Let's talk Box Office

[nfotiu]

The 3d thing is a double edged sword. There’s got to be a pretty large portion of the population who has sworn off 3d by now. If the message is it’s only worth seeing in 3d, it just turns off a lot of people.

The 3:10 run time was a bit of an arrogant move if they cared about selling tickets to the masses. My family would probably check it out if it was 2:30, but 3:10 is too much to ask for casual fans of the original.

I’d bet on it coming just short of top gun world wide. A decent run through the holidays and big drop off after new year’s seems likely.

[OutOfTheCube]

I think Puss in Boots is set to have a pretty good run, honestly. Looks more interesting than the tripe Disney/Pixar have been putting out recently, great family friendly counter-programming to Avatar (in both content and run time), the 'Shrek' franchise has been dormant for a while too.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

The 3d thing is a double edged sword. There’s got to be a pretty large portion of the population who has sworn off 3d by now. If the message is it’s only worth seeing in 3d, it just turns off a lot of people.

The 3:10 run time was a bit of an arrogant move if they cared about selling tickets to the masses. My family would probably check it out if it was 2:30, but 3:10 is too much to ask for casual fans of the original.

I’d bet on it coming just short of top gun world wide. A decent run through the holidays and big drop off after new year’s seems likely.

Well if people are turned off by things that look cool because reasons then I guess the spectacle of the theatre isn’t for them in the first place. That kind of the whole point of blockbusters.

I can see how the run time is problematic for people who can’t sit still or comfortably that long but whatever. No one is forcing anyone to go. If Cameron wanted a 3 hour movie then the choice is to go see it or don’t. I don’t think he’s real worried about it.

[Engine09]

Chinook theater closed due to flooding, looks like they're not open again until Fri.

Just in case anyone was planning on hitting the IMAX.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

The 3d thing is a double edged sword. There’s got to be a pretty large portion of the population who has sworn off 3d by now. If the message is it’s only worth seeing in 3d, it just turns off a lot of people.

The 3:10 run time was a bit of an arrogant move if they cared about selling tickets to the masses. My family would probably check it out if it was 2:30, but 3:10 is too much to ask for casual fans of the original.

I’d bet on it coming just short of top gun world wide. A decent run through the holidays and big drop off after new year’s seems likely.

Avatar 3d is different. It's based around entire environments designed for 3d.

Totally different experience than just a action movie with a random object going your way.

[GGG]

Box office of 16.25 on Monday and looking like 18.3 on Tuesday.

This is about 1.25 million less than Rogue One and a bigger Sunday/Monday drop but .75 more and an increase rather than staying flat for Tuesday. Following Rogue Ones daily performance from here on out gets about 515 million.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GGG

Box office of 16.25 on Monday and looking like 18.3 on Tuesday.

This is about 1.25 million less than Rogue One and a bigger Sunday/Monday drop but .75 more and an increase rather than staying flat for Tuesday. Following Rogue Ones daily performance from here on out gets about 515 million.

The big difference is the international vs domestic. A2 has more than double the domestic box office internationally. Rogue one had a pretty even domestic/international split.

I also think we see much better legs with A2, as it's far more family orientated.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by blankall

The big difference is the international vs domestic. A2 has more than double the domestic box office internationally. Rogue one had a pretty even domestic/international split.

I also think we see much better legs with A2, as it's far more family orientated.

I’ve never followed international legs closely and just pick splits then add in China. If you look at Avatar 1 and then adjust for the rise of value in the US dollar you come out with a 32/68 split plus China.

I’m using R1 as a domestic reference point as the Christmas days line up and the grosses are similar.

I do wonder if the 3:10 run time makes it’s less family friendly in a similar way to the violence in R1. Following the R1 logic gets you to about 1.7 Billion all in.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Well if people are turned off by things that look cool because reasons then I guess the spectacle of the theatre isn’t for them in the first place. That kind of the whole point of blockbusters.

I can see how the run time is problematic for people who can’t sit still or comfortably that long but whatever. No one is forcing anyone to go. If Cameron wanted a 3 hour movie then the choice is to go see it or don’t. I don’t think he’s real worried about it.

