Anyways, the Flames are in a bind. Even before seeing how deep they go in the playoffs, they have to find money next year. Something has to give. What is it?


To me, looking at:
- Neal - the team is succeeding without Neal’s offense, and he right now, based on the first half of the season, is the most overpaid and one dimensional player on the roster.
- Ryan - for the handful of extra faceoffs Ryan wins, how many deliver real value to the team? ‘Advanced stats’ we can discuss in another thread.
- Stone - is on LTIR but doesn’t fit next year.

Can Tre get out from under these 3 and generally keep the team intact?

** Also, can we acknowledge that when guys like Stone from Ottawa, or goalies like Bobrovsky or Quick (who are going to be paid) are rumoured to come available, that Tre has a ton of value on great contracts, but still a lot of internal housekeeping to manage this off season? I see pretty much no opportunity to be a buyer of any sort. Fans are going to have to settle for this assembly of awesomeness.

How do you see Tre managing this jam?

[activeStick]

They'll move Stone and Frolik in the summer for prospects and/or picks and be right up against the cap to start the season with some room. Depending on how well Andersson and Valimaki (if he even returns to the big team) perform in the run and playoffs assuming the Flames make it, maybe Treliving also looks at moving out Brodie or Hamonic for prospects and/or picks.

[Itse]

If you buyout James Neal, that saves $3.8m minus what ever his replacement costs.

It might be worthwhile. Or maybe someone will take him off our hands with salary retained.

[Imported_Aussie]

Trade Frolik, he wants out and has value. His contract is backdiving and he would be better than a UFA for a lot of budget teams next year.
E.g. Frolik to Coyotes for Kuemper

Could do this now or offseason, depending on whether priority is a change of 1B goalie for this playoff or keeping 3M for this run. I'd lean towards offseason

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Trade Frolik, he wants out and has value. His contract is backdiving and he would be better than a UFA for a lot of budget teams next year.
E.g. Frolik to Coyotes for Kuemper

Froliks minutes and points are up since the tweets. Right now it looks like he's getting what he wanted and is proving to be worth his minutes.

So it's possible that situation has already resolved itself.

[1qqaaz]

Czarnik doesn't make nothing. He's been okay, but I could see the Flames letting him go after this season.

Frolik might have some value now, and even with his improved play, it might make sense to trade him for cap reasons. With that said, I like Frolik and wouldn't mind if he stayed. He's one of the few people with cap that could actually be moved. He might end up with 20 goals.

Neal, Ryan, and Stone could be tricky to get rid of. I think the Flames would have to pay to get off of the Neal and Ryan contracts, and I don't think it would be worth it. Stone is probably somewhat movable, to an extent. I could see him being a throw-in in a trade.

Brodie has value again, thanks to Giordano. I think he'd be the next best candidate to be moved. I'd rather have him around, because the Flames need good depth for a deeper playoff run. But if it has to be done, Brodie could make sense.

Next would be Backlund, and I think this is really starting to push it. I would rather Backlund stay. At least for now.

[Bleeding Red]

On thing I noticed on Capfriendly - it has next years cap at $79.5 mil. Isn't the consensus for next year's cap in the $83 mil range? That's $4 mil extra.

I also don't think a Neal buyout is in the cards. You're stuck with a $2 mil hit for 6 years. It also sends out a bad message. And unless (when) he wins the SC and the CS, I don't think Rittich is in a position to command $4+ mil. 2 years at $2.5 maybe.

If they go far this year I would try to make the case to keep Bennett under $2.5 pay Tkachuk and roll with the pretty much the same roster for 1 year, then walk away from the UFAs next year.

It really all hinges on this years playoffs and next years cap.

[bubbsy]

I think Frolik, stone are likely gone.

I also think one of hamonic/Brodie will be moved, question is just when.

I'm not overly concerned. When the best 3 players on the team (Giordano, Monahan, Gaudreau) are all under $7M, you are in good shape. Really regret that neal deal though.

[dissentowner]

Frolik and Stone are gone for sure although you don't move them until the offseason as we need to keep them for our run to the SC final. I am not sure what else BT will do. I am glad that is an SEP.

[Matty81]

Cap is going up 3.5 million so the flames actually have 16 Mil in space.

I think they will move Stone out somehow and that will resolve their cap issues.

If they can move Neal they will have room to enhance.

I think the road to moving Neal is trading him retained. I think if he has even one decent stretch this year a team will take him for 3-3.5 Mil. Flames eat a couple Mil and move him. Same savings as a buyout but no cap hit beyond the term of the contract.

Disaster signing for sure. If that doesn't happen. I see him getting sent down eventually and a compliance buyout at the next expansion draft.

[keenan87]

Trade Frolik and Stone.. Bennett shouldn't be paid very much above 2sh million. Problem solved.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Itse

If you buyout James Neal, that saves $3.8m minus what ever his replacement costs.

It might be worthwhile. Or maybe someone will take him off our hands with salary retained.

