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Old 07-11-2018, 07:13 PM   #2081
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I hope Ferland gets $12 or $16 million next July 1, and I hope to God it isn't from us.
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:18 PM   #2082
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Ferland is a guy that is a middle 6 forward with a great shot that can contribute with skilled players and add some grit to your lineup.

I do think the Flames tried to sell high on Ferland though - thinking that his point totals for the season last year may have been a little inflated.

I looked at his 20 game splits over the last two seasons:

16/17

Game 1-20: G-3 A-5 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 21-40: G-2 A-1 P-3 0.15 PPG

Game 41-60: G-7 A-1 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 61 - 76: G-3 A-3 P-6 0.38 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-8 A-4 P-12 - 0.6 PPG

Game 21-40: G-9 A-4 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-3 A-7 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 77: G-1 A-6 P-7 0.4 PPG

IMO Ferland falls more into line of a 0.4 PPG player (~32 pts) which falls into 2nd/3rd line territory. 5 of his last 8 20 game segments had him producing in that range.

At the top end with ultra skilled linemates on a really good line he had a 40 game stretch where he produced at a 0.6PPG clip (~50 pt season) but it's hard to tell if that was sustainable for him.

What I think the Flames thought is that his true skill set is closer to that of a 32 point player, than the 50 pt pace he was on after the first 40 games of the season and wanted to try to sell on him as the 20 goal 40 pt player - opposed to more of a 15 goal, 30 point guy that is more in line with his historical skill set.

With Lindholm I think the Flames are banking on more consistency and more upside.

16/17

Game 1-20: G-2 A-5 P-9 0.45 PPG

Game 21-40: G-3 A-13 P-16 0.8 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-12 P-14 0.8 PPG

Game 61 - 72: G-2 A-4 P-6 0.5 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-5 A-5 P-10 - 0.5 PPG

Game 21-40: G-6 A-8 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-6 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 81: G-1 A-10 P-11 0.52 PPG

Less peaks and valleys with Lindholm - more consistently in that 0.5 PPG range. And while Ferland had 0.6 PPG in his hot streaks, those peaked up around 0.8 PPG for Lindholm.

Some of it has to do with Lindholm getting a lot more PP time. Over the last two seasons Ferland had 10 PPP (in 178 minutes) Lindholm had 20 PPP (in 371 minutes) but he put up 13 more points at ES and SH compared to Ferland as well (identical 153 GP). Plus with Lindholm being a RH C/RW who is 2 1/2 years younger I think that is where that part of the trade off made even more sense for the Flames.

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Old 07-11-2018, 08:53 PM   #2083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
Ferland is a guy that is a middle 6 forward with a great shot that can contribute with skilled players and add some grit to your lineup.

I do think the Flames tried to sell high on Ferland though - thinking that his point totals for the season last year may have been a little inflated.

I looked at his 20 game splits over the last two seasons:

16/17

Game 1-20: G-3 A-5 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 21-40: G-2 A-1 P-3 0.15 PPG

Game 41-60: G-7 A-1 P-8 0.4 PPG

Game 61 - 76: G-3 A-3 P-6 0.38 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-8 A-4 P-12 - 0.6 PPG

Game 21-40: G-9 A-4 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-3 A-7 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 77: G-1 A-6 P-7 0.4 PPG

IMO Ferland falls more into line of a 0.4 PPG player (~32 pts) which falls into 2nd/3rd line territory. 5 of his last 8 20 game segments had him producing in that range.

At the top end with ultra skilled linemates on a really good line he had a 40 game stretch where he produced at a 0.6PPG clip (~50 pt season) but it's hard to tell if that was sustainable for him.

What I think the Flames thought is that his true skill set is closer to that of a 32 point player, than the 50 pt pace he was on after the first 40 games of the season and wanted to try to sell on him as the 20 goal 40 pt player - opposed to more of a 15 goal, 30 point guy that is more in line with his historical skill set.

With Lindholm I think the Flames are banking on more consistency and more upside.

16/17

Game 1-20: G-2 A-5 P-9 0.45 PPG

Game 21-40: G-3 A-13 P-16 0.8 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-12 P-14 0.8 PPG

Game 61 - 72: G-2 A-4 P-6 0.5 PPG

17-18

Game 1-20: G-5 A-5 P-10 - 0.5 PPG

Game 21-40: G-6 A-8 P-13 0.65 PPG

Game 41-60: G-4 A-6 P-10 0.5PPG

Game 61 - 81: G-1 A-10 P-11 0.52 PPG

Less peaks and valleys with Lindholm - more consistently in that 0.5 PPG range. And while Ferland had 0.6 PPG in his hot streaks, those peaked up around 0.8 PPG for Lindholm.

