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Old 07-11-2018, 06:13 PM   #2081
GreenLantern2814
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I hope Ferland gets $12 or $16 million next July 1, and I hope to God it isn't from us.
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Old 07-11-2018, 07:18 PM   #2082
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Ferland is a guy that is a middle 6 forward with a great shot that can contribute with skilled players and add some grit to your lineup.

I do think the Flames tried to sell high on Ferland though - thinking that his point totals for the season last year may have been a little inflated.

I looked at his 20 game splits over the last two seasons:

16/17

Game 1-20: G-3 A-5 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 21-40: G-2 A-1 P-3 0.15 PPG

Game 41-60: G-7 A-1 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 61 - 76: G-3 A-3 P-6 0.38 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-8 A-4 P-12 - 0.6 PPG

Game 21-40: G-9 A-4 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-3 A-7 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 77: G-1 A-6 P-7 0.4 PPG

IMO Ferland falls more into line of a 0.4 PPG player (~32 pts) which falls into 2nd/3rd line territory. 5 of his last 8 20 game segments had him producing in that range.

At the top end with ultra skilled linemates on a really good line he had a 40 game stretch where he produced at a 0.6PPG clip (~50 pt season) but it's hard to tell if that was sustainable for him.

What I think the Flames thought is that his true skill set is closer to that of a 32 point player, than the 50 pt pace he was on after the first 40 games of the season and wanted to try to sell on him as the 20 goal 40 pt player - opposed to more of a 15 goal, 30 point guy that is more in line with his historical skill set.

With Lindholm I think the Flames are banking on more consistency and more upside.

16/17

Game 1-20: G-2 A-5 P-9 0.45 PPG

Game 21-40: G-3 A-13 P-16 0.8 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-12 P-14 0.8 PPG

Game 61 - 72: G-2 A-4 P-6 0.5 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-5 A-5 P-10 - 0.5 PPG

Game 21-40: G-6 A-8 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-6 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 81: G-1 A-10 P-11 0.52 PPG

Less peaks and valleys with Lindholm - more consistently in that 0.5 PPG range. And while Ferland had 0.6 PPG in his hot streaks, those peaked up around 0.8 PPG for Lindholm.

Some of it has to do with Lindholm getting a lot more PP time. Over the last two seasons Ferland had 10 PPP (in 178 minutes) Lindholm had 20 PPP (in 371 minutes) but he put up 13 more points at ES and SH compared to Ferland as well (identical 153 GP). Plus with Lindholm being a RH C/RW who is 2 1/2 years younger I think that is where that part of the trade off made even more sense for the Flames.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 07-11-2018 at 07:21 PM.
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Old 07-11-2018, 07:53 PM   #2083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
Ferland is a guy that is a middle 6 forward with a great shot that can contribute with skilled players and add some grit to your lineup.

I do think the Flames tried to sell high on Ferland though - thinking that his point totals for the season last year may have been a little inflated.

I looked at his 20 game splits over the last two seasons:

16/17

Game 1-20: G-3 A-5 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 21-40: G-2 A-1 P-3 0.15 PPG

Game 41-60: G-7 A-1 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 61 - 76: G-3 A-3 P-6 0.38 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-8 A-4 P-12 - 0.6 PPG

Game 21-40: G-9 A-4 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-3 A-7 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 77: G-1 A-6 P-7 0.4 PPG

IMO Ferland falls more into line of a 0.4 PPG player (~32 pts) which falls into 2nd/3rd line territory. 5 of his last 8 20 game segments had him producing in that range.

At the top end with ultra skilled linemates on a really good line he had a 40 game stretch where he produced at a 0.6PPG clip (~50 pt season) but it's hard to tell if that was sustainable for him.

What I think the Flames thought is that his true skill set is closer to that of a 32 point player, than the 50 pt pace he was on after the first 40 games of the season and wanted to try to sell on him as the 20 goal 40 pt player - opposed to more of a 15 goal, 30 point guy that is more in line with his historical skill set.

With Lindholm I think the Flames are banking on more consistency and more upside.

16/17

Game 1-20: G-2 A-5 P-9 0.45 PPG

Game 21-40: G-3 A-13 P-16 0.8 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-12 P-14 0.8 PPG

Game 61 - 72: G-2 A-4 P-6 0.5 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-5 A-5 P-10 - 0.5 PPG

Game 21-40: G-6 A-8 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-6 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 81: G-1 A-10 P-11 0.52 PPG

Less peaks and valleys with Lindholm - more consistently in that 0.5 PPG range. And while Ferland had 0.6 PPG in his hot streaks, those peaked up around 0.8 PPG for Lindholm.

Some of it has to do with Lindholm getting a lot more PP time. Over the last two seasons Ferland had 10 PPP (in 178 minutes) Lindholm had 20 PPP (in 371 minutes) but he put up 13 more points at ES and SH compared to Ferland as well (identical 153 GP). Plus with Lindholm being a RH C/RW who is 2 1/2 years younger I think that is where that part of the trade off made even more sense for the Flames.
Worth noting too is context. I loved watching Ferland, but if we're talking counting stats while playing first line minutes , those numbers look even more suspect
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