Ownership is NOT wasting 23 million to buy out Neal, and then keep part of his salary cap as dead cap space for god knows how long.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

Ownership is NOT wasting 23 million to buy out Neal, and then keep part of his salary cap as dead space for god knows how long.

I think they will buy him out but not until the compliance window and only if the flames are in contention and bringing in playoff money. Cost then will only be 11 Mil or so. In the meanwhile I think they will need to make it work for two years or find a retention trade.

If I had to guess I think he'll have one more year with the flames putting up 20 points and spend his last year in the minors. He just looks too slow for the game.

But if he has a hot streak and can hit 15 goals or does well in the playoffs maybe someone will take him at 3.5 Mil per year this offseason. Saves a lot of money for owners and buys cap space.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I think they will buy him out but not until the compliance window and only if the flames are in contention and bringing in playoff money. Cost then will only be 11 Mil or so. In the meanwhile I think they will need to make it work for two years or find a retention trade.

If I had to guess I think he'll have one more year with the flames putting up 20 points and spend his last year in the minors. He just looks too slow for the game.

But if he has a hot streak and can hit 15 goals or does well in the playoffs maybe someone will take him at 3.5 Mil per year this offseason. Saves a lot of money for owners and buys cap space.

That only accounts for 3/5 years though.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Itse

Froliks minutes and points are up since the tweets. Right now it looks like he's getting what he wanted and is proving to be worth his minutes.

So it's possible that situation has already resolved itself.

I think he was a candidate to be moved this offseason before the tweets. Some salary has to be moved out and he and Stone are the obvious candidates.

[David Struch]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Presumably the Flames need to find around 8-9 Million for Tkachuk and Bennett, or 6 million extra. Where do the Flames find it?

2019-20 Flames:

Gaudreau 6,75 Monahan 6,375 Lindholm 4,85
Tkachuk 7,5 Backlund 5,35 Frolík 4,3
Bennett 2,5 Jankowski 1,675 Neal 5,75
Dubé ,778 Ryan 3,125 Czarnik 1,25
Mangiapane ,705

Giordano 6,75 Brodie 4,65
Hanifin 4,95 Hamonic 3,857
Välimäki ,894 Andersson ,755
Kylington ,730 Stone 3,5

Rittich 2,5
Gillies ,750

Salary Cap $83,000,000
Cap Hit $81,746,708
Buyouts $1,500,000
Bonuses $747,500
Cap Space $1,253,292

If anything, we move out a contract for some more breathing room.

[Finger Cookin]

Next season's cap has been initially projected at $83M, so $2.5-ish is reasonable to expect to just magically appear as cap room for next year with no action taken by the Flames.

So if the goalies take 5, and the replacement guys take 2.3, that is 7.3 of the 12.5.

The goalies probably take more like 3.5-3.8. That would mean $6M of ~$15M is space is used up. Leaving $9M to sign Tkachuk and Bennett, everything else remaining equal. That's challenging, but hardly insurmountable. Even just something as simple as burying Stone frees up another $1.075 which should get both forwards signed without any other roster moves.

[spuzzum]

Tkachuk 7,5 -> love Chucky but be prepared for a huge payday. He and his family will not be giving us any kind of discount. North of 9 million. If we can get him in the 8 to 9 mil range, absolute steal.

Tkachuk is quietly putting up such amazing numbers, plays not even on the 1st line, gritty style, with only room to grow.

Stone and Frolik will be traded to ensure Flames flexibility.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by David Struch

2019-20 Flames:

Gaudreau 6,75 Monahan 6,375 Lindholm 4,85
Tkachuk 7,5 Backlund 5,35 Frolík 4,3
Bennett 2,5 Jankowski 1,675 Neal 5,75
Dubé ,778 Ryan 3,125 Czarnik 1,25
Mangiapane ,705

Giordano 6,75 Brodie 4,65
Hanifin 4,95 Hamonic 3,857
Välimäki ,894 Andersson ,755
Kylington ,730 Stone 3,5

Rittich 2,5
Gillies ,750

Salary Cap $83,000,000
Cap Hit $81,746,708
Buyouts $1,500,000
Bonuses $747,500
Cap Space $1,253,292

If anything, we move out a contract for some more breathing room.

I've always loved Rittich, but that goaltending tandem looks pretty scary to me...

Assuming Chia gets fired, who's going to trade for a 7th d-man who makes 3.5 million a year? This is why I was against the contract when it was signed... crunched our cap, blocked youngsters, and we paid an additional draft pick for retaining him

[blender]

Tkachuk is great to watch and have on the team, but I am not seeing him at north of 8m.
I know the cap is going up, but so has scoring, so his PPG numbers aren't as impressive as they would have been even last season. Ie: he a top 20-30 scorer rather than a top 5-10.
Flames may not get him for 8 years, but that may be the price to pay to keep the AAV down. I'm expecting 7m per year max.