Some of it has to do with Lindholm getting a lot more PP time. Over the last two seasons Ferland had 10 PPP (in 178 minutes) Lindholm had 20 PPP (in 371 minutes) but he put up 13 more points at ES and SH compared to Ferland as well (identical 153 GP). Plus with Lindholm being a RH C/RW who is 2 1/2 years younger I think that is where that part of the trade off made even more sense for the Flames.
Worth noting too is context. I loved watching Ferland, but if we're talking counting stats while playing first line minutes , those numbers look even more suspect
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:01 PM   #2084
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This is an article from The Athletic (Dom Luszczyszyn), which ranks teamsí offseasons based on their changes in collective game score. I put this here because he ranks Calgary down mostly because of the Dougie Hamilton trade. He calls Hamilton the Flames former best defenceman. I argued the same thing prior to the trade and am very interested to see how his absence actually affects the team. I think a lot of people assume Giordano was making that first pairing go based on the eye test whereas the numbers suggest it was both Giordano and Hamilton. Hopefully the eye test is right and our first pairing doesnít take too much of a crash.

Calgary Flames: C-
In: James Neal, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik
Out: Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, Kris Versteeg, Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma
Net Value Added: -0.5 wins

The Flames started the offseason with a thud, trading their best defenseman for two decent players who werenít all that close to his value. That they packaged the capable Micheal Ferland and the promising Adam Fox in the deal made even less sense.

Thatís a large hole to dig out of (minus-1.8 wins), but Calgary managed to bridge the gap with the rest of its offseason, by adding a decent trio of forwards. James Neal could be a slam dunk on the right wing next to Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau (though the term of his contract is alarming), Derek Ryan is a nice fit as the third line centre, and Austin Czarnik has shown potential in the AHL.

Itís enough not to fail the Flames for their summer, but the team is still worse than the one that finished last season. Calgary bolstered its forward group, but it was at the expense of one of the leagueís best defence groups, one that looks pretty mediocre outside of Mark Giordano and now Noah Hanifin. The Flames plugged holes up front, but created new ones on defence.

Thereís enough talent here that the Flames are still a likely playoff team, but they were arguably more than that in a weak division before trading one of the leagueís best defenders.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:09 PM   #2085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson View Post
This is an article from The Athletic (Dom Luszczyszyn), which ranks teamsí offseasons based on their changes in collective game score. I put this here because he ranks Calgary down mostly because of the Dougie Hamilton trade. He calls Hamilton the Flames former best defenceman. I argued the same thing prior to the trade and am very interested to see how his absence actually affects the team. I think a lot of people assume Giordano was making that first pairing go based on the eye test whereas the numbers suggest it was both Giordano and Hamilton. Hopefully the eye test is right and our first pairing doesnít take too much of a crash.

Calgary Flames: C-
In: James Neal, Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik
Out: Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, Kris Versteeg, Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma
Net Value Added: -0.5 wins
Hamilton over Giordano is kind of argumentative, but the author kind of blows his credibility right there in the bolded part. How can you claim that to be a "out" when he played for a completely different team last season? Obviously doesn't follow the hockey team and does his research with a spreadsheet.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:11 PM   #2086
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson View Post
This is an article from The Athletic (Dom Luszczyszyn), which ranks teamsí offseasons based on their changes in collective game score. I put this here because he ranks Calgary down mostly because of the Dougie Hamilton trade. He calls Hamilton the Flames former best defenceman. I argued the same thing prior to the trade and am very interested to see how his absence actually affects the team. I think a lot of people assume Giordano was making that first pairing go based on the eye test whereas the numbers suggest it was both Giordano and Hamilton. Hopefully the eye test is right and our first pairing doesnít take too much of a crash...
I think most are optimistic that the changes have actually provided a massive improvement to the forward group, while mitigating the subtraction from the defense. Yes, Hamilton is an excellent defenseman all on his own, and yes, Giordano helped him tremendously. I tend to think that the improvement up front will more than make up for whatever was lost in Dougie Hamilton. I also think the coaching change and historic regressions to the mean (shooting percentages, and the improbable awfulness of the powerplay) will provide significant, tangible results that extend well beyond a change in personnel.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:12 PM   #2087
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I have a hard time taking that author seriously as he gave the Oilers a marginally better grade literally for doing nothing.


Edmonton Oilers: C
In: Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak
Out: Brandon Davidson, Mike Cammalleri, Iiro Pakarinen
Net Value Added: -0.4 wins

On the one hand, one of last season’s biggest disappointments did absolutely nothing to make sure it doesn’t repeat the same failure this season.

On the other hand, Edmonton didn’t make any laughably misguided trades this summer which is a step in the right direction.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:13 PM   #2088
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I don't know if I agree that Hamilton was the team's best defenseman as that's Gio and I also disagree that Hamonic, Brodie, and Stone are mediocre. Brodie and Hamonic at least are above average defenders. Is this guy a legit writer or another basement blogger? Seems a little uninformed.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:15 PM   #2089
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It’s enough not to fail the Flames for their summer, but the team is still worse than the one that finished last season.

lol okay.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:19 PM   #2090
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None of the advanced stats bloggers were going to like the Flames off-season.

They all love Hamilton, see him as at worst a top 20 d-man in the league. Plus they seem to be down on Hanifin because he was a bit sheltered last season - forgetting that he's only 21 and came into the league at 18.

Don't think it means they are not credible, just that the advanced stats community as a whole really loved Dougie Hamilton.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:19 PM   #2091
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toonage View Post
I have a hard time taking that author seriously as he gave the Oilers a marginally better grade literally for doing nothing.