It can cause certain people to get migraines

There is a risk of migraines that comes from watching a 3D movie, according to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Neurology. In fact, people who suffer from migraines have more than three times the risk of developing a 3D-induced headache compared to most other moviegoers. (Young women were also found to be at higher risk.) While more research needs to be done to determine the specific reasons behind this finding, it has been suggested that possible causes could be light sensitivity, eye strain, the movie’s frame speed, intensity of the film’s visual effects and the way images are projected through the 3D glasses required to view these films.

https://www.themigraineinstitute.com...20view%20these

[Nadal Fan]

I actually wanted to see this but at 3hrs long I'll probably just wait for it on 4K but yikes what a terrible opening weekend

https://twitter.com/user/status/1607773608503562244

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

I actually wanted to see this but at 3hrs long I'll probably just wait for it on 4K but yikes what a terrible opening weekend

https://twitter.com/user/status/1607773608503562244

Yikes. That has to be one of the worst bombs of all time. This is likely a wait until it comes out on Netflix type of movie for most people.

I must admit, Margot Robbie doing another accent isn't really all that appealing for me.

[GGG]

The last 3 days Avatar beat R1 dailies so it appears heading into this weekend it will exceed R1 legs and get to a minimum of 513.

It’s starting to catch NWH now with 19.5 on Thursday vs NWHs 20.7. If it can behave like NWH the rest of the way it would earn another 250 million. Getting it to 608. If it holds its 70/30 int/dom split it makes 2 billion

[Nadal Fan]

It's prediction time, give me what you think the top 5 movies at the box office will be plus one surprise hit and which one will be the biggest bomb of the year.. ...

Top 5 World Wide:

1) Little Mermaid
2) Mission Impossible
3) Fast X
4) The Marvel's
5) Aquaman 2

Surprise hit: Barbie
Bomb:Wonka

[KTrain]

I might throw Super Mario Bros in there before Marvels and/or Aquaman. That franchise crosses over multiple generations. A lot of guys my age who played it growing up will want to see it just as much as their kids.

[Nadal Fan]

Originally Posted by KTrain

I might throw Super Mario Bros in there before Marvels and/or Aquaman. That franchise crosses over multiple generations. A lot of guys my age who played it growing up will want to see it just as much as their kids.

I have a feeling Mario will do well, but I think it will preform like Sonic and finish in the say 300mill range world wide.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GGG

The last 3 days Avatar beat R1 dailies so it appears heading into this weekend it will exceed R1 legs and get to a minimum of 513.

It’s starting to catch NWH now with 19.5 on Thursday vs NWHs 20.7. If it can behave like NWH the rest of the way it would earn another 250 million. Getting it to 608. If it holds its 70/30 int/dom split it makes 2 billion

A2 is behaving more like Avatar 1 at this point. I say it beats 2 billion easy. Should be at 1.7 billion by the end of next weekend.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

It's prediction time, give me what you think the top 5 movies at the box office will be plus one surprise hit and which one will be the biggest bomb of the year.. ...

Top 5 World Wide:

1) Little Mermaid
2) Mission Impossible
3) Fast X
4) The Marvel's
5) Aquaman 2

Surprise hit: Barbie
Bomb:Wonka

I think you're being way too optimistic with Little Mermaid. The rest of Disney's live action remakes have ranged from average to awful. I don't think people will be lining up for it, it will need to be amazing and live on word-of-mouth to go deep

My prediction is that Avatar 2 has legs similar to the first and it stays as the highest grossing movie for 2023

[Johnny Makarov]

Disney can eff off with all these live remakes. complete garbage.

[Nadal Fan]

I agree they have all been bad but they have all made bank. Lion King made over $1.6 Billion I can see Mermaid coming close to that

[Sr. Mints]

Originally Posted by Nadal Fan

I have a feeling Mario will do well, but I think it will preform like Sonic and finish in the say 300mill range world wide.

I dunno... every household on the planet has owned a Nintendo and played a Mario game at some point during the past 35 years. Plus It's something relatively new, not another comic genre or sequel - and the trailer was spectacular. It has a lot going for it.

I'd bet Mario will do *massive* numbers, upwards of $1B worldwide.