Edmonton Oilers: C
In: Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak
Out: Brandon Davidson, Mike Cammalleri, Iiro Pakarinen
Net Value Added: -0.4 wins

On the one hand, one of last seasonís biggest disappointments did absolutely nothing to make sure it doesnít repeat the same failure this season.

On the other hand, Edmonton didnít make any laughably misguided trades this summer which is a step in the right direction.

Summers not over yet!
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:27 PM   #2092
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People need to ease up a little bit on Dom here. He is an analytics guy, but he is also a very good writer. He makes it clear at the beginning of the article that the entire grading system is based upon his Game Score Model which is quite complex and relies on a variety of factors. He actually sends out win/lose percentages every day during the regular season which can be quite interesting to follow as well as standings predictions.

With that being said as with all analytical models used for prediction- there are flaws. Dougie Hamilton was an advanced stats darling and that is probably why he has the Flames taking such a hit.

I think Treliving's thoughts are that by getting Brodie back with Gio and on the right side he can return to form and essentially replace what Hamilton brought (or close to). Hanifin has the potential to grow into a player like Hamilton one day, but for now hopefully he can find some chemistry with Hamonic and cement himself on the second pairing.

No question the forwards have improved, but there is still a lot of mystery surrounding this team. I can't wait to get the season going.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:28 PM   #2093
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Hamilton is easily the best player in the deal. But there's so much more then stats at play when this trade occurred. Anyone who follows the Flames knew that a shift in culture was needed. Something needed to be done to shakeup that dressing room. The team under-performed to a large extent and bringing back the same crew wasn't going to solve anything.

I haven't read the article, but I'm going to assume (correct me if I'm wrong) that the locker room situation or 'give a crap meter' wasn't addressed in the write up. Hamilton is a great player. But it is universally known among followers of the team that the Flames needed players who hate to lose and will give it their all to win. Hamilton puts up points. But he doesn't have that extra gear that you need when the going gets tough. I'll actually probably miss Ferland more, because he has shown to have that extra gear and can play playoff-style hockey.

Whether Hanafin or Lindholm have that extra gear and hate to lose mentality remains to be seen. I really haven't watched them play all that much. But I'm certain BT recognised something was missing in the locker room and that he's certain these new guys will have it.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:30 PM   #2094
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^ Jury is still out on whether the downgrade on the back end can be more than offset by the potentially increased offense. We are going to need at least 25 games I'd say to evaluate the changes.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:38 PM   #2095
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I don't think this trade can be properly assessed for a couple more seasons. Hanifin is the same age as Kylington yet has 239 NHL games to his name. There's a good chance he's just scratching the surface in all aspects of his game.

And IMO, anyone who thinks Dougie was our best defenceman didn't watch a lot of Flames games last year. Gio was our best player most nights, let alone best defenceman.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:38 PM   #2096
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This is the epitome of advanced stats guys who must not actually watch the games. His conclusions seem lazy frankly.

Hamilton is elite at what he does well, but the questions surrounding his defensive awareness and effort are legitimate. Not to mention his willingness to be a part of a winning team apparently. I think we'll look back in a couple years with an improving Hanifin and be really happy overall.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:39 PM   #2097
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Hamilton is easily the best player in the deal. But there's so much more then stats at play when this trade occurred. Anyone who follows the Flames knew that a shift in culture was needed. Something needed to be done to shakeup that dressing room. The team under-performed to a large extent and bringing back the same crew wasn't going to solve anything.
Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:42 PM   #2098
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I get that the article is prefaced by saying that it is based on Game Score numbers. But is illustrates one of the huge problems that hockey analytics currently faces: it makes the analytics the story instead of using the analytics as a tool in making a better story.

First of all, suggesting the team is less talented than last year is laughable. But ignoring that, the primary argument is that the team is worse because DH had better Game Score numbers than the guys coming in. Well sure, but let's not forget that the guys acquired are younger, which in itself is a plus. And let's not forget linemates, quality of competition, etc. Everyone who plays (significantly) with Giordano has better numbers. Period.

The argument goes around and around. Anyone who looks at stats, instead of watching him play, considers him to be one of the premier defensemen in the league. And therefore doesn't like the trade. But the vast majority of people who evaluate him by actually watching him play every night feel differently or very differently.

Oh, and it's worth repeating: suggesting the team is less talented than last year is laughable.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:46 PM   #2099
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The most important change the Flames made this off season was, hands down, behind the bench. There isn’t an advanced stat in existence suited to quantifying the effect that change will have.
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Old 07-23-2018, 03:48 PM   #2100
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Calgary bolstered its forward group, but it was at the expense of one of the league’s best defence groups, one that looks pretty mediocre outside of Mark Giordano and now Noah Hanifin. The Flames plugged holes up front, but created new ones on defence.
This statement is hilarious and makes no sense. “The Flames defence is mediocre outside of Giordano and Hanifin, but they were amazing with Giordano and Hamilton”. It contradicts itself so hard and the author doesn’t even realize it. It’s the exact same group either way.

Find me one defence core that doesn’t look mediocre when you remove two of its best D.
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